【摘要】：在人口老齡化的背景下,隨著我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)退休職工人數(shù)的不斷增多,參加工作的勞動(dòng)人口數(shù)量不斷減少,城鎮(zhèn)職工統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金賬戶收支情況嚴(yán)峻。面對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支缺口的嚴(yán)峻形勢(shì),2013年,國(guó)家提出了“單獨(dú)二孩”政策,但“單獨(dú)二孩”政策下年輕人的生育意愿和實(shí)際生育率都未達(dá)預(yù)期,其實(shí)施效果并不盡如人意。2015年,國(guó)家又提出了“全面二孩”政策,這是對(duì)“單獨(dú)二孩”政策的進(jìn)一步完善與深化。那么在人口老齡化的大背景下,“全面二孩”政策的實(shí)施在什么時(shí)點(diǎn)可以改善城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支缺口狀況以及改善的幅度有多大,就成為本文研究的重點(diǎn)。本文由五個(gè)部分組成,第一部分為緒論,論述了此次研究的背景與意義、研究目的與研究?jī)?nèi)容、國(guó)內(nèi)外現(xiàn)狀、本文的研究方法及創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)。第二部分介紹我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度及養(yǎng)老金收支現(xiàn)狀,先具體介紹我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老金制度的具體演變過程,然后對(duì)養(yǎng)老金的運(yùn)行進(jìn)行闡釋,其中包含養(yǎng)老金的收支平衡原理、我國(guó)當(dāng)前養(yǎng)老金的籌資模式、支付模式、養(yǎng)老金運(yùn)行過程存在的問題。再介紹我國(guó)當(dāng)前養(yǎng)老金的收支現(xiàn)狀,指出當(dāng)前養(yǎng)老金收支缺口情況,然后分析其成因。第三部分介紹二孩政策對(duì)我國(guó)人口結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,先對(duì)我國(guó)人口政策的演變進(jìn)行梳理,然后對(duì)二孩政策和人口結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行分析,包括二孩政策對(duì)勞動(dòng)人口、生育率、未來人口總趨勢(shì)的影響。第四部分通過人口預(yù)測(cè)模型、養(yǎng)老金收支模型對(duì)我國(guó)未來城鎮(zhèn)職工統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支進(jìn)行趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)。第五部分是結(jié)論部分,通過本文預(yù)測(cè)研究可知在2019年城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支缺口達(dá)到最大,2031年左右城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支相抵,然后出現(xiàn)收支盈余,2031年后盈余逐年增大。最后,本文給出了應(yīng)該繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)二孩政策、完善生育保險(xiǎn)制度、推進(jìn)延遲退休等建議。
[Abstract]:Under the background of aging population, with the increasing of the number of retired workers in urban enterprises, the number of working population is decreasing, and the income and expenditure of pension account for urban workers as a whole is grim. In the face of the severe situation of the gap between the income and expenditure of pension funds in urban enterprises, the state put forward the policy of "single two-child" in 2013, but under the policy of "single two-child", the young people's fertility will and actual fertility rate have not reached expectations. In 2015, the government put forward the "comprehensive two-child" policy, which is the further improvement and deepening of the "single two-child" policy. So under the background of the aging population, when can the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy improve the gap of pension income and expenditure of urban enterprises as a whole, and how much extent of improvement will become the focus of this paper. This paper is composed of five parts, the first part is the introduction, which discusses the background and significance of this study, the purpose and content of the study, the current situation at home and abroad, the research methods and innovative points of this paper. The second part introduces the current situation of old-age insurance system and pension income and expenditure of urban workers in China, first introduces the specific evolution process of the pension system of urban workers in China, and then explains the operation of pension. It includes the principle of the balance of income and expenditure of the pension, the financing mode, the payment mode and the problems existing in the operation process of the pension in our country. This paper introduces the current situation of pension income and expenditure in China, points out the gap of current pension income and expenditure, and then analyzes its causes. The third part introduces the influence of the two-child policy on the population structure of our country. It first combs the evolution of our country's population policy, and then analyzes the relationship between the two-child policy and the population structure, including the effect of the two-child policy on the working population and the fertility rate. The impact of future population trends. The fourth part forecasts the trend of future urban workers' pension income and expenditure through population forecasting model and pension income and expenditure model. The fifth part is the conclusion part, through the forecast research of this article, we can see that the gap of the urban enterprise workers' overall pension income and expenditure reached the biggest in 2019, and the urban enterprise workers' overall pension income and expenditure was equal to each other in 2031 or so. Then there was a surplus of income and expenditure, which increased year after 2031. Finally, this paper gives some suggestions that we should continue to promote the two-child policy, improve the maternity insurance system, and push forward the delay of retirement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：C924.21;F842.67

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本文編號(hào)：2257590