【摘要】：消費(fèi)一直以來(lái)都是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的重點(diǎn),隨著莫迪利安尼生命周期消費(fèi)理論的產(chǎn)生,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)成為影響消費(fèi)的因素之一被學(xué)者予以重視。尤其是現(xiàn)在,隨著世界老年人口占總?cè)丝诒戎夭粩嗵岣?各國(guó)相繼進(jìn)入了老齡社會(huì),人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響愈發(fā)突出。這篇文章以世界上老齡化程度最高的國(guó)家——日本作為研究對(duì)象,探究日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)及其對(duì)消費(fèi)水平和邊際消費(fèi)傾向的影響,這對(duì)于剛剛于2002年邁入老齡社會(huì)的中國(guó)而言具有重要的借鑒意義。這篇文章系統(tǒng)的梳理了各種消費(fèi)理論,并結(jié)合已有的研究消費(fèi)影響因素的文獻(xiàn),將影響消費(fèi)的因素概括為經(jīng)濟(jì)因素、制度因素、人口因素和環(huán)境心理因素。在對(duì)消費(fèi)理論進(jìn)行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,這篇文章分別對(duì)日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和消費(fèi)的變動(dòng)進(jìn)行了定性分析,闡述了1944~2015年間日本人口數(shù)量和人口結(jié)構(gòu)兩個(gè)方面的變動(dòng)特點(diǎn),并對(duì)日本總消費(fèi)支出、人均實(shí)際消費(fèi)支出以及消費(fèi)率的變動(dòng)進(jìn)行描述性說(shuō)明,同時(shí)就人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)中各個(gè)指標(biāo)與消費(fèi)水平、消費(fèi)率之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行初步預(yù)測(cè)。這篇文章使用1980~2015年間的日本人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)和消費(fèi)指標(biāo)構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型(VAR),運(yùn)用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)的分析方法和方差分解分析法探究三階段人口比重的變動(dòng)對(duì)人均實(shí)際消費(fèi)支出和消費(fèi)率的影響方向和影響大小。研究表明,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變動(dòng)確實(shí)會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生影響,少兒撫養(yǎng)比的提高會(huì)抑制人均實(shí)際消費(fèi)支出的增長(zhǎng),而老年撫養(yǎng)比和勞動(dòng)者比重的提高會(huì)促進(jìn)人均消費(fèi)支出的增長(zhǎng);少兒撫養(yǎng)比對(duì)消費(fèi)率的影響存在不確定性,老年撫養(yǎng)比和勞動(dòng)者比重對(duì)消費(fèi)率分別產(chǎn)生正向與負(fù)向的影響。除消費(fèi)自身的沖擊之外,短期內(nèi)影響人均實(shí)際消費(fèi)支出的最主要的因素是人均實(shí)際GDP,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)則是少兒撫養(yǎng)比。影響消費(fèi)率最主要的因素自始至終一直是人均實(shí)際GDP。從長(zhǎng)期看,相比于老年人口比重,少兒人口比重對(duì)消費(fèi)有更大的影響�；谝陨涎芯拷Y(jié)果,這篇文章從經(jīng)濟(jì)政策制定、養(yǎng)老政策制定以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整等角度,對(duì)中國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)并利用好老齡社會(huì)提出建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption has always been the focus of economic research. With the emergence of Modigliani's life-cycle consumption theory, the age structure of population has become one of the factors that affect consumption. Especially now, with the increasing proportion of the world's elderly population in the total population, countries have entered the aging society, the impact of population age structure on consumption is becoming more and more prominent. Taking Japan, the world's most aging country, as the research object, this paper explores the changes in the age structure of Japan's population and its impact on the level of consumption and marginal propensity to consume. This is of great significance to China, which has just stepped into an aging society in 2002. This article systematically combs all kinds of consumption theories, and combines the existing literature to study the influencing factors of consumption. The factors that affect consumption are summarized as economic factors, institutional factors, population factors and environmental psychological factors. On the basis of combing the consumption theory, this article has carried on the qualitative analysis to the Japanese population age structure and the consumption change separately, elaborated the Japanese population quantity and the population structure two aspects between 1944 and 2015 the change characteristic. The changes of total consumption expenditure per capita actual consumption expenditure and consumption rate in Japan are described and the relationship between each index of population age structure and consumption level and consumption rate is preliminarily forecasted. This paper uses the age structure index and consumption index of Japanese population from 1980 to 2015 to construct a vector autoregressive model (VAR), using impulse response function analysis method and variance decomposition analysis method to explore the change of population proportion in three stages. Real consumption expenditure and consumption rate of the impact of the direction and size of the impact. The study shows that the change of the age structure of the population does have an impact on the consumption, the increase of the children's dependency ratio will restrain the increase of the per capita actual consumption expenditure, while the increase of the old-age dependency ratio and the proportion of workers will promote the increase of the per capita consumption expenditure. The influence of child dependency ratio on consumption rate is uncertain, and the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of workers have positive and negative effects on consumption rate, respectively. In addition to the impact of consumption itself, the most important factor that affects the actual consumption expenditure in the short term is that the actual GDP, per capita in the long run is the child dependency ratio. The most important factor affecting consumption rate has been real GDP. per capita from beginning to end. In the long term, compared with the proportion of the elderly, the proportion of children has a greater impact on consumption. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to make good use of the aging society in China from the angles of economic policy formulation, pension policy formulation and industrial structure adjustment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.313;F131.3

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