沿海地區(qū)農(nóng)村居民收入對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-29 13:33
【摘要】：消費(fèi)是拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要組成部分之一,近年來我國經(jīng)濟(jì)雖已取得長足發(fā)展,但消費(fèi)對(duì)GDP貢獻(xiàn)持續(xù)走低。盡管如此,農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場仍有較大發(fā)展空間,激發(fā)農(nóng)民消費(fèi)潛力,提升居民消費(fèi)水平有助于推動(dòng)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。因此研究我國農(nóng)村居民收入對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響對(duì)促進(jìn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有重要作用。在新中國的發(fā)展歷程中,我國沿海地區(qū)對(duì)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的拉動(dòng)是有目共睹的。除港澳臺(tái)外的11個(gè)省級(jí)行政單位約43%的人口貢獻(xiàn)了全國約60%的GDP。然而,我國沿海地區(qū)在消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)方面還是存在不足。農(nóng)村居民收入和消費(fèi)水平雖有顯著提升,但城鄉(xiāng)收入與消費(fèi)差距卻在逐漸拉大,農(nóng)村消費(fèi)市場還沒有達(dá)到應(yīng)有的水平。釋放農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)需求對(duì)于解決城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu),拉動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有重要作用。在農(nóng)村居民收入對(duì)消費(fèi)影響的研究方面,本文參考了西方消費(fèi)理論及區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)研究成果,綜合國內(nèi)外優(yōu)秀學(xué)者的研究方法,采用理論和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方式,探究我國沿海地區(qū)農(nóng)村居民收入對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響。本文對(duì)2000 2014年我國沿海地區(qū)11個(gè)省級(jí)行政單位的多項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)在收入類型變化上我國沿海地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)了獨(dú)有特點(diǎn)。在四類收入來源中,農(nóng)村居民工資性收入和家庭經(jīng)營性收入占比最大,而財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入和轉(zhuǎn)移性收入僅占到總收入的15%左右。近年來,我國沿海地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化速度不斷加快,農(nóng)村居民的工資性收入逐漸趕超家庭經(jīng)營性收入,成為最重要的收入來源。在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文基于面板數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析我國沿海地區(qū)11省市農(nóng)村居民四類收入來源具體變動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)水平的影響,建立多元回歸模型,通過E views9.0進(jìn)行模型檢驗(yàn)和估計(jì)。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):1)我國沿海地區(qū)農(nóng)村居民工資性收入對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響存在乘數(shù)效應(yīng),工資性收入已成為務(wù)工農(nóng)民較為穩(wěn)定的一類收入;2)農(nóng)村家庭經(jīng)營性收入對(duì)消費(fèi)有較小的邊際消費(fèi)傾向,主要原因在于農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施薄弱、自然災(zāi)害頻繁、相關(guān)保險(xiǎn)機(jī)制不健全等原因?qū)е罗r(nóng)民對(duì)該類收入心存不確定性;3)農(nóng)村居民財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入和轉(zhuǎn)移性收入對(duì)消費(fèi)存在顯著正向影響,其中財(cái)產(chǎn)性收入存在乘數(shù)效應(yīng);4)恩格爾系數(shù)、農(nóng)村最低生活保障以及農(nóng)村居民的受教育程度對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)水平也存在影響。針對(duì)以上研究,結(jié)合沿海地區(qū)的現(xiàn)狀與發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì),本文認(rèn)為加快農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、完善農(nóng)村金融體制改革和產(chǎn)權(quán)制度改革、健全社會(huì)保障體系等舉措可以增加農(nóng)村居民收入,改善農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)環(huán)境,刺激農(nóng)村居民需求,提升消費(fèi)水平,縮小城鄉(xiāng)差異,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Consumption is one of the important components of stimulating economic growth. Although China's economy has made great progress in recent years, the contribution of consumption to GDP has continued to decline. In spite of this, the rural consumption market still has bigger development space, stimulates the farmer to consume the potential, enhances the resident consumption level to help to promote our country economy development. Therefore, the study of the impact of rural residents' income on consumption plays an important role in promoting China's economic development. In the course of the development of New China, it is obvious to all that the coastal areas of our country pull the national economic aggregate. In addition to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, about 43% of the population of the 11 provincial administrative units contribute about 60% of the country's GDP.. However, China's coastal areas in the consumption-driven economy is still inadequate. Although the income and consumption level of rural residents have been significantly improved, the gap between urban and rural income and consumption has gradually widened, and the rural consumer market has not reached its due level. Releasing the consumption demand of rural residents plays an important role in solving the dual structure of urban and rural areas and stimulating regional economic growth. In the research of the influence of rural residents' income on consumption, this paper, referring to the western consumption theory and the research results of regional economy, synthesizes the research methods of outstanding scholars at home and abroad, and adopts the combination of theory and empirical analysis. To explore the impact of rural residents' income on consumption in coastal areas of China. This paper analyzes the economic data of 11 provincial administrative units in the coastal areas of China from 2000 to 2014. It is found that there are unique characteristics in the changes of income types in the coastal areas of China. Among the four kinds of income sources, rural residents' wage income and household operating income accounted for the largest proportion, while property income and transfer income accounted for only about 15% of the total income. In recent years, the speed of urbanization in the coastal areas of our country has been speeding up, and the income of rural residents has gradually surpassed the income of household management, which has become the most important source of income. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the change of four kinds of income sources on the consumption level of rural residents in 11 provinces and cities in coastal areas of China based on panel data. A multivariate regression model is established, and the model is tested and estimated by E / views9.0. The results show that: 1) the effect of wage income on consumption of rural residents in coastal areas of China has a multiplier effect. Wage income has become a more stable class of income for migrant farmers. 2) the rural household operating income has a small marginal propensity to consume, mainly due to the weak rural infrastructure and frequent natural disasters. The related insurance mechanism is not perfect and other reasons lead to the farmers have uncertainty about this kind of income. 3) the property income and the transfer income of rural residents have significant positive influence on consumption, in which the property income has multiplier effect (4) Engel coefficient. Rural minimum living security and rural residents' education level also affect the consumption level of rural residents. In view of the above research, combined with the current situation and development situation of the coastal areas, this paper thinks that speeding up the adjustment of the industrial structure of rural economy, perfecting the reform of the rural financial system and the reform of the property right system, Perfecting the social security system and other measures can increase the income of rural residents, improve the consumption environment of rural residents, stimulate the demand of rural residents, improve the consumption level, reduce the differences between urban and rural areas, so as to achieve rural economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.8
[Abstract]:Consumption is one of the important components of stimulating economic growth. Although China's economy has made great progress in recent years, the contribution of consumption to GDP has continued to decline. In spite of this, the rural consumption market still has bigger development space, stimulates the farmer to consume the potential, enhances the resident consumption level to help to promote our country economy development. Therefore, the study of the impact of rural residents' income on consumption plays an important role in promoting China's economic development. In the course of the development of New China, it is obvious to all that the coastal areas of our country pull the national economic aggregate. In addition to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, about 43% of the population of the 11 provincial administrative units contribute about 60% of the country's GDP.. However, China's coastal areas in the consumption-driven economy is still inadequate. Although the income and consumption level of rural residents have been significantly improved, the gap between urban and rural income and consumption has gradually widened, and the rural consumer market has not reached its due level. Releasing the consumption demand of rural residents plays an important role in solving the dual structure of urban and rural areas and stimulating regional economic growth. In the research of the influence of rural residents' income on consumption, this paper, referring to the western consumption theory and the research results of regional economy, synthesizes the research methods of outstanding scholars at home and abroad, and adopts the combination of theory and empirical analysis. To explore the impact of rural residents' income on consumption in coastal areas of China. This paper analyzes the economic data of 11 provincial administrative units in the coastal areas of China from 2000 to 2014. It is found that there are unique characteristics in the changes of income types in the coastal areas of China. Among the four kinds of income sources, rural residents' wage income and household operating income accounted for the largest proportion, while property income and transfer income accounted for only about 15% of the total income. In recent years, the speed of urbanization in the coastal areas of our country has been speeding up, and the income of rural residents has gradually surpassed the income of household management, which has become the most important source of income. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the change of four kinds of income sources on the consumption level of rural residents in 11 provinces and cities in coastal areas of China based on panel data. A multivariate regression model is established, and the model is tested and estimated by E / views9.0. The results show that: 1) the effect of wage income on consumption of rural residents in coastal areas of China has a multiplier effect. Wage income has become a more stable class of income for migrant farmers. 2) the rural household operating income has a small marginal propensity to consume, mainly due to the weak rural infrastructure and frequent natural disasters. The related insurance mechanism is not perfect and other reasons lead to the farmers have uncertainty about this kind of income. 3) the property income and the transfer income of rural residents have significant positive influence on consumption, in which the property income has multiplier effect (4) Engel coefficient. Rural minimum living security and rural residents' education level also affect the consumption level of rural residents. In view of the above research, combined with the current situation and development situation of the coastal areas, this paper thinks that speeding up the adjustment of the industrial structure of rural economy, perfecting the reform of the rural financial system and the reform of the property right system, Perfecting the social security system and other measures can increase the income of rural residents, improve the consumption environment of rural residents, stimulate the demand of rural residents, improve the consumption level, reduce the differences between urban and rural areas, so as to achieve rural economic development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F323.8
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