發(fā)布時間：2018-03-07 00:15

  本文選題：結(jié)構(gòu)突變檢驗　切入點：引力模型　出處：《世界經(jīng)濟與政治》2017年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：進入21世紀(jì)以來,國際局勢正在發(fā)生深刻的變化,大國間地緣政治博弈和相互制衡使國際局勢的不穩(wěn)定、不確定因素明顯增加,區(qū)域性沖突與摩擦?xí)r有發(fā)生。在全球化趨勢下,國際政治沖突如何影響國際經(jīng)濟正成為一個熱點問題,受到廣泛關(guān)注,相關(guān)文獻不斷涌現(xiàn),但深入的實證分析并不多見。作者基于2000—2015年中日政治關(guān)系與經(jīng)貿(mào)往來的月度數(shù)據(jù),利用計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)中的結(jié)構(gòu)突變檢驗與國際貿(mào)易中的引力模型,對國際政治沖突的貿(mào)易破壞效應(yīng)和貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)進行了實證研究。實證結(jié)果表明:第一,中日政治沖突對中日貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生了破壞效應(yīng),沖突級別越高,破壞效應(yīng)越大,但這種破壞效應(yīng)具有明顯的滯后性。第二,中日政治關(guān)系緊張還導(dǎo)致中日雙邊貿(mào)易部分向第三方國家轉(zhuǎn)移,具有貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng),而且對中國的貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)要明顯大于對日本的貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)。該研究不僅揭示了長期以來"政冷經(jīng)熱"與"政冷經(jīng)冷"之爭的根源,而且可為中國如何應(yīng)對國際政治沖突提供現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, the international situation is undergoing profound changes. Geopolitical games and checks and balances among the major powers have made the international situation unstable, uncertainties have increased significantly, and regional conflicts and frictions have occurred from time to time. How the international political conflict affects the international economy is becoming a hot issue, which has received extensive attention, and related documents have been emerging, but in-depth empirical analysis is rare. The author based on the monthly data on Sino-Japanese political relations and economic and trade exchanges from 2000 to 2015. By using the structural catastrophe test in econometrics and the gravity model in international trade, this paper makes an empirical study on the trade destructive effect and trade transfer effect of international political conflict. The empirical results are as follows: first, The political conflict between China and Japan has a destructive effect on Sino-Japanese trade. The higher the level of conflict, the greater the destructive effect, but this destructive effect is obviously delayed. Second, The tense political relations between China and Japan have also led to the transfer of the part of bilateral trade between China and Japan to third party countries, which has the effect of trade transfer. Moreover, the effect of trade transfer to China is obviously greater than that to Japan. This study not only reveals the root cause of the long controversy between "political cold economy hot" and "political cold economy cold". Moreover, it can provide a realistic basis for China to deal with international political conflicts.
【作者單位】： 中南大學(xué)馬克思主義學(xué)院;南京審計大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“貿(mào)易便利化福利效應(yīng)的微觀機理、實證檢驗與政策設(shè)計:基于企業(yè)異質(zhì)性貿(mào)易模型的研究”(項目編號:71473082) 中南大學(xué)人文社科杰出青年人才(培育)專項資助“國家間經(jīng)濟相互依賴對國際沖突的影響:機制及實證研究”(項目編號:2011RWSK009) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費資助項目“中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的國際政治效應(yīng)”的成果
【分類號】：D822.331.3;F742
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本文編號：1577115