哥倫比亞與中國(guó)的外交關(guān)系(1980-2010):中國(guó)和拉美的非對(duì)稱關(guān)系
本文選題:不對(duì)稱 + 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán); 參考:《吉林大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文
【摘要】: 作為對(duì)中國(guó)和哥倫比亞非對(duì)稱關(guān)系的陳述,我認(rèn)為由于在生產(chǎn)能力等方面有差距,中哥兩國(guó)的貿(mào)易關(guān)系是不對(duì)稱的,這體現(xiàn)在了兩國(guó)貿(mào)易差額的演進(jìn)過程中:自1990年代以來,哥倫比亞從中國(guó)進(jìn)口的產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)超過了哥倫比亞對(duì)中國(guó)的出口量。兩國(guó)政府積極發(fā)展雙邊貿(mào)易,相互出口上都有了巨大的增長(zhǎng),但目前哥倫比亞在與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易中還是存在著巨大的赤字。由于兩國(guó)在發(fā)展水平上存有差距,這種狀況在近期還難以改變,中國(guó)在貿(mào)易中處于強(qiáng)勢(shì)地位,哥倫比亞相對(duì)處于弱勢(shì)。不僅如此,哥倫比亞至今沒有一種能在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)大量銷售的產(chǎn)品,而許多其他拉美國(guó)家具備了這種能力并扭轉(zhuǎn)了與中國(guó)貿(mào)易過程中的不對(duì)稱局面。 在此條件下,我希望解決的主要問題就是哥倫比亞在生產(chǎn)能力與中國(guó)相比十分有限的情況下可以在多大程度上扭轉(zhuǎn)與對(duì)華貿(mào)易的這種逆差局面。我最關(guān)注的乃是哥倫比亞增加對(duì)中國(guó)出口的可能性大小,因此我安排了以下假設(shè):為減少與中國(guó)貿(mào)易中的赤字,哥倫比亞在對(duì)華的商品銷售中應(yīng)關(guān)注于那些戰(zhàn)略性內(nèi)陸省份:這些省份與哥倫比亞的生產(chǎn)能力差距較沿海發(fā)達(dá)省份來說相對(duì)較小,并且可以作為哥倫比亞商品的潛在市場(chǎng)。事實(shí)上,本文的主要目的就是檢驗(yàn)這些假設(shè)是否可行。另外,我們認(rèn)為由于近來特別是這十年來中國(guó)在相關(guān)區(qū)域的“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)”的增強(qiáng),已經(jīng)存在有促進(jìn)雙方合作和進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的相關(guān)重要機(jī)制。 第一章的內(nèi)容包含了理論框架的構(gòu)建和對(duì)1949—2010年間中國(guó)—拉美關(guān)系的介紹。對(duì)中哥貿(mào)易關(guān)系發(fā)展史的解讀建立在“不對(duì)稱”理論和上文所提到的布蘭德利·沃麥克教授所提出的“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)”理論。我將解釋兩國(guó)關(guān)系中存在的不對(duì)等差距以及它們產(chǎn)生的原因。接下來,我會(huì)仔細(xì)的分析中國(guó)在拉丁美洲的“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)”的建立以及與相關(guān)國(guó)家的交涉,例如巴西、智利、阿根廷、墨西哥和委內(nèi)瑞拉等,它們都可以被視為中國(guó)在該地區(qū)的戰(zhàn)略伙伴。 在第二章中,為了更好的理解中國(guó)在哥倫比亞的相關(guān)活動(dòng),我分析了1980—2010年間雙方貿(mào)易的發(fā)展情況。我描繪了歷史上雙方交易的主要貨物,試圖以此來尋找哥倫比亞在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上穩(wěn)定且具有潛力的暢銷產(chǎn)品。此外我還分析了雙方的貿(mào)易差額,勾勒出了我在前面理論框架中所提出的兩國(guó)在經(jīng)濟(jì)和生產(chǎn)能力方面的差異。接著,我將注意力放在中國(guó)對(duì)哥倫比亞的直接投資上,并試著去尋找這些投資的集中領(lǐng)域在哪里以及中國(guó)的外商直接投資在哥倫比亞所占的份額。 第三章是本文的中心章節(jié),對(duì)中哥貿(mào)易關(guān)系進(jìn)行細(xì)致的分析。在章節(jié)3.1中,我將中哥兩國(guó)自1980年以來外交關(guān)系的發(fā)展進(jìn)行了介紹。在章節(jié)3.2中,通過調(diào)查兩國(guó)在進(jìn)出口領(lǐng)域所各占的份額、兩國(guó)公司在對(duì)方國(guó)內(nèi)的發(fā)展情況以及慈善捐助乃至教育交流計(jì)劃等方面的情況,我希望判斷出雙方對(duì)于彼此的重視程度。作為哥倫比亞政府的一個(gè)杰出成就和中國(guó)政府自信態(tài)勢(shì)的反映,2009年在波哥大召開的第二屆中國(guó)—拉美經(jīng)貿(mào)年會(huì)促進(jìn)了哥倫比亞境內(nèi)中國(guó)跨國(guó)公司的發(fā)展。章節(jié)3.3主要介紹了影響兩國(guó)貿(mào)易的各種限制和阻礙,這其中主要的就是由于中哥兩國(guó)貿(mào)易的不對(duì)稱性所催生的哥倫比亞政府對(duì)華商品的反傾銷法案。為了解釋兩國(guó)在雙邊框架之上的貿(mào)易關(guān)系,我將中國(guó)與美國(guó)、西班牙和日本進(jìn)行了對(duì)比,這其中考慮的因素包括直接投資、貿(mào)易差額和最主要的進(jìn)口與出口商品。我選擇美國(guó)因?yàn)樗歉鐐惐葋喿钪饕馁Q(mào)易伙伴,在直接投資方面領(lǐng)域也是占據(jù)首要位置;在2008年世界金融危機(jī)之前,西班牙對(duì)哥倫比亞的外國(guó)直接投資量居于第二,而且由于它是哥倫比亞的前殖民宗主國(guó),西班牙同樣是哥倫比亞的重要貿(mào)易伙伴;在最后一個(gè)案例中,我選擇了日本,因?yàn)樗莵喼拮畲蟮慕?jīng)濟(jì)體,是中國(guó)在亞歐大陸上最最要的貿(mào)易伙伴,而且日本在世界上也是僅次于美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國(guó)。我所進(jìn)行的這些對(duì)比有兩個(gè)目標(biāo):一、研究哥倫比亞與其它這些國(guó)家的貿(mào)易關(guān)系是否也是非對(duì)稱性的;二、找出哥倫比亞與中國(guó)的貿(mào)易同它與世界其它主要國(guó)家的貿(mào)易之間的相同點(diǎn)和不同之處。 加入亞太經(jīng)濟(jì)合作論壇有助于鞏固中哥關(guān)系,而且由于同作為多邊經(jīng)濟(jì)組織的一員,兩國(guó)的不對(duì)稱性也許會(huì)相對(duì)減少,因此第四章將分析中國(guó)在此問題上的立場(chǎng)。基于對(duì)兩國(guó)貿(mào)易關(guān)系的分析,我認(rèn)為兩國(guó)有簽署自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的可能。我將進(jìn)而分析該假設(shè)的可行性,分析哥倫比亞與中國(guó)各省的經(jīng)濟(jì)走向,包括地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總產(chǎn)值、進(jìn)出口量、主要的進(jìn)出口貨物以及對(duì)外直接投資等等。通過這種方法,我希望調(diào)查兩國(guó)生產(chǎn)能力的不對(duì)稱性在地區(qū)層面上是否也會(huì)像在全國(guó)層面上那樣堅(jiān)不可摧,并進(jìn)而判斷哥倫比亞各省是否有機(jī)會(huì)戰(zhàn)勝這種不對(duì)稱性。
[Abstract]:As a statement of the asymmetrical relationship between China and Columbia, I think the trade relations between the two countries are asymmetrical because of the gap in production capacity. This is reflected in the evolution of the trade gap between the two countries: since 1990s, Columbia's imports from China have exceeded Columbia's export to China. There is a huge growth in the bilateral trade between the two governments, but there is still a huge deficit in Columbia's trade with China. Because there is a gap in the level of development between the two countries, this situation is still difficult to change in the near future. China is in a strong position in trade, and Columbia is in a relative position. Not only that, but so far, Columbia has not been able to sell a lot of products in the Chinese market, but many other Latin American countries have the ability to reverse the asymmetry in the process of trade with China.
Under this condition, the main problem I want to solve is how far Columbia can reverse the balance of trade with China in the very limited case of production capacity compared with China. What I am most concerned about is the possibility of increasing the possibility of Columbia's export to China, so I have arranged the following hypothesis: to reduce With China's trade deficit, Columbia's commodity sales to China should be focused on strategic inland provinces: the gap between the provinces and Columbia is relatively smaller than the developed coastal provinces and can be a potential market for Columbia goods. In fact, the main purpose of this article is to test these counterfeits. In addition, we believe that there have been important mechanisms for promoting cooperation and entering the Chinese market because of the recent increase in the "leadership" in the relevant regions, especially in the past ten years.
The first chapter contains the construction of the theoretical framework and the introduction of China Latin American relations between 1949 and 2010. The interpretation of the history of Sino brother's trade relations is based on the "asymmetry" theory and the "leadership" theory proposed by Professor Bradley Womack mentioned above. I will explain the misalignment of the relations in the two countries. Next, I will carefully analyze the establishment of China's "leadership" in Latin America and the negotiations with other countries, such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela, all of which can be regarded as China's strategic partners in the region.
In the second chapter, in order to better understand the related activities of China in Columbia, I analyzed the development of bilateral trade between the two countries during the period of 1980 to 2010. I described the major goods traded in the history between the two sides, trying to find the stable and latent best-selling products of Columbia in the Chinese market. In addition, I also analyzed the two sides. The trade gap outlines the economic and productive differences that I put forward in the previous theoretical framework. Then, I focus on China's direct investment in Columbia, and try to find out where the focus of these investments is and the share of China's foreign direct investment in Columbia.
In the third chapter, the central section of this article is a detailed analysis of the trade relations between China and the two countries. In Chapter 3.1, I introduced the development of the diplomatic relations between China and the two countries since 1980. In section 3., we investigated the share of the two countries in the import and export areas, the development of the two countries in the other country and the charity contribution. In the context of the educational exchange program, I hope to judge the importance of both sides to each other. As an outstanding achievement of the Columbia government and the reflection of the confidence of the Chinese government, the second China Latin American economic and trade annual meeting held in Bogota in 2009 has promoted the development of Chinese Transnational Corporations in Columbia. 3.3 mainly introduces the various restrictions and obstacles that affect the trade between the two countries. This is mainly due to the antidumping act of the government of the Columbia government on China's commodities caused by the asymmetry of the trade between the two countries. In order to explain the bilateral trade relations on the bilateral framework, I compare China with the United States, Spain and Japan. The factors that are considered include direct investment, trade balance and the most important import and export commodities. I choose the United States, because it is the most important trading partner in Columbia, and is the first place in direct investment; before the 2008 world financial crisis, the foreign direct investment in Columbia was in the first place. Two, and because it is a former colonial master of Columbia, Spain is also an important trading partner in Columbia; in the last case, I chose Japan, because it is the largest economy in Asia, the most important trading partner in Asia and Europe, and Japan is also the second only to the United States in the world. These comparisons have two objectives: one is to study whether the trade relations between Columbia and other countries are asymmetrical; two, find out the similarities and differences between Columbia's trade with China and its trade with other major countries in the world.
Joining the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will help to consolidate the relationship between the two countries, and the fourth chapter will analyze China's position on this issue because of the same as a member of the multilateral economic organization, so the position of China on this issue will be analyzed. Based on the analysis of the trade relations between the two countries, I think the two countries have the possibility of signing a free trade agreement. Then it will analyze the feasibility of the hypothesis and analyze the economic trend of Columbia and China's provinces, including the total output value, import and export volume, main import and export goods and foreign direct investment, etc. through this method, I hope to investigate whether the misalignment of the productive capacity of the two countries will be at the national level as well. As indestructible as it is, and then to judge whether Columbia's provinces have the chance to overcome this asymmetry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2010
【分類號(hào)】:D829.77
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