本文選題：高空天氣系統(tǒng)　切入點(diǎn)：防災(zāi)減災(zāi)　出處：《北方民族大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：為適應(yīng)氣象業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展需求,提高氣象業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)能力,結(jié)合現(xiàn)代天氣預(yù)報(bào)業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展形勢(shì),進(jìn)一步探索高空天氣系統(tǒng)自動(dòng)分析算法和技術(shù)。位于對(duì)流層中層的500hPa高空天氣系統(tǒng)對(duì)氣象防災(zāi)減災(zāi)尤為重要,本文在氣象部門人工分析經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)500hPa層面急流研究一套科學(xué)、可行的自動(dòng)分析算法,改變氣象從業(yè)人員借助計(jì)算機(jī)人工繪制急流的現(xiàn)狀。進(jìn)一步提高氣象部門整體業(yè)務(wù)分析效率,在一定程度上提高預(yù)報(bào)、預(yù)警業(yè)務(wù)自動(dòng)化水平。借鑒前人所做工作,本文研究的內(nèi)容如下:首先,根據(jù)本文亟需解決的問(wèn)題構(gòu)建數(shù)學(xué)模型并生成算法流程圖,利用氣象部門業(yè)務(wù)平臺(tái)普遍使用的MICAPS第11類格點(diǎn)風(fēng)場(chǎng)矢量數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理,按照國(guó)家氣象中心發(fā)布的500hPa急流人工分析的技術(shù)要求識(shí)別出急流區(qū)域。在急流區(qū)域內(nèi),借鑒氣象領(lǐng)域流線追蹤算法進(jìn)行急流初選節(jié)點(diǎn)追蹤。其次,借助天氣學(xué)方法、動(dòng)力學(xué)方法、計(jì)算機(jī)圖形學(xué)及計(jì)算機(jī)圖像處理技術(shù)等相關(guān)學(xué)科的基本方法,在遵循天氣動(dòng)力學(xué)理論約束的前提下,提出了以單位矢量法和經(jīng)緯度加權(quán)平均方法為核心進(jìn)行急流天氣系統(tǒng)自動(dòng)分析的算法。利用急流區(qū)追蹤出的初選節(jié)點(diǎn),經(jīng)過(guò)節(jié)點(diǎn)劃分、急流節(jié)點(diǎn)計(jì)算、噪聲節(jié)點(diǎn)剔除、急流繪制等步驟,解決了諸多關(guān)鍵性問(wèn)題,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)500hPa急流自動(dòng)分析的算法研究。最后,選取2013至2015年間MICAPS第11類格點(diǎn)矢量數(shù)據(jù),利用本文提出的方法對(duì)高空天氣系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行急流自動(dòng)分析實(shí)驗(yàn),并將本文研究算法得出的結(jié)果與多年從業(yè)的氣象預(yù)報(bào)員的結(jié)果做了定量分析計(jì)算。計(jì)算結(jié)果達(dá)到了研究預(yù)期目標(biāo),相對(duì)于氣象人員人工繪制的方式,提高了工作效率,提升了氣象領(lǐng)域自動(dòng)化分析水平。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the needs of the development of meteorological services and improve the service capacity of meteorological services, combined with the development situation of modern weather forecasting business, The automatic analysis algorithm and technology of upper air weather system are further explored. The 500 HPA high altitude weather system located in the middle troposphere is particularly important for meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the artificial analysis experience of meteorological department, This paper studies a set of scientific and feasible automatic analysis algorithm for the jet stream at 500hPa level, which changes the present situation of meteorologists drawing jet stream manually by computer, further improves the efficiency of overall operational analysis of meteorological department, and improves the forecast to a certain extent. The content of this paper is as follows: firstly, according to the problems that need to be solved in this paper, the mathematical model is constructed and the algorithm flow chart is generated. The data are preprocessed by using the MICAPS type 11 grid wind vector data commonly used on the operational platform of meteorological department, and the jet area is identified according to the technical requirements of manual analysis of 500hPa jet issued by the National Meteorological Center. Using the streamline tracing algorithm in the meteorological field for reference to track the jet primary nodes. Secondly, with the help of weather methods, dynamics methods, computer graphics, computer image processing technology and other related basic methods, Based on the constraints of the theory of synoptic dynamics, an algorithm for automatic analysis of jet weather system based on unit vector method and longitude and latitude weighted averaging method is proposed. The calculation of jet nodes, the elimination of noise nodes and the rendering of jet flow have solved many key problems and finally realized the algorithm of automatic analysis of 500hPa jet flow. Finally, the 11th lattice vector data of MICAPS from 2013 to 2015 are selected. The method proposed in this paper is used to carry out the automatic analysis experiment of the jet current in the upper air weather system, and the results obtained by the algorithm in this paper and the results of the meteorological forecasters who have been employed for many years are quantitatively calculated. The calculated results reach the expected goal of the research. Compared with the manual drawing method, the work efficiency is improved and the level of automatic analysis in meteorological field is improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方民族大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P409

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