本文選題：社會風(fēng)險　切入點：社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警　出處：《華中師范大學(xué)》2011年博士論文

【摘要】：關(guān)注風(fēng)險與和諧是人類社會的永恒話題。目前,處于急劇社會轉(zhuǎn)型期的中國也正面臨著諸多社會風(fēng)險的威脅與挑戰(zhàn)。加強社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警,建構(gòu)一套科學(xué)實用并符合中國國情的社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系乃是當前擺在人們面前的重大理論問題和現(xiàn)實問題。只有建構(gòu)社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系,才能適時監(jiān)控社會風(fēng)險的發(fā)展狀態(tài),及時發(fā)布各種社會風(fēng)險警情,尤其是及時發(fā)布那些重大社會風(fēng)險警報,從而為政府部門制定相關(guān)政策提供參考依據(jù),并動員社會力量將風(fēng)險控制在社會承受力范圍之內(nèi),以防患于未然。由此可見,社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系建構(gòu)是建設(shè)和諧社會,實現(xiàn)社會良性運行與協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的必然選擇。基于此,本論文在國內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論的指導(dǎo)下,分析轉(zhuǎn)型期的重大社會風(fēng)險源,探討指標體系建構(gòu)的結(jié)構(gòu)模型,并依據(jù)科學(xué)方法建構(gòu)一套社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系及各級指標的權(quán)重,將指標體系應(yīng)用在轉(zhuǎn)型期社會風(fēng)險的綜合評價中。 論文關(guān)注的主要問題有：建構(gòu)社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系需要從哪些理論中吸取養(yǎng)分,如何將抽象的理論轉(zhuǎn)化為具體的指標,采用什么樣的方法選擇指標并確定指標的權(quán)重,如何進行風(fēng)險的綜合評價?總之,建構(gòu)社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系,科學(xué)理論的指導(dǎo)和方法的應(yīng)用是兩大關(guān)鍵。 基于此,本文的主要研究內(nèi)容包括： 導(dǎo)論。主要說明本研究的緣起和意義,檢視和評論國內(nèi)外已有的研究,界定了主要概念,并交待了行文邏輯以及研究方法。 第一章,研究社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警的理論基礎(chǔ),討論風(fēng)險社會理論、社會沖突理論等在社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系建構(gòu)中所具有的啟發(fā)意義。 第二章,分析轉(zhuǎn)型期中國社會風(fēng)險源,為社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系的建構(gòu)提供現(xiàn)實依據(jù)。首先探討社會轉(zhuǎn)型與社會風(fēng)險的內(nèi)在邏輯,揭示工業(yè)化、城市化、市場化和全球化與社會風(fēng)險的關(guān)聯(lián)；其次,根據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)型期中國社會發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,探討和研究當前主要社會風(fēng)險的基本現(xiàn)狀,尤其關(guān)注的是與民生息息相關(guān)的、結(jié)構(gòu)性和制度性的各種風(fēng)險,包括人口風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟生活風(fēng)險、社會生活風(fēng)險、政治生活風(fēng)險、文化心理風(fēng)險和自然生態(tài)風(fēng)險；最后,分析轉(zhuǎn)型時期社會風(fēng)險具有的復(fù)合性、結(jié)構(gòu)性、擴散性、多發(fā)性和高危性等特征,從而再現(xiàn)了轉(zhuǎn)型期中國的社會風(fēng)險景象。 第三章,研究社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系建構(gòu)中的結(jié)構(gòu)模型。社會指標體系建構(gòu)的過程實質(zhì)上就是從理論到模型再到指標的逐步操作化的過程。結(jié)構(gòu)模型將抽象的理論和具體的指標聯(lián)接起來,從而為下一步指標體系的設(shè)計提供有力的理論支撐和方法指導(dǎo)。本章提出了轉(zhuǎn)型時期社會風(fēng)險景象圖、社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系建構(gòu)的三維圖,詳細分析了社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系建構(gòu)的時間維結(jié)構(gòu)模型和邏輯維結(jié)構(gòu)模型。 第四章,建構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型期中國社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系。這是本文研究的重點,主要討論指標體系建構(gòu)的基本原則和出發(fā)點,根據(jù)專家咨詢方法和社會統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)分析,設(shè)計包含六個一級指標、十九個二級指標、四十八個三級指標的社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系的基本框架,并對具體指標含義作出解釋。 第五章,確定社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系各級指標的權(quán)重。在專家咨詢的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用聚類分析、冪法、相似系數(shù)加權(quán)等一系列技術(shù)手段,將專家的主觀判斷和統(tǒng)計技術(shù)結(jié)合起來,將定性研究和定量研究結(jié)合起來,從而保證了權(quán)重確定的科學(xué)性。 第六章,綜合評價轉(zhuǎn)型期中國社會風(fēng)險狀況。根據(jù)本文建立的社會風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標體系,收集各種統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)和調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),將預(yù)警指標進行無量綱化變換并構(gòu)造社會風(fēng)險綜合評價模型后,對當前中國的社會風(fēng)險狀況做全面的評估,計算出總體風(fēng)險指標值和各二級指標的風(fēng)險值。 第七章,結(jié)論及展望。主要對本研究中所涉及的有關(guān)理論和方法問題所作的全面歸納及提升,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出有待進一步探討的問題。
[Abstract]:It is an eternal topic of human society to pay attention to risk and harmony . At present , China is facing many threats and challenges of social risks . At present , it is an inevitable choice to construct a set of scientific and practical social risk alert indicators .

The main problems of this paper are : how to construct the index system of social risk pre - warning , how to absorb nutrients from the theories , how to transform abstract theory into specific index , how to select the index and determine the weight of the index , how to carry out the comprehensive evaluation of risk ?

Based on this , the main research contents include :

This paper mainly explains the origin and significance of the study , examines and reviews the existing studies at home and abroad , defines the main concepts , and submits the logic of the line and the research methods .

The first chapter is to study the theoretical foundation of social risk early warning , discuss the significance of risk society theory , social conflict theory and so on in the construction of social risk early warning index system .

The second chapter analyzes the social risk sources in the period of transition , and provides the realistic basis for the construction of the social risk early warning index system . Firstly , the internal logic of social transformation and social risk is discussed , and the correlation between industrialization , urbanization , marketization and globalization and social risk is revealed .
Secondly , according to the present situation of China ' s social development in the period of transition , the present situation of the present major social risks is discussed and studied , and the risks including population risk , economic life risk , social life risk , political life risk , cultural psychological risk and natural ecological risk are discussed .
Finally , it analyzes the characteristics of the social risks in the transitional period , such as compound , structural , diffuse , multiple and high - risk , and thus reproduces the social risk scene in the transitional period .

In the third chapter , the structure model in the construction of the index system of social risk early warning is studied . The process of constructing the social index system is from the theory to the model to the gradual operation of the index . The structural model provides powerful theoretical support and method guidance for the design of the next step index system . This chapter puts forward three - dimensional map of the social risk scene graph and the construction of the social risk early warning index system , and analyzes the time dimension structure model and the logical dimension structure model of the social risk early warning index system .

In chapter 4 , the index system of social risk early warning in China is set up . This is the focus of this paper . It mainly discusses the basic principles and starting points of the construction of the index system . According to the expert consultation method and the data analysis of social statistics , the basic frame of the social risk early warning index system including six primary indicators , nineteen second - level indicators and forty - eight third - level indicators is designed , and the meaning of the specific indicators is explained .

In the fifth chapter , the weights of indicators at all levels are determined . On the basis of expert consultation , a series of technical means such as cluster analysis , power method and similarity coefficient weighting are applied to combine subjective judgement and statistical techniques of experts , and qualitative research and quantitative research are combined to ensure the scientific nature of weight determination .

The sixth chapter comprehensively evaluates the social risk situation of China in the period of transition . According to the social risk early warning index system established in this paper , various statistical data and survey data are collected , the warning index is transformed and the comprehensive evaluation model of the social risk is constructed , and the risk value of the overall risk index value and each secondary index is calculated .

In chapter 7 , the conclusions and prospects are summarized and the problems related to the theory and method in this study are summarized and promoted , and the problems to be discussed further are put forward .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號】：C912

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