發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-16 11:56

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 美國智庫 和平發(fā)展 接觸派 未定論派 遏制派 對華政策　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著中國綜合國力的全面提升,崛起的中國已經(jīng)成為世界范圍內(nèi)最熱門的話題,而如何應(yīng)對中國的崛起已經(jīng)引起了國際社會廣泛而持久的爭論。面對他們的這些質(zhì)疑,胡錦濤總書記早在2003年就提出要堅(jiān)持走和平崛起的發(fā)展道路,隨后中國政府又在2011年9月6日發(fā)表了《中國和平發(fā)展》白皮書,表明中國正式將和平發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略納入國家戰(zhàn)略之中。但是,中國的崛起是否能走上和平發(fā)展的道路,美國智庫中又形成了不同派別的爭論與不同角度的分析：這些分析既有基于實(shí)力層面的,又有基于意圖層面的,既有立足于事實(shí)的,也有立足于國際關(guān)系理論的。因此,本文從美國智庫對中國與中美關(guān)系的見解與立場出發(fā),梳理了美國智庫中關(guān)于中國和平發(fā)展的三種主流意見,分別是相信中國可以實(shí)現(xiàn)和平崛起并主張美國應(yīng)盡量與中國保持接觸與合作的“接觸派”,對中國能否駕馭自身的發(fā)展道路抱有懷疑態(tài)度的“未定論派”和強(qiáng)調(diào)中美之間矛盾不合調(diào)和并主張對華實(shí)行遏制政策的“遏制派”。 美國智庫專家的立場與角度不同,得出的結(jié)論也迥異。因此,本文主要從兩大方面總結(jié)了美國智庫中三派的觀點(diǎn)：一是從三派對中國和平發(fā)展的實(shí)力因素進(jìn)行分析,總結(jié)了他們對中國發(fā)展過程中的實(shí)力因素是否可以支撐和平發(fā)展總目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)的考量與判斷；二是從三派對中國和平發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略意圖的評判出發(fā),總結(jié)了美國智庫對中國和平發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略意圖真實(shí)可靠性的判斷與主要依據(jù)。 最后,本文分析了美國智庫關(guān)于中國和平發(fā)展的爭論對美國對華政策的影響。前一部分總結(jié)了美國智庫在美國政府對外政策中的功能和作用,以及美國智庫是如何影響美國政府對外政策。最后得出結(jié)論：智庫能夠?qū)γ绹鴮ν鉀Q策機(jī)制產(chǎn)生重要影響。后一部分主要以布什政府和奧巴馬政府的對華政策作為案例分析,通過挖掘智庫對華思想與美國對華政策的相關(guān)性,從智庫三派的對華觀點(diǎn)與美國對華政策在不同時(shí)期的表現(xiàn)與特點(diǎn)方面證明,智庫思想對美國政府產(chǎn)生影響具有必然性。 本文通過收集美國智庫對中國和平發(fā)展的數(shù)據(jù)分析與理論依據(jù),首先是要從這些論據(jù)中梳理出形成美國智庫三大派別的不同觀點(diǎn)及主要原因。其次,探析這三派的觀點(diǎn)對美國對華政策的影響。最后得出結(jié)論：美國智庫對中國和平發(fā)展的爭論的確影響了美國政府的對華政策,同時(shí),這種相關(guān)性啟迪我們研究智庫思想是研究美國外交政策的一個(gè)重要途徑。通過對智庫思想的研究,可以為我們觀察美國對華政策打開一扇新的窗戶,提供一種解讀中美關(guān)系的新視角。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the overall improvement of China's overall national strength, a rising China has become the most popular topic in the world, and how to deal with China's rise has aroused extensive and long-lasting debates in the international community. Facing these questions, General Secretary Hu Jintao put forward as early as 2003 that he should stick to the road of peaceful rise of development.After that, the Chinese Government issued a white paper on "China's peaceful Development" on September 6th 2011. It shows that China has formally incorporated the peaceful development strategy into its national strategy. However, will China's rise be able to embark on the path of peaceful development? In the American think-tank, different factions have been debated and analyzed from different angles: these analyses are based on strength level, intention level, facts and international relations theory. Based on the views and positions of American think-tanks on China-US relations, this paper reviews the three mainstream views of American think-tanks on China's peaceful development. They are the "contacts" who believe that China can achieve its peaceful rise and advocate that the United States should maintain contact and cooperation with China as far as possible, and are sceptical about China's ability to steer its own development path and emphasize China. The contradiction between the United States and the United States to reconcile and advocate the policy of containment of China, the "containment school." The positions and angles of American think-tank experts are different, and their conclusions are also very different. Therefore, this paper mainly summarizes the views of the three schools of American think-tanks from two major aspects: one is to analyze the strength factors of the peaceful development of China from the three parties. It summarizes their consideration and judgment on whether the factors of strength in the process of China's development can support the realization of the overall goal of peaceful development. Second, they judge the strategic intention of China's peaceful development from the perspective of "three parties". This paper summarizes the judgment and main basis of American think-tank on the true reliability of China's strategic intention for peaceful development. Finally, this paper analyzes the impact of the debate on the peaceful development of China by American think-tanks on the US policy towards China. The first part summarizes the functions and functions of US think-tanks in the foreign policy of the US government. And how the US think-tank affects the US government's foreign policy. Finally, it concludes that the think-tank can have an important impact on the US foreign decision-making mechanism. The latter part mainly takes the China policy of the Bush administration and the Obama administration as a case study. By exploring the correlation between the thinking of think tanks on China and the policy of the United States towards China, it is proved that the influence of the thought of think tanks on the United States Government is inevitable from the perspectives of the three schools of think-tanks on China and the performance and characteristics of the American policy on China in different periods. By collecting the data analysis and theoretical basis of American think-tanks on China's peaceful development, the first is to sort out the different viewpoints and main reasons for the formation of the three major schools of American think-tanks from these arguments. Secondly, An analysis of the impact of the views of these three schools on the United States' China policy. Finally, it is concluded that the controversy over the peaceful development of China by the US think-tank has indeed affected the US Government's China policy, and at the same time, This correlation inspires us to study the thinking of think tanks is an important way to study US foreign policy. By studying the thinking of think tanks, we can open a new window for us to observe the United States' China policy. It provides a new angle of view to interpret the relationship between China and the United States.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：D822.3;D871.2

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