【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來,我國(guó)中部地區(qū)省際流出人口規(guī)模占全國(guó)跨省流出人口的四成以上,隨著中部流出人口規(guī)模比例的不斷擴(kuò)大,對(duì)中部人口流出的研究顯得必要和迫切。本文利用多種宏觀和微觀數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合多種方法,從中部省際人口流出的特征及變化、流出原因和人口流出后對(duì)中部地區(qū)的影響三方面進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究。首先,利用2000年以來歷次全國(guó)人口普查、全國(guó)1%抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)和2015年流動(dòng)人口動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),采用描述性分析方法,從整體和分省角度對(duì)中部地區(qū)人口流出作變動(dòng)和現(xiàn)狀分析。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)中部省際流出人口規(guī)模增速有所上升,但相對(duì)全國(guó)有所放緩;中部流出人口的流向選擇具有區(qū)域聚集性,而這種集聚性有擴(kuò)散趨勢(shì),開始逐漸從珠三角向長(zhǎng)三角經(jīng)濟(jì)帶轉(zhuǎn)移;中部地區(qū)與中部地區(qū)之間人口流動(dòng)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系也有所加強(qiáng)。其次,通過建立線性方程組模型和多分類Logit模型分別從宏觀層面和微觀層面分析了中部地區(qū)流出人口流向選擇的影響因素,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)距離、教育投入和經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)中部人口流出的影響最為明顯,而醫(yī)療、失業(yè)率、城鎮(zhèn)化率、交通便利性并不明顯。最后,通過建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差距兩個(gè)方面研究中部人口流出的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)中部各省人口流出的影響有所差異,但從整體來看中部人口跨省流出不利于中部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),也不利于縮小中部地區(qū)與中部跨省流出人口主要流向地的經(jīng)濟(jì)差距。中部地區(qū)人口基數(shù)大,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相對(duì)滯后,人口流出是個(gè)人出于利益最大化的理性選擇結(jié)果,繼續(xù)推行促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力自由流動(dòng)的方針政策仍有必要。與此同時(shí),伴隨中部人口流出對(duì)中部地區(qū)可能造成的行業(yè)就業(yè)替代等問題也需要得到重視。政府應(yīng)積極發(fā)揮公共服務(wù)提供者的作用,加大對(duì)中部地區(qū)教育、醫(yī)療和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)等方面的投入,并積極采取措施,因地制宜,促進(jìn)中部地區(qū)發(fā)展具有自身比較優(yōu)勢(shì)的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)。通過本文的研究,希望能夠更加深入了解中部地區(qū)人口流出與中部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,從而更好地推動(dòng)“中部崛起”戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, the scale of inter-provincial outflow of population in central China has accounted for more than 40% of the cross-provincial outflow population in China. With the expansion of the proportion of population outflow in central China, it is necessary and urgent to study the outflow of population in central China. This paper makes a systematic study on the characteristics and changes of inter-provincial population outflow in central China, the causes of outflow and the influence on the central region after outflow by using a variety of macro and micro data and combined with various methods. First of all, using the national population censuses since 2000, the national 1% sample survey data and the 2015 mobile population dynamics monitoring data, the descriptive analysis method is used. This paper analyzes the changes and current situation of population outflow in central China from the angle of whole and province. The results show that the growth rate of the population outflow from central provinces is increasing, but it is slower than that of the whole country. The flow direction selection of the outflow population in the central region has the regional aggregation, and this kind of agglomeration has the tendency of diffusion, beginning to transfer gradually from the Pearl River Delta to the economic belt of the Yangtze River Delta, and the interaction between the central region and the central region is also strengthened. Secondly, through the establishment of linear equation group model and multi-classification Logit model, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of the flow direction of outflow population in the central region from the macro level and the micro level, and finds out the distance. Education investment and economic factors have the most obvious influence on the outflow of population in the central region, but medical treatment, unemployment rate, urbanization rate and transportation convenience are not obvious. Finally, through the establishment of panel data model, from the two aspects of economic growth and regional economic disparity, the paper studies the impact of population outflow in central China. The results show that there are differences in the impact of population outflow in central provinces. But as a whole, the inter-provincial outflow of the central population is not conducive to the economic growth of the central region, nor is it conducive to narrowing the economic gap between the central region and the central inter-provincial outflow population. The central region has a large population base and lagged economic development. Population outflow is the result of rational choice of individual out of profit maximization. It is necessary to continue to carry out the policy of promoting the free flow of labor force. At the same time, along with the outflow of the central population to the central region may cause employment substitution and other issues need to be paid attention to. The government should give full play to the role of public service providers, increase investment in education, health care and infrastructure construction in the central region, and take active measures to cope with local conditions. Promote the central region to develop its own comparative advantage of products and services. Through the research of this paper, we hope to understand the interactive relationship between the outflow of population and the economic development of the central region, so as to better promote the implementation of the strategy of "the rise of the central region".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2

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