本文關(guān)鍵詞：考慮有限理性的活動—出行配流模型研究　出處：《南京大學》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 活動-出行分配 準動態(tài)用戶均衡 動態(tài)用戶均衡 超網(wǎng)絡(luò) 有限理性 前景理論 參照依賴理論 可接受規(guī)則 異質(zhì)性

【摘要】：城市道路網(wǎng)絡(luò)中交通流量的時空分布是出行者在參與活動的需求驅(qū)動下,在時間、城市空間、天氣、交通政策等約束下,對活動內(nèi)容、活動目的地、到達活動目的地的出行路徑、出行方式、出發(fā)時間等內(nèi)容進行選擇的結(jié)果。本文基于行為決策理論對微觀出行者活動-出行有限理性選擇行為進行描述,基于交通分配均衡理論對宏觀活動-出行流量的分布進行研究：同時,考慮到出行者之間存在的差異性是影響活動-出行時空分布多樣性的重要因素,從不同角度對考慮出行者異質(zhì)性的活動-出行分配問題進行了研究,主要內(nèi)容如下：(1)首先,闡述出行者的活動-出行決策內(nèi)容與決策過程,結(jié)合行為決策理論分析活動-出行決策過程中的有限理性行為,并基于歸因理論分析影響微觀個體決策以及宏觀流量分布的因素；分析結(jié)果認為,有限理性主要體現(xiàn)在出行者對活動-出行備選方案集的有限感知、備選方案的價值評估、可能狀態(tài)的主觀感知以及非“最優(yōu)”的決策原則四個方面,各行為決策理論則考慮了一個或幾個方面的有限理性行為,比如,前景理論描述了決策者對備選方案價值評估與可能狀態(tài)的主觀感知兩個方面的有限理性行為；另外,客觀備選方案的多樣性以及個體之間或者個體本身的決策差異性是影響宏觀流量分布多樣性的兩個主要因素。(2)然后,分析了描述出行者活動-出行決策內(nèi)容的多種超網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu),并根據(jù)研究的時間范圍以及離散時間間隔的長度將基于超網(wǎng)絡(luò)的活動-出行分配理論模型進行了分類；分析表明,多狀態(tài)多模式超網(wǎng)絡(luò)具有較強的靈活性和可擴展性,適用于解決long-term的交通規(guī)劃、交通需求預測等問題：而時空擴展超網(wǎng)絡(luò)則在考慮擁堵的交通問題、short-term的交通管控問題中具有較好的應用性。(3)根據(jù)上述分析,首先對不確定性條件下的活動-出行配流問題進行了研究,回顧了描述不確定狀態(tài)下出行者有限理性行為的前景理論與累積前景理論；應用簡化的多狀態(tài)多模式超網(wǎng)絡(luò)表述出行者活動-出行的時空序列；假設(shè)出行時間與活動時長分別服從一定的隨機分布,基于累積前景理論定義了活動-出行路徑效用函數(shù),提出了參照點離散內(nèi)生的靜態(tài)用戶均衡模型,并通過算例分析了算法的收斂性以及模型的性質(zhì)。(4)其次,對考慮出行者感知誤差的準動態(tài)活動-出行配流問題進行了研究,基于參照依賴理論描述出行者參照依賴的出行路徑、出發(fā)時間、活動內(nèi)容以及活動目的地等問題的選擇行為；假設(shè)出行者之間具有不同的參照點,提出了參照點異質(zhì)的準動態(tài)隨機用戶均衡模型；該模型將時間離散劃分為時間間隔較長的序列,假設(shè)每個時間段內(nèi),出行者完成對出行路徑、出發(fā)時間、活動內(nèi)容以及活動目的地的選擇,并通過算例對模型的性質(zhì)進行了分析；(5)再次,考慮到隨著移動互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,出行者對各出行模式的出行時間、費用的感知近似完全信息,對動態(tài)活動-出行配流問題進行研究�；趨⒄找蕾嚴碚撁枋龀鲂姓邔Τ鲂蟹绞健⒊霭l(fā)時間、活動內(nèi)容以及活動目的地等問題的選擇行為；將時間離散劃分為時間間隔很短的序列,假設(shè)出行者之間具有不同的參照點,提出了參照點異質(zhì)內(nèi)生的動態(tài)用戶均衡模型,并與無參照點及參照點異質(zhì)外生兩種情況進行了對比；通過算例對比分析了無參照點、參照點外生與參照點內(nèi)生下的流量分布狀態(tài),結(jié)果表明,參照點以及出行者對不同屬性的損失規(guī)避程度對出發(fā)時間、出行方式選擇的影響較大；(6)最后,考慮到不同的出行者具有不同的選擇集合,對考慮決策集異質(zhì)的動態(tài)活動-出行配流問題進行了研究。基于可接受規(guī)則描述出行者非“最優(yōu)”決策目標的有限理性行為；假設(shè)出行者具有不同的出行方式選擇集合,提出了決策集異質(zhì)的可接受動態(tài)用戶均衡模型；另外,新型交通出行方式的出現(xiàn)(如專車、共享車等)使得出行者在出行方式?jīng)Q策集上的異質(zhì)性更為顯著,將free-floating共享車作為出行者的分類依據(jù),基于可接受規(guī)則提出了考慮共享車的動態(tài)活動-出行配流模型；討論了各活動地點共享車供需的動態(tài)交互過程、定價、停車收費機制等問題；并通過兩個算例分析了模型的性質(zhì),結(jié)果表明,共享模式的定價、活動地點的屬性、停車費用等因素對共享車的選擇以及活動-出行選擇結(jié)果影響較大。
[Abstract]:City road network traffic flow distribution is travelers participate in the activities of demand driven, at the time, the space of the city, weather, traffic policy under the restrictions of activities, activities reached the destination, travel route, destination travel activities, departure time etc. were selected based on the results. The behavioral decision theory of micro traveler activity travel limited rational choice behavior was described, the equilibrium traffic assignment theory to study the distribution of activity travel based on traffic: at the same time, important factors to take into account the difference between the traveler is activity travel distribution diversity, has conducted the research to consider Walker heterogeneous activity travel distribution problem from different angles, the main contents are as follows: (1) first, this traveler's activity travel decision content and decision-making process, combined with the line Activity travel limited rational behavior in decision-making process for decision making analysis, and based on the attribution theory analysis of the impact of macro factors and micro individual decision-making flow distribution; the analysis results indicated that the limited rationality is mainly reflected in the traveler on the activity travel options set a limit value perception, evaluation of alternatives, the subjective perception of possible state the decision and the principle of non "optimal" four aspects of the behavioral decision theory is considered the limited rational behavior, one or several aspects such as prospect theory describes the decision value of limited rational behavior two aspects of subjective perception and evaluation of possible states of alternative price; in addition, the difference of decision objective alternative diversity as well as between individuals or individuals themselves are two main factors affecting the flow distribution of macro diversity. (2) and then describes the analysis Super network structure a variety of Walker activity travel decision content, and according to the scope of the time and the discrete time interval length will exceed the network activity travel distribution model based on the theory of classification; analysis showed that multi state multi model super network has strong flexibility and scalability, is suitable for solving the traffic long-term planning, traffic demand forecasting: temporal expansion of super network in consideration of traffic congestion, and has better application traffic control problem in short-term. (3) according to the above analysis, firstly, under conditions of uncertainty of the activity travel assignment problem is studied, reviewed the description of uncertain conditions the prospect theory of bounded rationality behavior and cumulative prospect theory; application of simplified multi state multi model super network express time series travel activities - the assumption of a walker; Time and activity time obeys certain distribution, cumulative prospect theory defines the activity travel path based on utility function, put forward reference static user equilibrium model of discrete endogenous, and through the example analysis of the convergence of the algorithm and the properties of the model. (4) second, to consider a quasi dynamic activity - Walker perceptual error travel assignment problem is studied, according to dependency theory describe the travel path, travel reference dependent departure time based on choice behavior, activities and activities to such problems; with different reference points between hypothesis travel, the quasi dynamic stochastic user equilibrium model reference point heterogeneity; the model will be divided into discrete time sequence of a time interval, assuming that each time traveler completed on route, departure time, activities and activities The choice of properties and cases of model was analyzed through calculation; (5) once again, considering with the development of mobile Internet technology, the traveler on the trip mode of travel time, the cost of the perception of near perfect information, carry out research on the dynamic activity travel assignment problem. Reference dependence theory to describe the traveler on the way to travel, the departure time based on the choice behavior of activities and activities to such problems; will be divided into discrete time series of short time interval, assuming that travelers have different reference points, put forward according to dynamic user equilibrium model of heterogeneous endogenous, and with no reference points and reference points exogenous heterogeneity was done in two cases; through the example comparative analysis on the reference point, reference points and reference points of endogenous exogenous flow distribution. The results show that the reference point and travel to different genus The loss aversion on the departure time, influence the choice of travel mode greatly; (6) finally, considering that different travelers have different sets of choices of dynamic activity travel decision in heterogeneous assignment problem is studied. The acceptable rules describe the limited rational behavior of non optimal decision target Walker based on the hypothesis; travelers have different travel mode choice set, put forward the decision set of heterogeneous acceptable dynamic user equilibrium model; in addition, the new travel mode (such as car, car sharing etc.) makes the traveler on the way to travel on the heterogeneity of the decision set is more significant, free-floating car sharing as according to the classification of walkers, acceptable rules considering dynamic activities - sharing car travel assignment model based on; discuss the venue share dynamic delivery of supply and demand interaction process Pricing, parking fee mechanism and other issues. Two examples are given to analyze the characteristics of the model. The results show that factors such as pricing of shared mode, location of activities, parking cost and other factors have great influence on the choice of shared cars and the result of activity trip selection.

【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491
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本文編號：1394539