發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-06 19:41

【摘要】：近年來我國(guó)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)界對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)研究的興趣迅速增長(zhǎng)。國(guó)際關(guān)系預(yù)測(cè)有其較高的學(xué)術(shù)創(chuàng)新潛力和政策應(yīng)用價(jià)值,應(yīng)成為我國(guó)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)科的一個(gè)重要的研究方向�？茖W(xué)預(yù)測(cè)基于對(duì)現(xiàn)有信息的分析,對(duì)未來尚未發(fā)生的事件進(jìn)行判斷,是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大的研究工作,對(duì)于包括國(guó)際關(guān)系在內(nèi)的社會(huì)科學(xué)來說更是如此。本文在社會(huì)科學(xué)的普遍框架下,探討了國(guó)際關(guān)系定量預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來源及其處理方法,并對(duì)"高烈度政治動(dòng)蕩"預(yù)測(cè)研究項(xiàng)目(Political Instability Task Force)進(jìn)行評(píng)述和再分析,修正原研究在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制和預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估方面的缺陷和不足,運(yùn)用新方法進(jìn)行多模型平均預(yù)測(cè)來降低預(yù)測(cè)中最為棘手的模型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過理論探討和實(shí)例分析,本文旨在強(qiáng)調(diào)國(guó)際關(guān)系定量預(yù)測(cè)研究對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行過程控制和結(jié)果評(píng)估的重要性,并以此管窺現(xiàn)有大量用于處理和評(píng)估預(yù)測(cè)不確定性的定量工具,包括進(jìn)行變量選擇、模型比較、模型平均的多種方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in interest in forecasting research in China's international relations community. The prediction of international relations has higher academic innovation potential and policy application value, which should be an important research direction of international relations in China. Based on the analysis of the existing information, scientific prediction is a risky research work, especially for the social sciences, including international relations, to judge the events that have not yet occurred in the future. Under the general framework of social science, this paper probes into the risk sources of quantitative prediction of international relations and its treatment methods, and reviews and reanalyses the prediction project (Political Instability Task Force) of "High intensity political turbulence". In order to reduce the most difficult model risk, the new method is used to reduce the most difficult model risk by correcting the defects and shortcomings of the original study in risk control and prediction evaluation. Through theoretical discussion and case analysis, this paper aims to emphasize the importance of quantitative forecasting research in international relations to process control and result assessment of forecasting risks, and to explore a large number of quantitative tools for dealing with and evaluating forecasting uncertainties. It includes variable selection, model comparison and model averaging.
【作者單位】： 清華大學(xué)國(guó)際關(guān)系學(xué)系;
【基金】：教育部國(guó)別與區(qū)域研究指向性課題“國(guó)際安全的大數(shù)據(jù)研究”的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：D81

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本文編號(hào)：2315272