本文選題：流動(dòng)人口 + 生育率水平�。� 參考：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2010年碩士論文

【摘要】：眾所周知,我國(guó)在20世紀(jì)末完成了生育率的轉(zhuǎn)變,步入了低生育率水平的后生育轉(zhuǎn)變時(shí)期。許多研究表明,我國(guó)生育率的轉(zhuǎn)變主要?dú)w功于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)水平的發(fā)展和生育控制的雙重作用,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)因素不僅對(duì)生育水平產(chǎn)生直接作用,而且還通過(guò)影響生育控制因素進(jìn)而影響生育水平。與此同時(shí),隨著我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)的弱化和市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,大量的農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力從農(nóng)村流向城市,我國(guó)的流動(dòng)人口規(guī)模急劇擴(kuò)張。人口流動(dòng)作為一種社會(huì)變動(dòng)過(guò)程,不僅包括人口在地理單元間的流動(dòng),還包含了由此所導(dǎo)致的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)等諸多方面發(fā)生的變化。流動(dòng)引起人們社會(huì)地位方面的變化,終將引起其生育行為的變化。另外,人口流動(dòng)加速了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,從而加快了經(jīng)濟(jì)變量、社會(huì)變量影響生育行為的歷程。研究表明,我國(guó)流動(dòng)人口的生育率水平低于其流出地的生育率水平,對(duì)其流出地的生育率水平存在下拉作用。從我國(guó)“生育率的空間差異”的視角,研究人口流動(dòng)的特征對(duì)生育率的影響方式和程度,對(duì)當(dāng)前我國(guó)人口的合理流動(dòng)和生育率的穩(wěn)定都有著現(xiàn)實(shí)的指導(dǎo)意義。 根據(jù)現(xiàn)有的生育率理論和我國(guó)生育率轉(zhuǎn)變的實(shí)際,文章選取了5個(gè)表示流動(dòng)人口特征的因素和3個(gè)表示生育控制的因素,構(gòu)建了我國(guó)流動(dòng)人口對(duì)生育水平影響的分析框架模型。由于第五次人口普查中有關(guān)流動(dòng)人口特征的數(shù)據(jù)是基于遷入地的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),首先通過(guò)流動(dòng)人口的遷移矩陣反推出基于流出地的遷移矩陣,進(jìn)而以此為權(quán)重計(jì)算得到流出人口的人口特征。其次,由于所選取的指標(biāo)之間存在不同程度的相關(guān)性,通過(guò)因子分析“降維”把多個(gè)指標(biāo)分別綜合得到代表流動(dòng)人口因素和生育控制因素的綜合指標(biāo),并計(jì)算出各省市的指標(biāo)得分。然后,根據(jù)所構(gòu)建的分析模型,運(yùn)用多元線(xiàn)性回歸分析和多因素綜合路徑分析的思想,得到人口流動(dòng)因素和生育控制因素對(duì)生育水平的直接影響以及人口流動(dòng)因素所發(fā)揮的間接影響。結(jié)果表明,20世紀(jì)90年代末流動(dòng)人口的頻繁流動(dòng)對(duì)生育水平的下降有著顯著的影響,其影響程度大于同期的生育控制因素的影響。最后,運(yùn)用結(jié)構(gòu)方程理論,通過(guò)AMOS軟件計(jì)算出各個(gè)具體的流動(dòng)人口特征因素對(duì)生育率水平下降的影響程度。結(jié)論發(fā)現(xiàn),在諸多流動(dòng)人口特征因素中,流動(dòng)人口流動(dòng)率對(duì)生育率變動(dòng)的影響最為顯著,其次是流動(dòng)人口收入水平和流動(dòng)人口中從事第二三產(chǎn)業(yè)的比重。 最后在對(duì)結(jié)論進(jìn)行歸納之后,從人口流動(dòng)和生育政策兩方面提出了建議。
[Abstract]:As we all know, China completed the fertility transition at the end of the 20th century and entered the post-fertility transition period of low fertility level. Many studies have shown that the transformation of the fertility rate in China is mainly due to the dual functions of the development of our country's economic and social level and fertility control, and that economic and social factors not only have a direct effect on the fertility level. It also affects fertility level by influencing fertility control factors. At the same time, with the weakening of urban-rural dual structure and the development of market economy, a large number of rural surplus labor flow from rural areas to cities, and the scale of floating population in China expands rapidly. As a process of social change, population mobility includes not only the movement of population among geographical units, but also the changes in social and economic structure. Mobility causes changes in people's social status and will eventually lead to changes in their reproductive behavior. In addition, population mobility accelerates the development of social economy, thus accelerates the process of economic variables, social variables affecting fertility behavior. The results show that the fertility level of floating population in China is lower than that of the outflow area, and there is a pull-down effect on the fertility level in the outflow area. From the perspective of "spatial difference of fertility" in China, it is of practical significance to study the influence of the characteristics of population mobility on fertility, which is of practical significance to the rational flow of population and the stability of fertility in China. According to the existing fertility theory and the reality of fertility transformation in China, this paper selects five factors representing the characteristics of floating population and three factors for fertility control, and constructs an analytical framework model of the impact of floating population on fertility level in China. Because the data on the characteristics of the floating population in the fifth census are based on the survey data of the place of migration, the migration matrix based on the outflow place is first derived through the migration matrix of the floating population. Then the population characteristics of the outflow population are calculated by using this as the weight. Secondly, because of the different degree of correlation between the selected indicators, through factor analysis "dimension reduction", we can get the comprehensive indicators representing the floating population factors and fertility control factors respectively. And calculate the index score of each province and city. Then, according to the analysis model, the idea of multivariate linear regression analysis and multi-factor comprehensive path analysis is used. The direct influence of population mobility factors and fertility control factors on fertility level and the indirect influence of population mobility factors are obtained. The results show that the frequent flow of floating population in the late 1990s has a significant effect on the decline of fertility level, and its influence degree is greater than that of fertility control factors in the same period. Finally, by using structural equation theory and AMOS software, the influence of specific characteristics of floating population on the decline of fertility level is calculated. The conclusion is that among the characteristics of the floating population, the floating population mobility rate has the most significant influence on the fertility rate, followed by the income level of the floating population and the proportion of the floating population engaged in the second and third industries. Finally, the conclusion is summarized and some suggestions are put forward from two aspects: population mobility and fertility policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2010
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 陶斯文;楊風(fēng);;人口流動(dòng)對(duì)四川民族地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的影響[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2007年20期

2 胡書(shū)芝,羅憶源;社會(huì)失范:城市農(nóng)民工的游民化傾向——武漢市農(nóng)民工游民化問(wèn)題調(diào)查[J];城市問(wèn)題;2001年02期

3 彭良軍;;流動(dòng)人口生育問(wèn)題研究綜述[J];黑河學(xué)刊;2006年05期

4 周祖根,朱慈;上海流動(dòng)人口狀況和特點(diǎn)[J];上海綜合經(jīng)濟(jì);1994年07期

5 楊云彥,徐映梅,向書(shū)堅(jiān);就業(yè)替代與勞動(dòng)力流動(dòng):一個(gè)新的分析框架[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2003年08期

6 周君玉;流動(dòng)人口對(duì)農(nóng)村社會(huì)發(fā)展的影響[J];南方人口;2000年03期

7 楊子慧;論流動(dòng)人口的生育行為[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);1991年03期

8 周皓;低生育率條件下的中國(guó)人口控制[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);2000年05期

9 陳友華,陸建新;中國(guó)生育率的地區(qū)差異及其政策選擇[J];人口與經(jīng)濟(jì);2003年04期

10 周祖根;人口遷移流動(dòng)與生育[J];人口學(xué)刊;1993年05期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 周江濤;1990年代中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)因素對(duì)生育水平的影響研究[D];華東師范大學(xué);2008年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 馬培津;外出務(wù)工對(duì)農(nóng)民婚育行為的影響[D];安徽大學(xué);2006年

2 雷敏;我國(guó)人口生育率影響因素的統(tǒng)計(jì)研究[D];天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號(hào)：1975546