本文選題：自然保護(hù)區(qū) + 沖擊模型　； 參考：《中國人口·資源與環(huán)境》2017年05期

【摘要】：自然保護(hù)區(qū)是受特殊保護(hù)和管理的一類特殊的可靠性系統(tǒng)。本文從可靠性視角出發(fā),利用沖擊模型方法和MATLAB隨機模擬技術(shù),以貴州草海為例分析自然保護(hù)區(qū)系統(tǒng)的壽命行為和失效規(guī)律。分析結(jié)果表明:(1)20世紀(jì)50年代以前,草海系統(tǒng)受到的人為干預(yù)相對較少,可靠性長期保持相對穩(wěn)定。以人類活動為主的沖擊影響始于20世紀(jì)50年代末,對保護(hù)區(qū)生態(tài)功能產(chǎn)生了強烈干預(yù)。(2)在1958—1980期間,政府出于防澇減災(zāi)考慮的引流排水行為扮演了系統(tǒng)的主要沖擊,對其可靠性產(chǎn)生了毀滅性影響。(3)在1980年之后的30多年里,周邊農(nóng)民出于造田增地需求的排水毀林自發(fā)性活動則形成草海保護(hù)區(qū)的新一輪沖擊,并持續(xù)影響著系統(tǒng)的生態(tài)功能。(4)目前草海在調(diào)節(jié)氣候、緩解災(zāi)害、保持生物多樣性方面的生態(tài)功能已嚴(yán)重弱化。如果最近幾十年的人為沖擊模式不能得到有效緩解,保護(hù)區(qū)系統(tǒng)極有可能在近期內(nèi)再次發(fā)生功能性崩潰。
[Abstract]:Nature reserve is a kind of special reliability system under special protection and management. In this paper, from the perspective of reliability, the impact model method and MATLAB random simulation technique are used to analyze the life behavior and failure law of the system in Caohai, Guizhou Province. The results show that: (1) before the 1950s, the Caohai system received relatively little human intervention, and its reliability remained relatively stable for a long time. The impact mainly on human activities began in the late 1950s and had a strong impact on the ecological function of the protected areas. (2) during 1958-1980, the drainage and drainage behavior of the government for waterlogging prevention and disaster mitigation played a major role in the system. (3) in the more than 30 years after 1980, the spontaneous activities of drainage and deforestation by the surrounding farmers for land reclamation and land enhancement formed a new round of impact on the Caohai Reserve. At present, the ecological function of Caohai has been seriously weakened in regulating climate, mitigating disasters and maintaining biodiversity. If the man-made impact models of recent decades are not effectively mitigated, it is highly likely that the protected area system will have another functional collapse in the near future.
【作者單位】： 北京信息科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;蘭州大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;中國農(nóng)業(yè)銀行股份有限公司貴陽小河支行;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“基于沖擊模型方法的保險風(fēng)險系統(tǒng)可靠性研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:71171103) 教育部哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項目“大數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動的城市公共安全風(fēng)險研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:16JZD023) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金項目“車險欺詐的識別、檢查與控制策略研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:16LZUJBWZD002);中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費專項資金項目“保險欺詐的識別與應(yīng)對研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:15LZUJB WYJ036)
【分類號】：X36
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本文編號：2105214