本文選題：對外直接投資 + 政治風險��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從我國提出“走出去”戰(zhàn)略之后,我國企業(yè)不斷以對外直接投資形式走向國際舞臺,并且不斷增長。不過由于我國企業(yè)對外直接投資起步較晚,不少企業(yè)遭遇各種外部風險,導致其損失慘重,其中尤以東道國政治風險的破壞力和影響力最為強大。因此對政治風險的研究與防范具有重要意義。而投資區(qū)位選擇是企業(yè)對外直接投資的第一步,也是非常關(guān)鍵的決策,正確的投資區(qū)位選擇能有效降低跨國投資的風險。那么,東道國政治風險對我國對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇究竟產(chǎn)生何種影響,目前國內(nèi)就這個問題的研究有待進一步完善和補充�，F(xiàn)有的國內(nèi)外文獻是后續(xù)研究的支撐�？v觀現(xiàn)有文獻資料發(fā)現(xiàn),大部分研究文獻都指出,政治風險不單是由政治性因素引起的,其他諸如社會文化等因素同樣會引起政治風險的發(fā)生,很多學者從政治、經(jīng)濟、社會文化三個維度讀政治風險進行分類類。關(guān)于政治風險的研究以定性的宏觀分析居多,微觀的實證研究相對較少,而在已有的實證研究中得出的結(jié)果也不一致。而且國外文獻大多是基于發(fā)達國家跨國企業(yè)的角度進行的研究,對我國企業(yè)缺乏現(xiàn)實指導意義。本文分析了我國對外直接投資的現(xiàn)狀特點及其區(qū)位分布,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國對外直接投資區(qū)位存在一個特殊性,即高度集中于發(fā)展中國家。在此特殊國情之下,選取了政治風險的6個構(gòu)成因素,分別是軍事干預(yù)政治、民主問責、法律秩序、腐敗、政府穩(wěn)定性以及政府管理質(zhì)量,將其作為政治風險的替代變量。在已有的研究基礎(chǔ)之上提出本文的研究假設(shè),依據(jù)已有的引力模型修正本文的計量模型,對選取的51個國家2007-2013年的面板數(shù)據(jù)使用Eviews9進行實證分析,檢驗假設(shè)。此外,將對華關(guān)系作為調(diào)節(jié)變量,利用SPSS20進行了層次回歸分析,探究其是否對政治風險與我國對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇間的關(guān)系產(chǎn)生調(diào)節(jié)效應(yīng)。實證結(jié)果顯示,法制、腐敗、政府穩(wěn)定性和政府管理質(zhì)量通過了顯著性檢驗。東道國法制程度與我國對外直接投資呈負相關(guān),說明我國對外直接投資偏好于法制程度低的國家(地區(qū))。我國目前處于高速發(fā)展階段,各方面條律都有待完善,企業(yè)長期處于這種經(jīng)營環(huán)境之中,更偏向于法制差異較小的國家(地區(qū))實現(xiàn)跨國經(jīng)營。東道國腐敗程度與我國對外直接投資呈負相關(guān),即我國對外直接投資偏好于腐敗程度較低的國家(地區(qū))。東道國腐敗導致經(jīng)營環(huán)境發(fā)生扭曲,導致交易成本增加,投資者對其進行投資的可能性越小。東道國政府穩(wěn)定性與我國對外直接投資呈負相關(guān),說明我國對外直接投資偏好于政府穩(wěn)定性差的國家(地區(qū))。東道國的政府穩(wěn)定性越差,就越希望通過吸引外國直接投資的方式從稅收等角度增加財政收入,以此來鞏固其政府穩(wěn)定性。因此,東道國會出臺一些吸引外資的政策,而我國企業(yè)也正是基于那些優(yōu)惠政策選擇對其進行投資。政府管理質(zhì)量與我國對外直接投資呈正相關(guān),說明我國對外直接投資偏好于政治管理質(zhì)量高的國家(地區(qū))。良好的政府管理質(zhì)量可以在一定程度上保證我國企業(yè)在東道國擁有穩(wěn)定秩序的經(jīng)營環(huán)境,減少經(jīng)營阻力。對華關(guān)系與政治風險交互性的分析結(jié)果顯示,對華關(guān)系不僅是我國對外直接投資區(qū)位選擇的一個重要影響因素,同時它在一定程度上能削弱或替代政治風險給我國對外直接投資帶來的不利影響。對華關(guān)系與軍事干預(yù)政治、法律秩序、民主問責三者的交互項通過了顯著性檢驗。對華關(guān)系與軍事干預(yù)政治、法律秩序存在較強的替代關(guān)系,與民主問責存在較強的互補關(guān)系。最后根據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果,分別從政府政策和企業(yè)管理兩個層面對我國企業(yè)政治風險管理提出幾點對策:政府方面應(yīng)該擴大雙邊投資協(xié)定的簽訂范圍,建立良好的對華關(guān)系,并且繼續(xù)推進我國法制程度的完善和優(yōu)化,創(chuàng)造良好的母國經(jīng)營環(huán)境,同時確定海外投資保險制度模式,加速建立中國海外投資保險法律的進程;企業(yè)應(yīng)該提高風險意識,培養(yǎng)風險管理企業(yè)文化,并且企業(yè)投資之前要進行風險評估,建立風險預(yù)警,還可以采取區(qū)位選擇策略和分散化投資策略來降低政治風險,減少企業(yè)損失。
[Abstract]:Since our country put forward the strategy of "going out", China's enterprises continue to go to the international stage with the form of direct foreign investment, but because of the late start of the foreign direct investment in our enterprises, many enterprises have encountered various external risks, resulting in heavy losses, especially the destructive force and influence of the political risk of the host country. Therefore, the research and prevention of political risk is of great significance. The location choice of investment is the first step of the enterprise's foreign direct investment, and it is also a very critical decision. The correct investment location selection can effectively reduce the risk of transnational investment. At present, the existing domestic and foreign literature is the support of the follow-up research. In the current literature, most of the research documents have pointed out that political risk is not only caused by political factors, but other factors such as social culture are also caused. The political risk is classified by many scholars from the three dimensions of political, economic and social culture. The research on political risk is mainly based on the qualitative macro analysis, and the micro empirical research is relatively small, and the results obtained in the existing empirical studies are not consistent. And most of the foreign literature is based on the developed countries. The research on the point of view of domestic multinational enterprises has no practical guiding significance for Chinese enterprises. This paper analyzes the current situation and location distribution of China's foreign direct investment and finds that the location of our foreign direct investment has a special nature, that is, it is highly concentrated in the developing countries. In this special situation, the 6 political risks are selected. The constituent factors are military intervention politics, democratic accountability, legal order, corruption, government stability and the quality of government management, taking it as a substitute for political risk. Based on the existing research, this paper puts forward the research hypothesis, according to the existing gravitational model, the measurement model of this article is revised, and the selected 51 countries are 2007-2013. The annual panel data use Eviews9 to carry out empirical analysis and test the hypothesis. In addition, the relationship between China and China is taken as an adjustment variable, and a hierarchical regression analysis is carried out using SPSS20 to explore whether it has a regulatory effect on the relationship between political risk and China's foreign direct investment location selection. The quality of government management has passed the significant test. The degree of the host country's legal system is negatively related to our foreign direct investment, indicating that our foreign direct investment is preferred in the country (region) with low degree of legal system. China is at a high speed development stage, and the laws of all aspects are still to be improved, and the enterprises are in this environment for a long time and are more biased towards the law. There is a negative correlation between the degree of corruption of the host country and the foreign direct investment in the host country. That is, our foreign direct investment favours the countries with low corruption. The corruption in the host country leads to the distortion of the operating environment, which leads to the increase of transaction costs and the more possibility of investment by investors. The stability of the host country is negatively related to our foreign direct investment, indicating that our foreign direct investment is preferred in the country (region) with poor government stability. The worse the stability of the host country's government, the more it is to increase the fiscal revenue from the perspective of taxation by attracting foreign direct investment, in order to consolidate its government stability. Therefore, the host country has introduced some policies to attract foreign investment, and the Chinese enterprises are also investing in the preferential policies. The quality of government management is positively related to our foreign direct investment, indicating that our foreign direct investment is preferred to the country (region) with high political management quality. Good government management quality can be found. To a certain extent, we ensure that Chinese enterprises have a stable operating environment in the host country and reduce their operational resistance. The analysis of the interaction between China and China shows that the relationship between China and China is not only an important factor in the location choice of China's foreign direct investment, but also to a certain extent, it can weaken or replace the political risk. The adverse effects on China's foreign direct investment. The interaction between the Chinese relations and military intervention politics, the legal order and the democratic accountability of the three parties passed the significant test. There is a strong substitution relationship between China relations and military intervention politics, the legal order, and the strong complementary relationship with the democratic accountability. Finally, the results are based on the empirical analysis, From the two layers of government policy and enterprise management, we put forward some countermeasures in the management of Chinese enterprises' political risk. The government should expand the scope of the bilateral investment agreements, establish a good relationship with China, and continue to promote the improvement and optimization of the degree of the legal system in China, create a good environment for the home country, and determine the overseas investment. The insurance system mode will accelerate the process of establishing China's overseas investment insurance law; enterprises should raise risk awareness and train risk management enterprise culture. Before enterprise investment, risk assessment should be carried out, risk early warning is set up, and location selection strategy and decentralization investment strategy can be adopted to reduce political risk and reduce enterprise loss.

【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D822.3;F125

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