本文選題：人口分布 + 人口密度�。� 參考：《吉林大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國有13多億人口，主要分布在東南沿海省份，這種情況是自然、社會和經(jīng)濟等因素長期作用的結(jié)果。隨著各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和大規(guī)模人口的流動，截止到2010年，我國的人口分布狀態(tài)仍然是東部地區(qū)人口占全國總?cè)丝诒戎刈畲�，其次是中部和西部地區(qū)。我國人口分布還是呈現(xiàn)著穩(wěn)定性和不平衡性的特點，目前來說人口分布的格局還是比較合理的。影響我國人口分布的因素是哪些，影響有多大，研究我國的人口分布及其影響因素，對于掌握我國人口分布格局、人口走勢，從而制定影響人口分布的有關政策，都具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文以我國31個省市區(qū)為研究單元，結(jié)合1982年中國統(tǒng)計年鑒、1991年中國統(tǒng)計年鑒、2000年第五次全國人口普查資料和2011年中國統(tǒng)計年鑒資料，總結(jié)了從民國初期到2010年我國的人口分布狀況。并運用SPSS統(tǒng)計軟件中的單因素相關分析、主成分分析、多元線性回歸分析方法，以人口密度為反映人口分布的因變量，以自然、社會和經(jīng)濟因素中共31個指標為自變量，對影響人口分布的因素進行定量分析，其中單因素相關分析主要觀察各因素與人口密度的相關系數(shù)的大小，從而判斷哪類因素與人口分布的關系最大。主成分分析主要是通過降維的方式，將原本31個指標降為5個因子，既方便計算又避免了由于指標之間存在高度的共線性而給結(jié)果帶來的影響。采用多元線性回歸主要是通過計算得到相關指標與人口密度的回歸方程，分析主要指標對人口密度影響的大小。 分析結(jié)果表明，在自然因素、社會因素和經(jīng)濟因素中，，經(jīng)濟規(guī)模和分配、人均占有量和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、文化生活質(zhì)量、勞動參與情況、農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平對人口密度有較大的影響，特別是人均地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值和城鎮(zhèn)單位就業(yè)人員平均工資對人口密度的正向影響最大。最后，總結(jié)以上分析結(jié)果，預測未來隨著各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的不斷發(fā)展，特別是東北地區(qū)老工業(yè)基地的崛起和西部地區(qū)大開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略各項目的投產(chǎn)，會使當?shù)亟?jīng)濟實力一躍而起，吸納人口的數(shù)量也會大幅度的增加，屆時我國的人口分布格局會有比較大的改觀。
[Abstract]:There are more than 1.3 billion people in China, mainly distributed in the southeast coastal provinces. This situation is the result of the long-term action of natural, social and economic factors. With the development of regional economy and large-scale population flow, by 2010, the distribution of population in China is still the largest proportion of the population in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. China's population distribution still presents the characteristics of stability and imbalance, the pattern of population distribution is reasonable. What are the factors that affect the population distribution in our country and how big the impact is? to study the population distribution in China and its influencing factors, to grasp the pattern and trend of population distribution in our country, and to formulate relevant policies that affect the population distribution, Are of great practical significance. In this paper, 31 provinces and municipalities in China are taken as the research units, combining the data of the 1982 China Statistical Yearbook, the 1991 China Statistical Yearbook, the 2000 Fifth National population Census and the 2011 China Statistical Yearbook. This paper summarizes the population distribution from the beginning of the Republic of China to 2010. Using the single factor correlation analysis, principal component analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis method of SPSS statistical software, taking population density as dependent variable to reflect population distribution, taking 31 indexes of natural, social and economic factors as independent variables. The factors influencing the population distribution were analyzed quantitatively. The single factor correlation analysis mainly observed the correlation coefficient between each factor and the population density, so as to determine which factors had the greatest relationship with the population distribution. Principal component analysis (PCA) reduces the original 31 indexes to 5 factors by dimensionality reduction, which is not only easy to calculate but also avoids the influence on the results due to the existence of a high degree of collinearity among the indicators. The regression equation of correlation index and population density is obtained by multivariate linear regression, and the influence of main index on population density is analyzed. The results show that, among the natural, social and economic factors, economic scale and distribution, per capita possession and industrial structure, quality of cultural life, labor participation, and the level of agricultural development have great influence on population density. In particular, the per capita regional GDP and the average wage per person employed in urban areas have the greatest positive impact on population density. Finally, by summing up the above analysis results, it is predicted that with the continuous development of the regional economy in the future, especially the rise of the old industrial base in the Northeast region and the production of various projects in the strategy of the great development of the western region, the local economic strength will spring up in a leap forward. The number of absorbed population will also increase by a large margin, and the pattern of population distribution in China will be greatly improved.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：C922

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 黃福偉;山東省人口空間分布及合理性研究[D];山東師范大學;2013年

本文編號：1792005