發(fā)布時間：2018-03-07 22:36

  本文選題：化學需氧量　切入點：空間探索性數(shù)據(jù)分析　出處：《廣西師范大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化進程的快速發(fā)展,工業(yè)和生活垃圾的大量產(chǎn)生,農(nóng)業(yè)化肥的泛濫使用,生活污水的大量排放,使水污染面臨的壓力越來越大。水資源是居民日常生活中進行各項社會活動必不可少的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),為了保障居民日常生活活動的正常開展,我們必須要做好水資源的保護工作。不僅僅要把控廢水總量的排放,更要嚴格把控廢水中各項污染指標的排放標準,這對水污染的治理工作的開展極其重要。水質(zhì)的富營養(yǎng)化,微生物的大量繁殖等還原性物質(zhì)的含量對水資源質(zhì)量的影響至關(guān)重要,而化學需氧量排放量是衡量廢水中還原性物質(zhì)含量的綜合指標。除了控制廢水中化學需氧量排放量總量之外,還應該嚴格把控化學需氧量排放強度——單位GDP產(chǎn)生的化學需氧量。本文首先運用探索性空間數(shù)據(jù)分析方法來分析我國化學需氧量排放強度的空間相關(guān)性,結(jié)果表明衡量空間相關(guān)強度大小的指標Moran指數(shù)I均大于0,并且隨著時間的發(fā)展Moran指數(shù)I的值越來越大,都能夠在5%顯著性水平下通過假設(shè)性檢驗,這充分表明我國化學需氧量排放強度具有明顯的空間效應,運用空間計量模型來分析我國化學需氧量排放強度是合適的;其次結(jié)合經(jīng)濟學中的趨同模型,建立空間滯后β收斂模型和空間誤差β收斂模型,由于2010年前后化學需氧排放總量的統(tǒng)計口徑不一致,需要分時段建立模型,運用最大釋然估計法來估計各項參數(shù),觀察2004-2010年各項參數(shù)的估計值,發(fā)現(xiàn)β小于0,但是不顯著,即沒有充分的證據(jù)表明該時間段化學需氧量排放強度是收斂的,觀察2011-2015年模型的參數(shù)估計值,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩種模型的參數(shù)估計值β0,由于SEM模型優(yōu)于SLM模型,使用空間誤差收斂模型(條件趨同模型)來分析我國化學需氧量排放強度會更適合,這也說明我國化學需氧量排放強度在該時間段呈發(fā)散的趨勢,與我國各個省域地域大、工業(yè)發(fā)展水平不同、科技創(chuàng)新能力異同等特點相符合;最后通過該模型并結(jié)合實際情況為環(huán)保部門提供區(qū)域性治理、增加環(huán)境投資、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、加強科技創(chuàng)新能力、淘汰高耗能低產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出設(shè)備大力發(fā)展循環(huán)經(jīng)濟等降低污染物排放強度的建議,為早日實現(xiàn)碧水藍天、健康良好的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展環(huán)境而努力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China, the production of industrial and domestic waste, the widespread use of agricultural fertilizers, and the discharge of domestic sewage, Water resources are the essential material basis for carrying out all kinds of social activities in the daily life of residents, in order to ensure the normal development of daily activities of residents, We must do a good job in the protection of water resources. We must not only control the discharge of the total amount of wastewater, but also strictly control the discharge standards of various pollution indicators in the wastewater, which is extremely important to the development of water pollution control work, the eutrophication of water quality, The content of reducing substances, such as the proliferation of microbes, is crucial to the quality of water resources. The amount of COD is a comprehensive index to measure the content of reducing substances in wastewater. In addition to controlling the total amount of COD in wastewater, The emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand (GDP) should be controlled strictly. Firstly, the spatial correlation of emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand (GDP) in China is analyzed by using exploratory spatial data analysis method. The results showed that the Moran index I, the index of spatial correlation intensity, was greater than 0, and with the development of time, the value of Moran index I was larger and larger, and could pass the hypothesis test at the level of 5% significance. This fully indicates that the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China has obvious spatial effect. It is appropriate to use the spatial econometric model to analyze the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China. Secondly, combined with the convergence model in economics, it is appropriate to analyze the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China. To establish the spatial lag 尾 convergence model and the spatial error 尾 convergence model, due to the inconsistent statistical caliber of the total amount of chemical aerobic emissions before and after 2010, it is necessary to establish the model in different periods and to estimate the parameters by using the maximum release estimation method. Observing the estimates of the parameters for the period 2004-2010, and finding that 尾 is less than 0, but not significant, that is, there is no sufficient evidence that the intensity of chemical oxygen demand emissions is convergent during this period, and the estimated values of the parameters of the 2011-2015 model are observed, Because the SEM model is superior to the SLM model, it is more suitable to use the spatial error convergence model (conditional convergence model) to analyze the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand (COD) in China. This also shows that the emission intensity of chemical oxygen demand in China is divergent in this time period, which is consistent with the characteristics of different provinces in China, different levels of industrial development, similarities and differences in the ability of scientific and technological innovation, etc. Finally, through the model and combined with the actual situation for environmental protection departments to provide regional governance, increase environmental investment, optimize industrial structure, strengthen the ability of scientific and technological innovation, In order to realize blue water and blue sky and a healthy and sustainable development environment as soon as possible, some suggestions for reducing pollutant emission intensity, such as developing recycling economy and so on, should be eliminated.
【學位授予單位】：廣西師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X52

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