本文選題：低生育水平 + 勞動(dòng)力供給��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)是一個(gè)人口大國(guó),人口數(shù)量和人口結(jié)構(gòu)問(wèn)題一直困擾著我們。自上個(gè)世紀(jì)70年代計(jì)劃生育政策實(shí)施以來(lái),生育水平已經(jīng)下降到更替水平以下,但是勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)又出現(xiàn)了“民工潮”、“民工荒”、“農(nóng)民工大返鄉(xiāng)”等問(wèn)題,未來(lái)勞動(dòng)力供求將如何演變受到人們深刻的關(guān)注。人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)等許多因素都會(huì)影響勞動(dòng)力供給,其中人口因素是最基本方面,人口中勞動(dòng)年齡人口又是潛在勞動(dòng)力的基礎(chǔ)部分。因此本文首先對(duì)生育水平現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行描述,并指出生育水平的降低、總?cè)丝跀?shù)量減少以后出現(xiàn)的一些問(wèn)題,其次對(duì)勞動(dòng)力供給現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,又對(duì)不同生育率方案下未來(lái)40年內(nèi)中國(guó)勞動(dòng)力供給的變化趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),用數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)說(shuō)明問(wèn)題并提出應(yīng)對(duì)措施,最后得出結(jié)論,計(jì)劃生育是我們長(zhǎng)期堅(jiān)持的基本國(guó)策,今后的主要任務(wù)是穩(wěn)定適度低生育水平的前提下不斷提高出生人口素質(zhì),為基本實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化和可持續(xù)發(fā)展創(chuàng)造良好的人口環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:China is a large population, population and population structure has been puzzling us.Since the implementation of the family planning policy in the 1970s, the fertility level has fallen below the replacement level. However, problems have emerged in the labor market such as "migrant workers' tide", "migrant workers shortage", "migrant workers returning home" and so on.How the labor supply and demand will evolve in the future will be deeply concerned by people.Many factors, such as population, economy, society and so on, will affect the supply of labor force, among which the population factor is the most basic aspect, and the working-age population is the basic part of the potential labor force.Therefore, this paper first describes the present situation of the fertility level, and points out some problems after the reduction of the fertility level and the decrease of the total population, and then analyzes the present situation of labor supply.It also predicts the changing trend of China's labor supply in the next 40 years under different fertility plans, uses data to explain the problem and puts forward countermeasures. Finally, it concludes that family planning is the basic national policy that we have adhered to for a long time.The main task in the future is to improve the quality of the birth population on the premise of stable and moderate low fertility level and to create a good population environment for the basic realization of modernization and sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C924.24;F249.21

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