本文選題：堵河上游流域　切入點(diǎn)：基流　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：水土流失是全球化的重大環(huán)境問題。水土流失與水環(huán)境惡化、河道功能的破壞和洪澇災(zāi)害的發(fā)生具有聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng),嚴(yán)重影響人類生存環(huán)境和生態(tài)安全。流域產(chǎn)流產(chǎn)沙是衡量水土流失的重要指標(biāo),受多種因素影響,包括氣候、地形、土壤、土地利用等,其中,氣候因素能夠在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間尺度上對(duì)流域水沙演變產(chǎn)生重要影響,而土地利用變化則是短期內(nèi)人類活動(dòng)影響水沙最直接的表現(xiàn)形式。研究流域產(chǎn)流產(chǎn)沙對(duì)土地利用變化的響應(yīng)并定量分析其耦合關(guān)系,是當(dāng)前環(huán)境背景下流域管理的基礎(chǔ)。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)水資源的宏觀調(diào)配,我國(guó)啟動(dòng)了南水北調(diào)中線工程,其水源區(qū)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)相對(duì)脆弱,面臨潛在的水土流失、洪澇頻發(fā)等環(huán)境問題的困擾。本文以水源區(qū)典型流域——堵河流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,在國(guó)內(nèi)外水沙響應(yīng)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)地形地貌、氣象水文、土地利用和土壤等數(shù)據(jù),借助地理信息等技術(shù)手段并結(jié)合野外調(diào)查建立流域空間和屬性數(shù)據(jù)庫,選取Soil and Water Assessment Tools(SWAT)模型進(jìn)行無資料區(qū)域水沙模擬,選擇雙參數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布函數(shù)進(jìn)行極端水文非穩(wěn)定頻度分析,綜合采用偏最小二乘回歸等多元回歸工具量化了流域土地利用對(duì)產(chǎn)流產(chǎn)沙變化的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn)。論文取得的主要成果有:(1)以南水北調(diào)中線水源區(qū)堵河上游流域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象,在子流域尺度上基于GIS平臺(tái)求得土地利用面積轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和空間轉(zhuǎn)移圖并分析了土地利用空間變化特征,結(jié)果表明,1990年代林地的砍伐受到林分與道路和航道距離的影響,耕地和城鎮(zhèn)用地多沿河道增加,2000年代國(guó)家退耕還林政策實(shí)施后,部分坡度大于25°的耕地轉(zhuǎn)換為林地;與基線期(1980年代)相比,耕作期(1990年代)子流域土地利用空間變異程度增加,而生態(tài)恢復(fù)期(2000年代)土地利用空間變異程度在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步增加,同時(shí)導(dǎo)致了土地利用格局的空間變化。(2)以堵河上游流域卡口站——竹山站和內(nèi)部的新洲水文站長(zhǎng)時(shí)間逐日徑流數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),借助“Bflow.exe”數(shù)字濾波程序進(jìn)行基流分割,將自動(dòng)校準(zhǔn)和手動(dòng)校準(zhǔn)相結(jié)合進(jìn)行月尺度徑流和基流深度的SWAT模型校正和驗(yàn)證,進(jìn)而預(yù)測(cè)107個(gè)子流域基流深度,結(jié)果表明,在流域尺度,堵河上游流域基流系數(shù)為0.358(竹山站)和0.364(新洲站),竹山站和新洲站在1980年代、1990年代、2000年代的月均基流深度分別為19.0和17.9、14.7和13.3、16.6和15.7mm,月間差異明顯;在子流域尺度,swat徑流和基流模型有較好的模擬效能,基線期(1980年代的土地利用)、耕作期(1990年代的土地利用)和生態(tài)恢復(fù)期(2000年代的土地利用)下的子流域月均基流深度分別為16.9、18.4和15.9mm,基線期基流深度空間變異程度最低,生態(tài)恢復(fù)期最高。(3)結(jié)合偏最小二乘回歸在子流域尺度上量化土地利用對(duì)基流的相對(duì)重要性,結(jié)果表明,土地利用是基流變化的重要影響因素,林地、耕地和城鎮(zhèn)用地對(duì)基流的影響顯著且均呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,其中林地的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn)最大,灌叢、草地和未利用地對(duì)基流的作用不顯著;對(duì)于林地被農(nóng)田所取代的區(qū)域,蒸散量的強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間的降低導(dǎo)致基流增加,對(duì)于林地轉(zhuǎn)化為城鎮(zhèn)用地的區(qū)域,城鎮(zhèn)用地對(duì)基流的負(fù)面作用被無貢獻(xiàn)的不透水表面所削弱,基流增加;耕地和城鎮(zhèn)用地對(duì)基流的相對(duì)重要性因季節(jié)而異,在夏季,耕地蒸散量較大,對(duì)基流產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面作用大于城鎮(zhèn)用地,在其他季節(jié),耕地的作用小于城鎮(zhèn)用地。(4)在swat月尺度徑流模型的基礎(chǔ)上校驗(yàn)日尺度徑流,并獲取107個(gè)子流域逐日徑流數(shù)據(jù),選用年最大徑流深度序列并借助雙參數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)正態(tài)分布函數(shù)和極大似然估計(jì)進(jìn)行非穩(wěn)定性極端徑流分析,在不同重現(xiàn)期下定量分析土地利用對(duì)極端徑流事件頻次的影響,結(jié)果表明,徑流極值分位數(shù)分布規(guī)律在不同重現(xiàn)期下差異明顯,2年重現(xiàn)期下,徑流極值分位數(shù)從西南向東北部降低,在20年、100年和1000年重現(xiàn)期,較高的徑流極值分位數(shù)出現(xiàn)在西北和東南部;各個(gè)年代的極端徑流事件頻次在較小或較大重現(xiàn)期內(nèi)呈現(xiàn)相似的變化規(guī)律,而較小和較大重現(xiàn)期之間則表現(xiàn)出明顯差異,1980年代極端徑流風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高,2000年代最低,洪水季明顯高于平水季;土地利用對(duì)極端徑流事件頻次的影響隨重現(xiàn)期的增加而減弱,當(dāng)重現(xiàn)期大于100年,土地利用類型和極端徑流事件不存在顯著相關(guān)關(guān)系,在較低重現(xiàn)期下,林地能顯著降低極端徑流事件頻次,耕地和城鎮(zhèn)用地則能夠增加極端徑流風(fēng)險(xiǎn),草地、灌叢、未利用地對(duì)極端徑流事件的影響不顯著,在較大重現(xiàn)期下,水庫等水利設(shè)施能夠?qū)O端徑流事件產(chǎn)生重要影響。(5)在swat徑流模型的基礎(chǔ)上校驗(yàn)了產(chǎn)沙和泥沙輸移比模型,借助偏最小二乘回歸探討了堵河上游流域土地利用組成和格局對(duì)特定產(chǎn)沙的相對(duì)重要性。基于土地利用和自然地理特征選擇了19種詮釋性指數(shù)在子流域尺度下進(jìn)行分析,借助變量對(duì)投影的影響(vip)值識(shí)別和量化影響因子對(duì)特定產(chǎn)沙變化的相對(duì)貢獻(xiàn),結(jié)果表明,堵河上游流域土地利用組成和格局對(duì)特定的土壤侵蝕量的影響最大,解釋了65.2%的特定產(chǎn)沙量的變化,VIP值表明,子流域尺度下對(duì)特定產(chǎn)沙起主控作用的第一順序因子為:耕地和林地所占的面積百分比、斑塊密度、香農(nóng)多樣性指數(shù)、土壤可蝕性、蔓延度、高程積分值、土壤飽和導(dǎo)水率,流域面積對(duì)泥沙輸移比影響顯著,香農(nóng)多樣性指數(shù)、蔓延度和高程積分值同樣對(duì)泥沙輸移比有重要影響。
[Abstract]:Soil erosion is a major environmental problem of globalization. Soil erosion and deterioration of water environment, river function damage and occurrence of flood disaster has linkage effects, serious impact on the living environment of mankind and ecological security. Runoff and sediment is an important indicator of soil erosion, affected by many factors, including climate, topography, soil, land use, the climate factors can be in a long time scale of basin water and sediment evolution have an important impact, and the land use change is the short-term impact of human activities is the most direct form of water and sediment. The research of runoff and sediment in response to land use changes and quantitative analysis of the coupling relationship is the watershed management foundation under the background of the current environment. In order to realize the macro allocation of water resources, our country started the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, the water area ecosystem is relatively fragile, facing the potential of soil Flood loss, frequent environmental problems. Based on the typical basin water district, blocking the river basin as the research object, based on the domestic and foreign research on the response of sand, according to topography, meteorology and hydrology, land use and soil data, with geographical information technology and combining the field investigation of the watershed spatial and attribute database select the Soil and Water Assessment, Tools (SWAT) model was presented to simulate the water and sediment regional data, choose two parameter lognormal distribution function for unsteady extreme hydrological frequency analysis, using partial least square regression regression tool to quantify the relative contribution of the land use change of runoff and sediment. The main achievements of this paper are: (1) in the water source area blocking river basin as the research object, in the sub basin scale based on the GIS platform to obtain land use area transfer The transfer matrix and the spatial map and analysis of land use spatial variation, the results show that the forest felling is affected by the 1990s stand with road and waterway distance, cultivated land and urban land along the river, in 2000s the national policy of returning farmland to forest after the implementation of conversion part of slope greater than 25 degrees and cultivated land; baseline period (1980s) compared with the cultivation period (1990s) increase the spatial variability of land use sub basin, and ecological recovery period (2000s) further increases the spatial variation of land use degree, which leads to the land use spatial pattern changes. (2) to block the river basin bayonet - Xinzhou daily runoff hydrological data Zhushan station and station time inside the basis of base flow separation by means of "Bflow.exe" digital filtering process, the automatic calibration and manual calibration combined monthly scale size SWAT model flow and base flow depth calibration and validation, and to predict the 107 sub basins of base flow depth, results show that the basin scale blocking river basin base flow coefficient is 0.358 (Zhushan station) and 0.364 (Xinzhou station), Zhushan station and Xinzhou station in 1980s, 1990s, 2000s the average monthly basic flow the depth were 19 and 17.9,14.7 and 13.3,16.6 and 15.7mm, the obvious differences among months; scale in the sub watershed, runoff and base flow SWAT model has better simulation performance, baseline (land use, cultivation period (1980s) of land use in 1990s) and ecological restoration period (land use in 2000s) under the sub Basin the average monthly flow depth were 16.9,18.4 and 15.9mm, baseline based flow depth spatial variability and the lowest level of ecological restoration stage is the highest. (3) combined with partial least squares regression were used to quantify the relative importance of the basic flow of land in the sub basin scale, the Show that the land use is an important influence factor, the change of the base flow of woodland, arable land and urban land on the base flow significantly and the relationship is negative, the relative contribution of forest, shrub, grassland and unused land on base flow is not significant; for forest farmland replaced region. Reduce the evapotranspiration intensity and duration of the resulting increase in base flow, for the conversion of forest land into urban land area, impervious surface weakened by the negative effects of urban land use on the base flow is no contribution, base flow increased; the relative importance of cultivated land and urban land based on flow varies seasonally in the summer. A large amount of cultivated land, evapotranspiration, negative effect produced on base flow is greater than the urban land, in other seasons, the role of land less than urban land. (4) based on SWAT monthly runoff model calibration on scale runoff, and obtain 107 sub basins daily The annual runoff data, the maximum runoff depth sequence and with two parameter lognormal distribution function and maximum likelihood estimation of non stability analysis in the period of extreme runoff, quantitative analysis of the effects of land use, the results show that the frequency of extreme runoff events in different return, runoff extreme quantile distribution in different return period differences, 2 year return period, runoff extreme quantile decreased from southwest to northeast, in 20 years, 100 years and 1000 return period, the higher the runoff extreme quantile in the northwest and Southeast; extreme runoff events in each frequency in smaller or larger reproduction period showed a similar variation, and between the small and the larger the return period exhibited significant differences in 1980s, the highest risk of extreme runoff, the lowest in 2000s, the flood season was significantly higher than that of normal water season; land use frequency of extreme runoff events With the increase of the return period of the influence weakened when the return period of more than 100 years, the land use types and extreme runoff events have no significant correlation, at low return periods, forest land can significantly reduce the frequency of extreme runoff events, cultivated land and urban land can increase the risk of extreme runoff, shrub, grassland, unused land the impact of extreme runoff events is not significant in a large return period, reservoirs and other water conservancy facilities can have an important impact on the extreme runoff events. (5) based on the SWAT Model on the calibration of runoff sediment production and sediment delivery ratio model by partial least squares regression of blocking river basin land use pattern and composition the specific sediment yield. The relative importance of land use and natural geographical feature selection 19 interpretive index analysis in sub basin scale based on the impact of variables on the projection (VIP) and the amount of value identification The relative contribution of specific factors on sediment production results show that the effect of blocking river basin land use composition and pattern on soil erosion in particular the maximum, to explain the variation of the specific sediment yield of 65.2%, VIP values show that the sub basin scale of specific sediment yield from the first order factor controlling effect as the percentage of area of cultivated land and forest land accounted for the patch density, Shannon diversity index, soil erodibility, spreading degree, elevation integral value, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, the basin area of significant sediment transport ratio influence, Shannon's diversity index, contagion and the integral value of the same height on sediment delivery ratio has the important influence.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P333

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本文編號(hào)：1711252