【摘要】：如何激活二次人口紅利,是當(dāng)前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化面臨的重要問(wèn)題。文章從微觀層面的人口時(shí)間配置和人口收入配置為出發(fā)點(diǎn),從企業(yè)生產(chǎn)供給視角構(gòu)建一個(gè)以人口為中心的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行體系。理論分析得出,人口老齡化分別基于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)、勞動(dòng)力占比和儲(chǔ)蓄傾向三類(lèi)效應(yīng)路徑影響人口紅利�；谥袊�(guó)2000~2014年分省面板數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)人口老齡化抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),對(duì)人口紅利產(chǎn)生負(fù)向影響;(2)人口老齡化對(duì)人口紅利影響依賴于平均受教育年限、大專(zhuān)以上學(xué)歷占比、人均資本存量、儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率、城市化率、二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比和人均公共服務(wù)支出。據(jù)此,文章從激勵(lì)教育發(fā)展、資本積累、城鎮(zhèn)化戰(zhàn)略、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型和政府公共服務(wù)有效供給五個(gè)方面,提出了降低人口老齡化對(duì)人口紅利抑制的政策建議。
[Abstract]:How to activate the secondary demographic dividend is an important problem for China's economy to cope with aging. From the micro level of population time allocation and population income allocation as the starting point, this paper constructs a population-centered economic operation system from the perspective of enterprise production and supply. The theoretical analysis shows that the aging of the population is based on the consumption structure, the proportion of labor force and the tendency to save, respectively, which affect the demographic dividend. Based on the provincial panel data of China in 2000 / 2014, it is found that: (1) the aging of the population suppresses economic growth and has a negative impact on the demographic dividend; (2) the impact of population aging on the demographic dividend depends on the average number of years of education, the proportion of college education or above, the per capita capital stock, the conversion rate of savings and investment, the urbanization rate, the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries and per capita expenditure on public services. Based on this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the inhibition of population dividend from five aspects: incentive education development, capital accumulation, urbanization strategy, industrial transformation and effective supply of government public services.
【作者單位】： 云南大學(xué)發(fā)展研究院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目“城市化進(jìn)程中的‘適度人口’動(dòng)態(tài)測(cè)度及路徑實(shí)現(xiàn)”(12CRK021) 云南省哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)規(guī)劃一般項(xiàng)目“基于人口老齡化趨勢(shì)的云南二次人口紅利研究”(YB2016038) 云南省應(yīng)用基礎(chǔ)研究面上項(xiàng)目“考慮空間外溢效應(yīng)的城市適度人口動(dòng)態(tài)區(qū)間及實(shí)現(xiàn)策略研究——以滇中城市群為例”(2014FB115)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C92
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本文編號(hào)：2527812