本文關鍵詞： 人口老齡化 消費結構 享受型消費 老齡產業(yè)　出處：《安徽財經大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：江蘇省作為經濟和人口大省,較早的在1986年就邁入了人口老齡化社會,比全國整整提前13年,其老齡化也正處于不斷加速階段。盡管“未富先老”的基本國情對社會經濟發(fā)展產生了一些消極影響,但老年人口規(guī)模的擴大也可以提供積極的外部效應。隨著生活質量的改善,老年群體的消費能力和消費水平都有所提高,其消費需求呈現(xiàn)不斷上漲的趨勢。由于老年人口的消費特征顯著區(qū)別于其他年齡段人口,因而從消費結構出發(fā),研究老年人口在不同消費品上的表現(xiàn),對于滿足老年人的特殊需求,開拓老年市場,發(fā)展老齡產業(yè)以及帶動國民經濟的可持續(xù)發(fā)展都有重要的指導和促進作用。 本文首先對江蘇省歷次人口普查老齡化的變動過程進行全面分析,并總結了其在老齡化過程中所呈現(xiàn)出的變化特征,還運用國際人口預測軟件PADIS-INT對江蘇省老年人口的發(fā)展趨勢進行預測。其次,從靜態(tài)和動態(tài)兩方面分析江蘇省居民消費結構的現(xiàn)狀特征及變動趨勢,并結合相關統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)對江蘇省老年人消費總需求變動趨勢進行量化分析。接著,運用灰色關聯(lián)度方法研究江蘇省城鄉(xiāng)老年人口與消費結構八大項的具體關系,用數(shù)值來量化反映老年人口與各項消費品的關聯(lián)程度。最后,根據(jù)上述理論研究和實證分析的結果,從政府和企業(yè)兩個層面,對于如何更好的開發(fā)老年消費市場、應對人口老齡化分別給出相應的對策建議。 根據(jù)上述研究得出的主要結論有：(1)江蘇省老齡化程度比較高,增速快,城鄉(xiāng)差異大,高齡化凸顯。據(jù)預測,2030-2050年是江蘇省老年人口增長最迅速的時期。截至2050年,65歲及其以上人口數(shù)將增加到2013萬人,達到總人口數(shù)的31%。(2)江蘇省城鄉(xiāng)居民食品衣著項消費支出不斷減少,醫(yī)療保健、交通通訊、居住及文娛服務等支出比重不斷上升,消費結構逐步走向合理化。老年群體生活消費各項支出都在上漲,其消費需求類型逐漸從生存型轉向享樂型。(3)定量分析結果顯示,江蘇省老年人口在教育文化娛樂服務、交通和通訊及醫(yī)療保健需求方面的消費支出有所增加,而在食品、家庭設備及雜項上的消費支出有所下降。針對研究結論給出的政策建議有：政府應加強宏觀方面的調控和指導,健全社會養(yǎng)老服務體系,并加強對老齡產業(yè)的扶持引導；企業(yè)應加強市場調研,細分老年消費需求,創(chuàng)新老年產品和服務,開拓營銷渠道,打造核心老齡產業(yè),完善老齡產業(yè)鏈條。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province, as an economic and populous province, stepped into an aging society in 1986, 13 years earlier than the whole country. Its ageing is also at an accelerating stage. Although the basic national conditions of "ageing before becoming rich" have had some negative effects on social and economic development, However, the expansion of the elderly population can also provide positive externalities. With the improvement of the quality of life, the consumption capacity and consumption level of the elderly population have increased. Since the consumption characteristics of the elderly population are significantly different from those of other age groups, the consumption structure of the elderly population is studied in terms of the performance of the elderly population on different consumer goods. It plays an important guiding and promoting role in meeting the special needs of the elderly, opening up the market for the elderly, developing the industry of the aged and driving the sustainable development of the national economy. In this paper, the changing process of aging in the past censuses of Jiangsu Province is analyzed, and the characteristics of the aging process are summarized. The development trend of the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is predicted by using the international population prediction software PADIS-INT. Secondly, the characteristics and changing trend of the consumption structure of the residents in Jiangsu Province are analyzed from static and dynamic aspects. Combined with the relevant statistical data, the change trend of total consumption demand of the elderly in Jiangsu Province is analyzed quantitatively. Then, the specific relationship between the elderly population in urban and rural areas of Jiangsu Province and the eight major items of consumption structure is studied by using the method of grey correlation degree. Finally, according to the above theoretical research and empirical analysis results, from the government and enterprise level, how to better develop the elderly consumer market, The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions should be given respectively for the aging of the population. According to the above study, the main conclusions are: (1) Jiangsu Province has a relatively high degree of aging, a rapid growth rate, and a big difference between urban and rural areas. The aging age is prominent. It is predicted that 2030-2050 will be the fastest growing period for the elderly population in Jiangsu Province. By 2050, the number of the population aged 65 and over will increase to 20.13 million. The consumption expenditure on food and clothing items for urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province has been decreasing, and the proportion of medical care, transportation, communications, housing and recreational services has been increasing. The consumption structure is gradually being rationalized. All kinds of expenditure of the elderly group's living consumption are on the rise, and the types of consumption demand are gradually changing from the survival type to the hedonic type. The results of quantitative analysis show that the elderly population in Jiangsu Province is providing educational, cultural and recreational services. Consumer spending on transport and communications and health care needs has increased, while food, The government should strengthen the macro-control and guidance, perfect the social old-age service system, and strengthen the support and guidance to the aging industry; Enterprises should strengthen market research, subdivide the consumption demand of the elderly, innovate the products and services for the elderly, open up marketing channels, create the core industry for the aged, and perfect the chain of the industry for the aged.
【學位授予單位】：安徽財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1;C924.2

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