本文關(guān)鍵詞：臺(tái)灣島附近臺(tái)風(fēng)異常路徑特征及其預(yù)報(bào)不確定性的初步研究　出處：《中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 臺(tái)風(fēng) 異常路徑 臺(tái)風(fēng)Morakot(0908) 次生低壓 預(yù)報(bào)不確定性

【摘要】：目前熱帶氣旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)路徑預(yù)報(bào)能力已有很大提高,但異常路徑的預(yù)報(bào)能力仍然比較薄弱。我國(guó)臺(tái)灣島附近區(qū)域地形復(fù)雜,TC異常路徑頻發(fā)。論文首先對(duì)1949-2014年臺(tái)灣島附近區(qū)域(116°E-126°E,19°N-29°N)內(nèi)530個(gè)TC的運(yùn)動(dòng)特征進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。其次采用個(gè)例診斷和集合天氣學(xué)分析方法,討論臺(tái)風(fēng)Morakot(0908)異常路徑成因及其預(yù)報(bào)不確定性。最后通過(guò)數(shù)值敏感性試驗(yàn),探討臺(tái)灣島地形對(duì)Morakot異常路徑的影響。統(tǒng)計(jì)表明,臺(tái)灣島附近區(qū)域TC右折頻次比左折多約10%,其中島嶼西北部至臺(tái)灣海峽北部右折頻次明顯多于左折,而臺(tái)灣島東岸沿海則是左折多于右折。TC路徑大角度的異常偏折容易出現(xiàn)在臺(tái)灣島東北側(cè)、西南側(cè)及臺(tái)灣海峽南端。異常加速(減速)主要出現(xiàn)在臺(tái)灣島東岸(海峽南部)。約33%TC經(jīng)過(guò)臺(tái)灣島區(qū)域時(shí)伴隨次生低壓(secondary low pressure center,SC)。SC可出現(xiàn)在中央山脈東西兩側(cè),最容易出現(xiàn)在臺(tái)灣島西北方。TC中心與其次生低壓一般各分布于中央山脈異側(cè),少數(shù)在同側(cè)。SC代替原臺(tái)風(fēng)中心形成不連續(xù)路徑的TC個(gè)例占總登陸臺(tái)灣島TC總數(shù)的36%。利用中尺度數(shù)值模式WRF模擬結(jié)果,診斷分析臺(tái)風(fēng)Morakot(0908)緩慢過(guò)島的不連續(xù)路徑發(fā)生原因,發(fā)現(xiàn)除西太平洋副熱帶高壓(副高)影響及雙臺(tái)風(fēng)效應(yīng)外,過(guò)島臺(tái)風(fēng)的結(jié)構(gòu)變化是一個(gè)重要原因。Morakot異常路徑與臺(tái)灣地形附近臺(tái)風(fēng)環(huán)流內(nèi)SC的發(fā)生發(fā)展有關(guān)。SC替代臺(tái)風(fēng)中心形成不連續(xù)路徑的過(guò)程,是臺(tái)風(fēng)低層環(huán)流從分裂到重組、臺(tái)風(fēng)正渦度柱從垂直到傾斜再恢復(fù)垂直的緩慢變化過(guò)程,增加了Morakot在臺(tái)灣島附近的活動(dòng)時(shí)間。對(duì)ECMWF發(fā)布的TC路徑集合預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)對(duì)Morakot過(guò)臺(tái)灣島緩慢西行的不連續(xù)路徑,不論早期遠(yuǎn)離臺(tái)灣島還是臨近登陸前的預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果都具有較大的不確定性。利用集合天氣學(xué)分析方法分析集合成員預(yù)報(bào)成功和失敗的原因,結(jié)果表明,早期TC路徑預(yù)報(bào)誤差主要來(lái)自于模式對(duì)副高、西南氣流、雙臺(tái)風(fēng)等大尺度環(huán)境場(chǎng)描述的差異,導(dǎo)致TC西行過(guò)島和登島前北折的路徑預(yù)報(bào)分歧。而后期臨近登陸時(shí)環(huán)境引導(dǎo)氣流較弱,地形與TC環(huán)流相互作用產(chǎn)生的SC活動(dòng)是路徑預(yù)報(bào)成功與否的關(guān)鍵因子。成功預(yù)報(bào)集合成員SC發(fā)展更強(qiáng),與原臺(tái)風(fēng)中心距離更近,最終代替TC中心,導(dǎo)致西行過(guò)島的不連續(xù)路徑。而失敗預(yù)報(bào)集合成員的SC發(fā)展較弱,且距臺(tái)風(fēng)中心較遠(yuǎn),未能代替TC中心產(chǎn)生西行過(guò)島的不連續(xù)路徑,而是在臺(tái)灣島東部海域轉(zhuǎn)向北上。進(jìn)一步利用中尺度數(shù)值模式WRF開(kāi)展不同高度臺(tái)灣島地形對(duì)Morakot異常路徑影響的敏感性試驗(yàn)。發(fā)現(xiàn)地形作用使臺(tái)風(fēng)移向容易偏折,移速波動(dòng)大,過(guò)島時(shí)間長(zhǎng),并可激發(fā)次生低壓,導(dǎo)致臺(tái)風(fēng)不連續(xù)路徑。當(dāng)去除臺(tái)灣地形,臺(tái)風(fēng)路徑擺動(dòng)小,過(guò)島時(shí)間短,無(wú)次生生低壓和不連續(xù)路徑發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:The tropical cyclone (Tropical Cyclone, TC) path prediction capability has been greatly improved, but the prediction ability of abnormal path is still relatively weak. Near Taiwan island terrain in China is complex, frequent TC abnormal path. Firstly, 1949-2014 near the island of Taiwan region (116 degrees E-126 degrees E, 19 degrees N-29 degrees N) motion feature in 530 TC were analyzed. The diagnosis of case and collection of synoptic analysis methods, the discussion of typhoon Morakot (0908) abnormal path causes and forecast uncertainty. Finally through numerical sensitivity experiments on Taiwan island shape effect on Morakot abnormal path. The statistics show that the Taiwan island region near the TC right fold frequency ratio left about 10% fold, the northwest of the island to the northern Taiwan Strait right fold frequency significantly more than the left fold, and the east coast of Taiwan coastal is left off more than the right folding.TC path of large angle deflection is prone to abnormal In the island of Taiwan northeast, southwest and south of the Taiwan Strait. The abnormal acceleration (deceleration) occurred mainly in the east coast of Taiwan (the South). About 33%TC through the Taiwan island area with secondary low (secondary low pressure center, SC.SC) can be seen in the two side of the central mountain range, most likely to occur in the island of Taiwan North West.TC center and the secondary low general distribution in the central mountain range from side to side, a few on the same side of.SC instead of the original typhoon center form a case of the TC continuous path of the total land in Taiwan island TC 36%. of the total number of the mesoscale numerical model WRF simulation results, the diagnostic analysis of typhoon Morakot (0908) is not a continuous path slow island the causes, in addition to the Western Pacific subtropical high (SH) and double typhoon effect, the structure change of typhoon is one of the important reasons of.Morakot abnormal path and Taiwan terrain near the typhoon circulation in SC Discontinuous path formation related to the occurrence and development of.SC instead of the center of typhoon, the typhoon low level circulation from fragmentation to restructuring, the typhoon positive vorticity column from vertical to tilt to the slow recovery of the change process of vertical, increased Morakot in Taiwan near the island of time. The TC path ECMWF release of the ensemble results are analyzed. Find a continuous path on Morakot island of Taiwan slowly westward, it has greater uncertainty from early or near the island of Taiwan before landing the prediction results. Using synoptic analysis set set of reasons, members of forecasting the success and failure of the results show that early TC path prediction error mainly comes from the mode of the subtropical high. The southwest airflow, two typhoons and other large scale environmental field description of differences, resulting in TC over the island and landed westbound route forecast North off the island. The differences and close to the late landing environment guide The airflow is weak, terrain and TC circulation caused by the interaction of SC activity is the key factor for the success of the path prediction. The successful prediction of the ensemble members SC to develop stronger, and the distance from the original typhoon center near, to eventually replace the TC center, leading to the continuous path passing through the island. Westbound failed ensemble members of the SC development is weak, and far away from the typhoon center, not a continuous path to replace the TC generated in the center of westbound passing through the island, but in the eastern waters of Taiwan island to the north. Further sensitivity test using the mesoscale numerical model WRF to carry out the effect of different height of the Taiwan topography of Morakot abnormal path. The effect of terrain to the typhoon moving to find easy deflection, speed fluctuation the big island, too long time, and can stimulate secondary low, resulting in a typhoon discontinuous path. When removing the terrain of Taiwan, the typhoon path swing small island too short time, no secondary depression and discontinuous path development Students.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)氣象科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P444;P457.8

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