發(fā)布時間：2018-01-02 03:00

  本文關鍵詞：環(huán)境變化對區(qū)域水循環(huán)要素及水資源演變影響的研究　出處：《天津大學》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 氣候變化 下墊面變化 徑流 水汽含量 降水-徑流多元回歸模型 SWAT分布式水文模型

【摘要】：氣候變化和下墊面變化是流域環(huán)境變化的兩個主要方面,流域環(huán)境的變化已導致水資源發(fā)生了改變。研究環(huán)境變化對區(qū)域水循環(huán)要素及水資源演變的影響,不僅對緩解和適應環(huán)境變化的有關措施和行動具有重要的科學支撐價值,而且對水資源科學管理具有重要的實踐意義。本文選取灤河潘家口水庫上游流域為研究對象,分析流域水循環(huán)要素的時空變化規(guī)律,并結合降水-徑流多元回歸模型和流域SWAT分布式水文模型,分別研究流域下墊面變化和氣候變化對流域水資源情勢的影響。主要研究內容及成果如下:(1)運用Mann-Kendall檢驗法、滑動平均法對灤河流域的氣溫、降雨量時序變化的趨勢性進行了檢驗;采用統(tǒng)計學方法,對氣溫、降雨量的年內年際變化等演變特征進行了分析。結果顯示:1957~2012年灤河流域年平均氣溫總體呈上升趨勢,氣溫年內周期性變化明顯,各月份平均氣溫差異較大。1957~2012年灤河流域年平均降水量呈減少的趨勢,流域降水量年內分配具有明顯的季節(jié)性。(2)利用土地利用綜合程度指數(shù)、時空演變模型、轉移矩陣、動態(tài)度模型、空間分析模型等方法,探討灤河流域土地利用的趨勢變化、轉移方向的變化、數(shù)量變化等演變特征。結果表明:從土地利用程度綜合指數(shù)及時空演變模型的角度來看,1970~1980年處于發(fā)展期,而1980~2000年、2000~2004年處于調整期或衰退期。從轉移矩陣、地類流向及來源方向進行分析可知,前兩個時段各地類多數(shù)來源于自身并流向自身。從動態(tài)度模型來看,2000~2004年轉移速率與新增速率最大,各地類間變化最為頻繁。(3)在解譯NCEP再分析數(shù)據(jù)資料的基礎上,估算了海灤河流域上空1948~2010年的水汽含量及水汽通量,并利用線性滑動平均法和線性趨勢回歸分析方法,探討海灤河流域上空水汽含量及水汽通量的時空變化規(guī)律。據(jù)計算結果可知,海灤河流域近63年平均水汽含量變化非常明顯,雖然呈波動變化,但總體呈下降趨勢。四季水汽含量占全年的水汽含量的比例分別為春季19.31%,夏季50.33%,秋季22.91%,冬季7.45%。結果表明,海灤河流域水汽通量變化趨勢與水汽含量變化趨勢相似,海灤河流域的緯向水汽輸入遠遠大于經(jīng)向水汽輸入。(4)考慮灤河流域三道河子水文站控制流域的降水-徑流相關特性,基于流域1961~2011年實測月降雨、月徑流數(shù)據(jù)資料,利用降水-徑流雙累積曲線及K-S雙樣本檢驗的結果,分別建立了流域豐水期和枯水期的降水-徑流多元回歸模型。應用該模型,分別探討流域降水的豐枯變化和下墊面變化對徑流的影響。結果表明,在1961~1983年的下墊面條件下,相比于1961~1983年間的降水豐枯特征,1984~1999年、2000~2011年間降水的豐枯變化使得流域徑流分別增加了8.08%和減少了25.34%;在1961~1983年的降水條件下,相對于1961~1983年的下墊面條件,1984~1999年、2000~2011年間的下墊面的改變使得流域徑流分別減少了19.40%和43.16%。(5)構建了灤河流域SWAT分布式水文模型,模型在率定期和驗證期的相關系數(shù)均在0.70以上,說明該模型能夠滿足模型模擬的精度要求。在該模型的基礎上,分析流域土地利用變化特征、確定流域降雨的趨勢變化并剔除其影響,探討流域土地利用變化對水資源情勢的影響。結果顯示,由于退耕還林、退耕還草以及城市化進程加快的地類變化的趨勢,僅由于土地利用/覆被變化導致流域年徑流量同比減少了58.55%。該結果表明,土地利用變化對灤河流域水資源情勢有較大的影響。(6)基于流域分布式水文模型,并運用時間序列分析法及任意假定法設計氣候情景試驗,研究流域氣候變化對水資源情勢的影響。結果顯示:在氣溫升高1oC或2oC情景下,徑流量變化率分別為-7.11%和-9.11%;日均降水量增加或減少10%時,流量變化率分別為17.56%和-33.03%。在氣溫增加1oC或2oC、降水增加10%的情景下,徑流量變化率分別為15.17%和13.19%。結果表明,降水量對灤河流域徑流的變化起著主導作用,溫度的影響較小。
[Abstract]:Climate change and the change of the underlying surface are two main aspects of watershed environmental changes, changes in ecological environment has led to changes in water resources. The study of environmental changes on regional water cycle factors and evolution of water resources, not only the relevant measures and actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change has important scientific value and support. It has important practical significance to the scientific management of water resources. This paper selects the upstream Luanhe River Panjiakou Reservoir as the research object, analysis of temporal and spatial variation of water cycle factors in river basin, combined with the rainfall runoff regression model and watershed distributed hydrological model SWAT, respectively studies the influence situation of watershed underlying surface change and climate change on water resources in the basin the main research contents and results are as follows: (1) the Mann-Kendall inspection method, the method of moving average temperature of Luanhe River Basin, rainfall time series change trend The potential of the inspection; by using statistical methods on temperature, evolution characteristics of interannual variation within a year of rainfall were analyzed. The results showed that 1957~2012 in Luanhe River Basin average annual temperature of the overall upward trend, cyclical changes in temperature, average air temperature of each month in the larger.1957~2012 years the average annual rainfall in Luanhe River basin the decreasing trend of precipitation distribution of the year has obvious seasonal. (2) using the comprehensive index of land use degree, spatio-temporal evolution model, transfer matrix, dynamic model, spatial analysis model and other methods, to explore the trend of land use change in Luanhe River Basin, change direction, the evolution character of quantity etc. from the model. The results showed that the comprehensive index of land use degree and spatio temporal evolution perspective, 1970~1980 years in development period, 1980~2000 years, 2000~2004 years in a period of adjustment or recession. From the transfer matrix, analysis of the types of flows and sources, the first two hours of the most from their own. And the flow from the dynamic model, the maximum transfer rate of 2000~2004 and the new rate, around the inter class changed most frequently. (3) based on the interpretation of the NCEP reanalysis data on the estimation of water vapor content and water vapor flux over the sea of Luanhe River Basin during 1948~2010, and the linear moving average method and linear trend regression analysis method to investigate the temporal and spatial variation of Luanhe River Basin over the sea water vapor content and water vapor flux. According to the results, the sea of Luanhe River Basin in the recent 63 years, the average water vapor content is very obvious, though fluctuated, but the overall downward trend. Four water vapor content accounted for the proportion of the annual water content were 19.31% in spring, 50.33% in summer, 22.91% in autumn and winter of 7.45%.. The results show that the sea Luan River Basin water vapor flux and water vapor variation tendency is similar, the Hailuanhe Valley zonal water vapor input is far greater than the meridional water vapor input. (4) consider the Luanhe River Basin three control sub river basin hydrological station rainfall runoff correlation, watershed 1961~2011 measured monthly rainfall based on the monthly runoff data, using precipitation runoff cumulative curves and K-S two sample test results, the basin dry season and flood season rainfall runoff regression model was established. Using this model, respectively to investigate the effects of wet and dry change of rainfall and underlying surface change on runoff. The results showed that the surface conditions in 1961~1983 next, compared to 1961~1983 years of precipitation, 1984~1999, runoff change between 2000~2011 precipitation makes runoff were increased by 8.08% and reduced by 25.34%; in 1961~1983 years under rainfall conditions, With respect to the underlying conditions, 1961~1983 years 1984~1999 years 2000~2011 years, the underlying surface because of the change of runoff decreased by 19.40% and 43.16%. (5) to construct the SWAT distributed hydrological model of Luanhe River Basin, the correlation coefficient in the model calibration and verification period were above 0.70, which shows that the model can meet the requirements of the model simulation precision. On the basis of the model, analysis the characteristics of land use change basin, determine the trend change of rainfall and eliminate the effect of land use change on the water resources situation. The results showed that the conversion of farmland to forests, returning farmland to grassland and the change of city to speed up the process of the kind of trend, because only land use / cover change in annual runoff decreased by 58.55%. the results showed that the land use change has great impact on water resources in the Luanhe River Basin (6) based on the current situation. The domain of distributed hydrological model, and the application of time series method assumes that design climate scenario test method and the arbitrary analysis of watershed impacts of climate change on water resources situation. The results showed that when the temperature increased 1oC or 2oC scenarios, the runoff rates were -7.11% and -9.11%; average daily precipitation increase or decrease 10%, flow the change rate is respectively 17.56% and -33.03%. increased 1oC or 2oC in temperature, precipitation increased 10% scenarios, the runoff rates were 15.17% and 13.19%.. The results show that precipitation plays a dominant role on the change of the runoff, temperature has little effect.

【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P339;TV213

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