和諧社會指數(shù)的構建及應用研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-05-18 20:43
【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)生了翻天覆地的變化,各項建設所取得的成就舉世矚目。與此同時,社會和環(huán)境面臨的壓力、矛盾及問題逐漸顯現(xiàn),并可能變得更為復雜、更為突出。在此背景下,和諧社會概念應運而生,反映了中國共產(chǎn)黨對社會主義事業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)律的新認識,以及對執(zhí)政規(guī)律、能力、方略和方式的新理解,為實現(xiàn)社會主義現(xiàn)代化目標提供了新的指導方針。通過構建和諧社會指數(shù)并對和諧社會進行實證研究,有助于各級政府和人民群眾改變單純追求國內生產(chǎn)總值的觀念,以便落實好中共十八屆三中全會的決定中“完善發(fā)展成果考核評價體系,糾正單純以經(jīng)濟增長速度評定政績的偏向”的要求；同時,還可全面反映各地歷年和諧社會建設的客觀、動態(tài)進程,以利于各地從宏觀上、空間上和時間上更科學地規(guī)劃促進與和諧社會相關的一系列建設。 據(jù)此,本文以和諧社會內涵、系統(tǒng)構成及作用機制、綜合評價等理論為基礎,構建了和諧社會綜合評價體系框架。通過體系檢驗、結果測算及結論分析,從特征及影響因素兩方面對全國及各省和諧社會建設情況進行了深入研究,并設計開發(fā)了全國首個和諧社會綜合評價系統(tǒng)。全文主要包括： 第一,闡明了和諧社會評價的理論基礎。在系統(tǒng)梳理國內外學者對社會發(fā)展評價、和諧社會綜合評價等相關研究基礎上,從和諧社會內涵出發(fā),闡述和諧社會基本特征及系統(tǒng)構成。 第二,構建了基于PSR框架的和諧社會評價體系。分析表明,本研究構建的評價體系無論從構建思路、邏輯層次還是指標選取方面都有所改善,既保證了整體與局部的結構關系,又不失前因后果等邏輯聯(lián)系。指標選取方面更是采用一配對的方式,以保證各維度緊密相連,有助于從源頭上提高測算結果的科學性與有效性。 第三,測算了和諧社會指數(shù),并剖析了全國及各省和諧社會指數(shù)特征。根據(jù)構建的和諧社會評價指標體系,通過指標篩選、體系檢驗、指標賦權等步驟,測算了2007—2012年全國及各省和諧社會分指數(shù)和總指數(shù)結果。首先,對指數(shù)特征進行定義,并選定具體分類方法,對和諧社會分指數(shù)和總指數(shù)進行了描述性特征分析,結果表明：和諧社會分指數(shù)差異性很大,歷年各省呈現(xiàn)不同特征,并具有“東部優(yōu)于西部,北方低于南方”的規(guī)律。其次,利用Logistic模型和多指標面板數(shù)據(jù)聚類方法對和諧社會指數(shù)進行時空特征分析,結果表明：各省進入和諧社會不同發(fā)展階段的時間點有所差異,但各階段經(jīng)歷周期大致相同。省域聚類數(shù)量與傳統(tǒng)地理區(qū)位劃分數(shù)目一樣,但各類別包含省份相差甚遠。第1類僅包含有北京和上海兩個城市。第3類所包含的省市基本屬于中部省市,但包括了東部地區(qū)的廣東省。此外,第4類包含的省市主要是西部地區(qū)和東北地區(qū)。 第四,分析了和諧社會指數(shù)的影響因素。通過分析和諧社會影響因素來源,對其進行分類,并利用灰色關聯(lián)模型、Moran's Ⅰ指數(shù)和納入了空間效應的空間滯后模型與空間誤差模型分別分析了時間、空間及時空混合影響因素。結果表明：經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平和社會貧富差距是影響最大的時間動態(tài)因素,而地理位置是最重要的空間結構影響因素。此外,當期GDP增長率、就業(yè)人員平均勞動報酬、城鄉(xiāng)收入差距和城鄉(xiāng)消費支出比對和諧社會指數(shù)在省域之間有顯著的正向空間擴散(溢出)效應和較強的空間依賴作用。 第五,設計開發(fā)了十分實用、便捷的“和諧社會綜合評價系統(tǒng)”軟件。該評價系統(tǒng)主要從維度選擇、數(shù)據(jù)導入與測算、結果分析3個方面進行編程和開發(fā)。此外,從指數(shù)發(fā)布、報告出版及數(shù)據(jù)庫搭建3方面設計出和諧社會指數(shù)的應用實施方案,使和諧社會綜合評價的理論落地,操作性更強。 第六,構建了和諧社會總系統(tǒng)及子系統(tǒng)演化模擬模型,通過數(shù)值擬合及政策仿真模擬和諧社會演化過程,并據(jù)此提出政策建議。從經(jīng)濟、社會和環(huán)境3個系統(tǒng)構建和諧社會模擬模型。各系統(tǒng)均能較好地通過模型誤差檢驗和靈敏度分析。同時,將3個系統(tǒng)包含的政策重組為10類并進行單獨模擬。 最后,提出了構建和諧社會的政策建議：一是各級政府應通過縮小城鄉(xiāng)居民收入差距、擴大就業(yè)、加強生態(tài)環(huán)境保護及加大反腐力度,從源頭紓解和諧社會建設壓力；二是各級政府應通過優(yōu)化居民商品住宅供給結構、促進各地區(qū)協(xié)調發(fā)展、保持國民經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長及和諧社會建設的良好態(tài)勢；三是各級政府應通過加強社會安全監(jiān)督、完善社會保障制度與和諧社會評價體系,強化和諧社會建設保障措施,以期早日實現(xiàn)和諧社會,共圓中國夢。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has changed over and over, and the achievements of the various construction have attracted worldwide attention. At the same time, the pressures, contradictions and problems faced by society and the environment are becoming more complex and more prominent. In this context, the concept of the harmonious society comes into being, which reflects the new understanding of the Chinese Communist Party's law on the development of the socialist cause, and the new understanding of the law, ability, strategy and means of the governing law, and provides new guidelines for the realization of the socialist modernization goal. through the construction of the harmonious society index and the empirical study of the harmonious society, the government and the people at all levels can change the concept of the pure pursuit of the gross domestic product so as to implement the "To improve the evaluation system of the development results and to correct the bias of the economic growth rate in the assessment of the performance" 's requirements in the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China; and meanwhile, The objective and dynamic process of building a harmonious society in all parts of the world can be reflected in a comprehensive way, so that a series of construction related to the harmonious society can be more scientifically planned and promoted from the macroscopic, spatial and temporal aspects. Based on the theory of the connotation of the harmonious society, the composition of the system and the mechanism of action, the comprehensive evaluation and so on, the framework of the comprehensive evaluation system of the harmonious society is constructed. On the basis of the system test, the result measurement and the conclusion analysis, the construction of the harmonious society in the whole country and the provinces is deeply studied from the characteristics and the influence factors, and the first comprehensive evaluation system of the first harmonious society in the whole country has been designed and developed. A. The full text of the main package The first part expounds the theory of the evaluation of the harmonious society On the basis of the relevant research, such as the evaluation of the social development and the comprehensive evaluation of the harmonious society at home and abroad, the basic characteristics and system of the harmonious society are set out from the connotation of the harmonious society The second, the construction of the harmonious society based on the PSR framework The analysis shows that the evaluation system constructed by the present study has improved both from the construction idea, the logic level and the index selection. The index selection is a matching way to ensure that each dimension is closely connected, which helps to improve the science of the measurement result from the source. Third, the index of the harmonious society is measured, and the whole country and the provinces and the provinces are also analyzed. According to the construction of the index system of the harmonious society, through the steps of index selection, system inspection, and index empowerment, the harmonious society of the whole country and the provinces in the period of 2007-2012 is calculated and calculated. First, the index character is defined, and the specific classification method is selected. The index and the general index of the harmonious society are analyzed in a descriptive way. The results show that the difference of the social index of the harmonious society is very large, the provinces in the calendar year have different characteristics, and have the "The last is the best to the best and the north is the" software. The evaluation system is mainly selected from the dimension, data import and calculation, and the result analysis In addition, the implementation of the harmonious society index is designed from the aspects of index release, report publishing and database building, so as to make the harmonious society comprehensive evaluation The theory of a harmonious society and the simulation model of the subsystem evolution are constructed, and a harmonious society is simulated by means of numerical fitting and policy simulation. A process of mainstreaming and policy recommendations, from economic, social and environmental aspects A model of building a harmonious society is constructed by a system. All the systems can communicate well. Over-model error checking and sensitivity analysis. At the same time, the policies included in the 3 systems Finally, it puts forward the policy suggestion to construct the harmonious society: First, the governments at all levels should reduce the income gap between the urban and rural residents, expand the employment, strengthen the ecological environment protection and increase the anti-corruption power Second, the governments at all levels should promote the coordinated development of various regions through the optimization of the supply structure of the residential commodity houses, maintain the sustained growth of the national economy and the good situation of the construction of the harmonious society; The government at all levels should strengthen the social security supervision, improve the social security system and the evaluation system of the harmonious society, and strengthen the construction and guarantee measures of the harmonious society.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：D61
本文編號：2480322
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, China's economy has changed over and over, and the achievements of the various construction have attracted worldwide attention. At the same time, the pressures, contradictions and problems faced by society and the environment are becoming more complex and more prominent. In this context, the concept of the harmonious society comes into being, which reflects the new understanding of the Chinese Communist Party's law on the development of the socialist cause, and the new understanding of the law, ability, strategy and means of the governing law, and provides new guidelines for the realization of the socialist modernization goal. through the construction of the harmonious society index and the empirical study of the harmonious society, the government and the people at all levels can change the concept of the pure pursuit of the gross domestic product so as to implement the "To improve the evaluation system of the development results and to correct the bias of the economic growth rate in the assessment of the performance" 's requirements in the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China; and meanwhile, The objective and dynamic process of building a harmonious society in all parts of the world can be reflected in a comprehensive way, so that a series of construction related to the harmonious society can be more scientifically planned and promoted from the macroscopic, spatial and temporal aspects. Based on the theory of the connotation of the harmonious society, the composition of the system and the mechanism of action, the comprehensive evaluation and so on, the framework of the comprehensive evaluation system of the harmonious society is constructed. On the basis of the system test, the result measurement and the conclusion analysis, the construction of the harmonious society in the whole country and the provinces is deeply studied from the characteristics and the influence factors, and the first comprehensive evaluation system of the first harmonious society in the whole country has been designed and developed. A. The full text of the main package The first part expounds the theory of the evaluation of the harmonious society On the basis of the relevant research, such as the evaluation of the social development and the comprehensive evaluation of the harmonious society at home and abroad, the basic characteristics and system of the harmonious society are set out from the connotation of the harmonious society The second, the construction of the harmonious society based on the PSR framework The analysis shows that the evaluation system constructed by the present study has improved both from the construction idea, the logic level and the index selection. The index selection is a matching way to ensure that each dimension is closely connected, which helps to improve the science of the measurement result from the source. Third, the index of the harmonious society is measured, and the whole country and the provinces and the provinces are also analyzed. According to the construction of the index system of the harmonious society, through the steps of index selection, system inspection, and index empowerment, the harmonious society of the whole country and the provinces in the period of 2007-2012 is calculated and calculated. First, the index character is defined, and the specific classification method is selected. The index and the general index of the harmonious society are analyzed in a descriptive way. The results show that the difference of the social index of the harmonious society is very large, the provinces in the calendar year have different characteristics, and have the "The last is the best to the best and the north is the" software. The evaluation system is mainly selected from the dimension, data import and calculation, and the result analysis In addition, the implementation of the harmonious society index is designed from the aspects of index release, report publishing and database building, so as to make the harmonious society comprehensive evaluation The theory of a harmonious society and the simulation model of the subsystem evolution are constructed, and a harmonious society is simulated by means of numerical fitting and policy simulation. A process of mainstreaming and policy recommendations, from economic, social and environmental aspects A model of building a harmonious society is constructed by a system. All the systems can communicate well. Over-model error checking and sensitivity analysis. At the same time, the policies included in the 3 systems Finally, it puts forward the policy suggestion to construct the harmonious society: First, the governments at all levels should reduce the income gap between the urban and rural residents, expand the employment, strengthen the ecological environment protection and increase the anti-corruption power Second, the governments at all levels should promote the coordinated development of various regions through the optimization of the supply structure of the residential commodity houses, maintain the sustained growth of the national economy and the good situation of the construction of the harmonious society; The government at all levels should strengthen the social security supervision, improve the social security system and the evaluation system of the harmonious society, and strengthen the construction and guarantee measures of the harmonious society.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：D61
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