本文選題：養(yǎng)老保險　切入點：替代率　出處：《浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：養(yǎng)老保險替代率是考察養(yǎng)老保險制度的重要指標(biāo)之一,它關(guān)系著每一位退休老年人晚年生活質(zhì)量和社會負(fù)擔(dān)能力。本文通過從基本養(yǎng)老保險基金收支平衡和個人效用最優(yōu)化兩個方面定量推定適度水平,并與基本養(yǎng)老保險替代率現(xiàn)實水平進行對比研究,以反映浙江省現(xiàn)行養(yǎng)老保險的保障情況,考察浙江省基本養(yǎng)老保險平均替代率適度性。社會保障制度的建立是人類社會文明進步的里程碑。社會養(yǎng)老保險是社會保險制度,乃至整個社會保障制度的核心。它的建立保障了社會成員在老年退出社會勞動領(lǐng)域之后獲得相應(yīng)固定的養(yǎng)老金收入和維持退休基本生活的需要。尤其在當(dāng)今中國老齡化趨勢不斷加深的背景下,現(xiàn)行的養(yǎng)老保險制度運行的完備與否,對于中國的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展和和平崛起具有至關(guān)重要的作用。根據(jù)中國前瞻產(chǎn)業(yè)研究院2015年2月發(fā)布的《2015-2020年中國老年健康服務(wù)行業(yè)發(fā)展前景與投資機會分析報告》,截止2014年底,中國60周歲以上人口已經(jīng)達(dá)到2.12億,占總?cè)丝跀?shù)的15.5%。報告預(yù)測2015-2020年將是中國人口老齡化高速增長期,人口老齡化規(guī)模呈現(xiàn)出“總量擴張、增量提速”的趨勢。預(yù)計2020年,中國60周歲以上人口將達(dá)到2.5億,2025年將達(dá)到3億,成為超老年型國家。2015年全國社會保險基金預(yù)算顯示,剔除中央財政補貼,全國養(yǎng)老保險基金虧空超過3000億元,比2014年的1563億元顯著擴大,多個地方政府養(yǎng)老保險基金運行入不敷出。人口老齡化趨勢加劇給全國養(yǎng)老保險基金運行帶來了巨大壓力,社會養(yǎng)老保險制度改革已是迫在眉睫。本文第一章,介紹了研究背景、研究意義、研究內(nèi)容和整體框架。第二章,系統(tǒng)梳理和回顧國內(nèi)外養(yǎng)老保險替代率研究文獻。第三章,對基本養(yǎng)老保險替代率相關(guān)概念和指標(biāo)進行外延界定和比較研究,并確定平均替代率作為研究核心。第四章,從個人效用水平角度,運用基于延期退休視角的跨期世代交疊模型推定浙江省基本養(yǎng)老保險替代率最優(yōu)路徑,得到浙江省社會統(tǒng)籌賬戶和個人賬戶最優(yōu)替代率區(qū)間。再結(jié)合保險精算平衡模型推定的結(jié)果,確定適度水平區(qū)間為[37.17%,45%]。第五章,從基本養(yǎng)老保險基金收支平衡角度,基于人口模型,建立浙江省基本養(yǎng)老保險基金收支平衡模型,確定適度水平為36.61%。第六章,考察了浙江省基本養(yǎng)老保險平均替代率現(xiàn)實水平區(qū)間為[35%,40%]。比較研究現(xiàn)實水平和適度水平,結(jié)論為浙江省基本養(yǎng)老保險平均替代率現(xiàn)實水平總體不是適度水平,應(yīng)適當(dāng)提高養(yǎng)老金增幅和延遲退休。
[Abstract]:The replacement rate of old-age insurance is one of the important indicators to investigate the old-age insurance system. It is related to the quality of life and social affordability of every retired old man in his later years. This paper quantitatively deduces the appropriate level from two aspects: the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund and the optimization of individual utility. And compared with the actual level of the replacement rate of basic old-age insurance, to reflect the current endowment insurance in Zhejiang Province, The average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is moderate. The establishment of social security system is a milestone in the progress of human civilization. Even the core of the whole social security system. Its establishment has guaranteed the social members to obtain the corresponding fixed pension income and the need to maintain the retirement basic life after the old people withdraw from the social labor field. Against the backdrop of a growing trend of ageing, Whether the current old-age insurance system is complete or not, It is of vital importance to the stable development and peaceful rise of China. According to the report on the prospects and Investment opportunities of China's Geriatric Health Service Industry for 2015-2020, issued on February 2015 by the China prospective Industrial Research Institute, as of end of 2014, China's population over 60 years old has reached 212 million, accounting for 15.50.The report predicts that 2015-2020 will be a period of rapid growth in China's population aging, with the population aging scale showing a trend of "total expansion, incremental acceleration". It is expected that in 2020, China's population over 60 will reach 250 million, and in 2025 it will reach 300 million, making it a super-old country. In 2015, the budget of the National Social Insurance Fund showed that, excluding the central financial subsidy, the national pension insurance fund was in deficit of more than 300 billion yuan. Compared with the 156.3 billion yuan in 2014, many local government pension insurance funds are running more than they can make ends meet. The aging trend of the population has brought tremendous pressure to the operation of the national pension insurance funds. It is urgent to reform the social endowment insurance system. The first chapter introduces the background, significance, content and overall framework of the research. Chapter two systematically combs and reviews the research literature of the replacement rate of the endowment insurance at home and abroad. This paper defines and compares the related concepts and indicators of the replacement rate of basic old-age insurance, and determines that the average replacement rate is the core of the study. Chapter 4th, from the perspective of individual utility level, The optimal path of replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is deduced by using the intertemporal intergenerational overlap model based on the perspective of deferred retirement. The optimal substitution rate interval of social balance account and individual account in Zhejiang Province is obtained. Combined with the result of insurance actuarial balance model, the appropriate level range is determined to be [37.17%]. Chapter 5th, from the angle of income and expenditure balance of basic pension insurance fund, Based on the population model, this paper establishes the balance model of the basic old-age insurance fund in Zhejiang Province, and determines that the appropriate level is 36.610.Chapter 6th, The average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is studied in this paper. The average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is [35 / 40%]. It is concluded that the realistic level of average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance in Zhejiang Province is not moderate in general. Pension increases and delays in retirement should be appropriately increased.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67

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