本文關(guān)鍵詞： 壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)模型 定額趨勢(shì)法 水資源承載能力　出處：《長(zhǎng)春工程學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：飲馬河是第二松花江的主要支流,位于東北黑土地核心區(qū),是東北老工業(yè)基地和國(guó)家主要的糧食基地。為更好地實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口與環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,本文在參閱大量文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)國(guó)內(nèi)外水資源承載能力的研究方法,選取壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)(PSR)模型對(duì)飲馬河流域水資源承載能力進(jìn)行研究。首先開(kāi)展了流域水資源現(xiàn)狀評(píng)價(jià);然后根據(jù)流域內(nèi)各縣鎮(zhèn)2014年社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)情況,運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)定額法對(duì)2020年及2030年需水量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè);最后建立評(píng)價(jià)飲馬河流域水資源承載能力的指標(biāo)體系,將模型建立于Visual Basic6.0平臺(tái)上進(jìn)行水資源承載能力求解。基于社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)、生態(tài)環(huán)境與水環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的原則,計(jì)算出水資源承載能力,結(jié)合定額趨勢(shì)法所求需水量,確定飲馬河流域2020年、2030年的水資源承載能力。該項(xiàng)研究主要的成果有:1.飲馬河流域現(xiàn)狀年水資源較為充足。2014年總用水量為5.98×108m3,總供水量為9.73×108m3,水資源總量為13.43×108m3,水資源開(kāi)發(fā)利用率為72.49%。經(jīng)過(guò)計(jì)算,飲馬河流域水資源可利用總量為6.89×108m3。2.通過(guò)運(yùn)用定額趨勢(shì)法對(duì)飲馬河流域2020年及2030年需水量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),可得到總需水量依然呈現(xiàn)逐年遞增的趨勢(shì)。預(yù)測(cè)2020年總需水量為6.52×108m3,2030年總需水量為7.18×108m3。3.結(jié)合PSR模型計(jì)算成果,基于水資源供水量進(jìn)行水資源承載能力分析。2020年飲馬河流域總供水量為7.53×108m3,總需水量為6.57×108m3,余水量為0.96×108m3。2020年飲馬河流域水資源較為充足�？梢猿休d2020年社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展用水需求。即可承載人口數(shù)量為186萬(wàn)人,人均用水量353m3,可承載GDP約為1253.3億元,可承載生態(tài)環(huán)境面積2123km2。2030年飲馬河流域總供水量為7.65×108m3,總需水量為7.70×108m3,缺水量為0.053×108m3,與PSR模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果相比超載人口數(shù)為12970人,超載GDP為12.97億元,超載生態(tài)面積為18.9公頃。針對(duì)2030年水資源供需水量不平衡情況,應(yīng)當(dāng)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),優(yōu)先發(fā)展低耗水、高產(chǎn)值的企業(yè),嚴(yán)格控制高耗水、低產(chǎn)值的企業(yè)上馬,適當(dāng)減少萬(wàn)元工業(yè)增加值用水量,大力推廣節(jié)水技術(shù),提高水資源承載能力。
[Abstract]:Yinma River is a major tributary of the second Songhua River, located in the northeast black soil is the core area of the northeast old industrial base and the country's major grain base. In order to realize the social economy, the coordinated development of population and environment, this paper based on the extensive literature, summarizes the domestic research methods of water resources carrying capacity, selection pressure state response (PSR) model based on water resources carrying capacity from the horse river basin. Firstly carried out evaluation of the present situation of water resources in the basin; then according to the watershed in 2014 the town of social economic conditions, using the quota method to forecast the trend of consumption in 2020 and 2030; and finally establish evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity of Yinma River basin the model of water resources in the Visual Basic6.0 platform for carrying capacity. Based on the social economy, the coordinated development of ecological environment and water environment principle, design To calculate the carrying capacity of water resources, combined with the trend of quota method for water demand, determine the Yinma River Basin in 2030 2020, the carrying capacity of water resources. The main research results are: 1. the status quo of Yinmahe drainage basin water resources is sufficient for.2014 years the total amount is 5.98 * 108m3, the total amount of water supply is 9.73 * 108m3. The total amount of water resources is 13.43 * 108m3, water resources development and utilization rate of 72.49%. after calculation, water resources Yinmahe drainage basin can use a total of 6.89 * 108m3.2. to predict the content of 2020 and 2030 Yinma River Basin by using the quota trend method, it can get the total water demand is increasing year by year. The total demand forecast in 2020 water is 6.52 * 108m32030 total annual water demand is 7.18 * 108m3.3. PSR model combined with the calculation results of water resources, water supply based on water resources carrying capacity analysis of the total water supply.2020 Yinmahe basin amount to 7.53 * 108m3 And the total water demand is 6.57 * 108m3, 0.96 * 108m3.2020 years more than water Yinma River Basin water resources is more adequate. Can carry the 2020 socio-economic development demand for water. Then carrying population of 1 million 860 thousand people, per capita consumption of 353m3, GDP can carry about 125 billion 330 million yuan, the total water bearing area ecological environment 2123km2.2030 Yinmahe river basin is 7.65 * 108m3, the total water demand is 7.70 * 108m3, water quantity is 0.053 * 108m3, compared with the results of PSR models of overloading population of 12970 people, overload GDP was 1 billion 297 million yuan, an area of 18.9 hectares. The ecological overload for water resources in 2030 water supply and demand imbalance, should adjust the industrial structure give priority to the development, low water consumption, high production enterprises, strict control of high water consumption, low value-added enterprises launched, appropriate to reduce water consumption yuan industrial added value, and vigorously promote water-saving technology, improve the carrying capacity of water resources.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)春工程學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4

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