本文選題：家庭消費(fèi) + 生育選擇��； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2016年05期

【摘要】：家庭消費(fèi)會(huì)直接影響生育選擇,從消費(fèi)角度探索提高生育水平的路徑具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文借鑒Cass-Koopmans模型,構(gòu)建家庭消費(fèi)與生育選擇的關(guān)系模型,利用中國1978—2014年數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行模型估計(jì)和驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):在消費(fèi)和資本差異較大的情況下,消費(fèi)水平的提高會(huì)帶來生育率提高,而人均資本水平的提高則會(huì)帶來生育率下降;生育率與人均資本、生育率與消費(fèi)水平的關(guān)系均呈現(xiàn)倒U型曲線,消費(fèi)水平的拐點(diǎn)數(shù)值比人均資本更大,意味著生育補(bǔ)貼和生育保險(xiǎn)等社會(huì)保障可以抑制消費(fèi)水平拐點(diǎn)的發(fā)生,在一定程度上會(huì)提高當(dāng)前生育率。調(diào)整生育意愿,提高生育率,可以通過有計(jì)劃分步地改革生育保險(xiǎn)制度、健全和統(tǒng)一養(yǎng)老社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)制度和保障婦女勞動(dòng)參與等措施來實(shí)現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Family consumption will directly affect fertility choice. It is of practical significance to explore ways to improve fertility level from the perspective of consumption. Using Cass-Koopmans model for reference, this paper constructs a relationship model between family consumption and reproductive choice, and uses Chinese data from 1978 to 2014 to estimate and verify the model. The results show that: in the case of large differences in consumption and capital, The increase of consumption level will lead to the increase of fertility rate, while the increase of per capita capital level will bring about the decline of fertility rate, and the relationship between fertility and capital per capita, fertility and consumption level will all show an inverted U-shaped curve. The inflection point of consumption level is larger than per capita capital which means that social security such as birth allowance and birth insurance can restrain the inflection point of consumption level and to some extent will increase the current fertility rate. Adjusting the willingness to bear and raising the fertility rate can be realized through the planned reform of the birth insurance system, the improvement and unification of the old-age social insurance system and the protection of women's participation in labor.
【作者單位】： 內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金青年基金項(xiàng)目“蒙古族生育轉(zhuǎn)變及對其生計(jì)選擇的作用機(jī)理研究”(71303102) 高等學(xué)校博士學(xué)科點(diǎn)專項(xiàng)科研基金聯(lián)合資助課題“民族地區(qū)加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式與改善民生關(guān)系研究:以內(nèi)蒙古為例”(20131501120008) 內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目“‘放開二胎’政策下蒙漢居民生育意愿調(diào)整和生育行為比較研究”(2015MS0710)
【分類號】：F126.1;C924.2

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 李新建;;中國的人口變動(dòng)與家庭消費(fèi)問題探討[J];人口與計(jì)劃生育;1993年05期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 譚蘇華;流動(dòng)人口家庭消費(fèi)的空間差異和影響因素研究[D];福建師范大學(xué);2015年

，

本文編號：2092023