【摘要】：人口結構變化可以通過直接和間接效應影響一個國家的潛在增長率。人口紅利消失將導致潛在增長率下降已經(jīng)在文獻中被證實。從第六次人口普查來看,中國正在經(jīng)歷人口結構的轉變,這與20世紀90年代初的日本非常相似。我們分別對中國1980~2030年和日本1960~2010年的潛在增長率進行了估計,通過對比發(fā)現(xiàn),與日本相似,由于人口結構變化,中國未來的潛在增長率將迅速降低。然而,日本在人口紅利消失后仍然堅持采用經(jīng)濟刺激計劃試圖維持之前的經(jīng)濟增長速度,最終導致經(jīng)濟泡沫不斷膨脹并破裂,對實體經(jīng)濟的破壞可能遠不止是"失去的十年"。中國應該借鑒日本的教訓,避免采用經(jīng)濟刺激方案,人為推高經(jīng)濟增長率。
[Abstract]:Demographic changes can affect a country's potential growth rate through direct and indirect effects. The loss of the demographic dividend will lead to a decline in the potential growth rate, which has been confirmed in the literature. According to the sixth census, China is undergoing a demographic shift, much like Japan in the early 1990s. We estimate the potential growth rate of China from 1980 to 2030 and Japan from 1960 to 2010. It is found by comparison that the potential growth rate of China will decrease rapidly because of the change of population structure. However, Japan's insistence on using the stimulus package to maintain the pace of its previous economic growth after the loss of the demographic dividend eventually led to the expansion and bursting of the bubble, and the damage to the real economy may go well beyond the "lost decade." China should learn from Japan's lessons and avoid using stimulus packages to artificially boost growth.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學院人口與勞動經(jīng)濟研究所;
【分類號】：C921

【參考文獻】

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本文編號：2179816