緬甸軍政府民主轉(zhuǎn)型原因研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-12 09:09
【摘要】：二十世紀(jì)中后期世界政治發(fā)展的顯著特征是,全球30多個(gè)國(guó)家開(kāi)始由極權(quán)或威權(quán)向民主轉(zhuǎn)變,即亨廷頓描述的第三波。與我國(guó)西南邊陲接壤的緬甸也不例外,出現(xiàn)多起要求民主化、反對(duì)軍政府的抗議示威。然而并沒(méi)有改變現(xiàn)狀,而是軍隊(duì)出面平息事態(tài)建立了新的軍政府。2008年制訂了新的憲法,2010年舉行最大規(guī)模的多黨選舉,其后軍政府向吳登盛為總統(tǒng)的新政府移交權(quán)力,開(kāi)啟了新政治經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)改革。2015年,全國(guó)民主聯(lián)盟的吳丁覺(jué)贏得了新憲法施行后第一次大選。2016年,作為50多年軍人統(tǒng)治后的第一位民選總統(tǒng),吳丁覺(jué)上臺(tái)執(zhí)政,這是緬甸漫長(zhǎng)民主之路的標(biāo)志性一步。回首獨(dú)立之后的緬甸政治發(fā)展史,民主之路可謂漫長(zhǎng)曲折。短暫的議會(huì)民主草草收尾,而后的歷史由新舊兩個(gè)軍政府書(shū)寫(xiě)。緬甸這個(gè)發(fā)展中的小國(guó)能最終走到這一步也是實(shí)屬不易。由此引人深思,緬甸經(jīng)由軍政府統(tǒng)治半個(gè)多世紀(jì)緣何還能開(kāi)啟民主轉(zhuǎn)型之路并最終完成?學(xué)界對(duì)此已有一定的研究。梳理已有的文獻(xiàn)資料,國(guó)內(nèi)外的研究要么強(qiáng)調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)型的內(nèi)部原因,要么強(qiáng)調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)型的外部干預(yù),均是從不同側(cè)面的描述和分析來(lái)探討其轉(zhuǎn)型的原因。本人嘗試在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)之上,引入政治機(jī)遇結(jié)構(gòu)理論;從各個(gè)要素出發(fā)關(guān)照緬甸政治社會(huì)的現(xiàn)實(shí)因素,從而總結(jié)出緬甸軍政府的民主轉(zhuǎn)型在于其特殊的政治機(jī)遇結(jié)構(gòu)因素。政權(quán)內(nèi)外多個(gè)中心、體制架構(gòu)有限封閉、政治結(jié)盟的不穩(wěn)定、挑戰(zhàn)者獲得支持者以及軍政府的適時(shí)推進(jìn)。各政治機(jī)遇的要素共同作用于緬甸軍政府,民主轉(zhuǎn)型才能重新開(kāi)啟并逐步推進(jìn)。論文分為五大部分。第一部分是導(dǎo)論:通過(guò)梳理國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)資料,作為開(kāi)展研究的理論前提,并對(duì)軍政府與威權(quán)體制、民主化與民主轉(zhuǎn)型和政治機(jī)遇結(jié)構(gòu)理論的概念進(jìn)行界定。第二部分概述了緬甸軍政府民主轉(zhuǎn)型之前的歷史背景,并對(duì)緬甸獨(dú)立后的歷史分期進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)要分析。第三部分主要是描述轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中的政治力量,概述了軍人集團(tuán)、民主勢(shì)力和少數(shù)民族武裝組織三大政治力量。第四部分主要闡述了軍政府轉(zhuǎn)型后的政治形勢(shì):面臨威權(quán)政體的遺留問(wèn)題,文官政府必須進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革謀求社會(huì)發(fā)展,以此應(yīng)對(duì)民主鞏固期的種種挑戰(zhàn)。第五部分是論文的結(jié)尾,在綜合分析緬甸軍政府轉(zhuǎn)型前的背景、轉(zhuǎn)型中的博弈和轉(zhuǎn)型后的形勢(shì)基礎(chǔ)上,得出緬甸軍政府民主轉(zhuǎn)型原因在于政治機(jī)遇機(jī)構(gòu)因素,并總結(jié)了轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程的特點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:The remarkable characteristic of the world political development in the middle and late twentieth century is that more than 30 countries in the world began to change from totalitarianism or authoritarianism to democracy, which is the third wave described by Huntington. Myanmar, which borders on the southwest border of China, is no exception. There have been many protests against the junta. But instead of changing the status quo, the military came forward to calm the situation and set up a new military junta. A new constitution was enacted in 2008, the largest multi-party election was held in 2010, and the junta handed over power to the new government of President Thein Sein. The new political, economic and social reforms have been launched. In 2015, Wu Dinghue of the National League for Democracy won the first general election since the implementation of the new Constitution. In 2016, as the first elected president after more than 50 years of military rule, Wu came to power. This is a landmark step on Myanmar's long road to democracy. Looking back on the history of Myanmar's political development after independence, the road to democracy can be described as long and tortuous. A brief parliamentary democracy was curtailed, and the history was written by the old and the new military junta. It is not easy for a small developing country to finally get there. So it makes people wonder why Myanmar has been ruled by a military government for more than half a century so that it can open the way to democratic transformation and finally complete it. There has been some research on this in academic circles. Combing the existing literature, domestic and foreign studies either emphasize the internal reasons of the transition, or emphasize the external intervention of the transition, all from different aspects of the description and analysis to explore the reasons for its transformation. On the basis of previous studies, I try to introduce the theory of political opportunity structure, and consider the realistic factors of Myanmar political society from each factor, and conclude that the democratic transformation of Myanmar military government lies in its special political opportunity structure factor. Many centers inside and outside the regime, limited institutional structure, unstable political alliance, supporters of challengers and timely advance of the junta. The elements of political opportunity work together in Burma's military junta before democratic transition can be restarted and gradually pushed forward. The paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction: by combing the domestic and foreign literature, as the theoretical premise of the research, and defining the concepts of military government and authoritarian system, democratization and democratic transformation and political opportunity structure theory. The second part summarizes the historical background of Burma's military government before the democratic transition, and briefly analyzes the historical stages after Myanmar's independence. The third part mainly describes the political forces in the process of transformation, and outlines the three political forces: the military group, the democratic forces and the armed groups of ethnic minorities. The fourth part mainly expounds the political situation after the military junta's transformation: in the face of the legacy of the authoritarian regime, the civil government must carry out economic reform and seek social development in order to meet the challenges in the period of consolidation of democracy. The fifth part is the end of the paper, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the background before the transition of the military junta in Myanmar, the game in the transition and the situation after the transition, it is concluded that the reason for the democratic transition of the military junta of Myanmar lies in the political opportunity institutional factor. The characteristics of the transition process are summarized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D733.7
，
本文編號(hào)：2265563
[Abstract]:The remarkable characteristic of the world political development in the middle and late twentieth century is that more than 30 countries in the world began to change from totalitarianism or authoritarianism to democracy, which is the third wave described by Huntington. Myanmar, which borders on the southwest border of China, is no exception. There have been many protests against the junta. But instead of changing the status quo, the military came forward to calm the situation and set up a new military junta. A new constitution was enacted in 2008, the largest multi-party election was held in 2010, and the junta handed over power to the new government of President Thein Sein. The new political, economic and social reforms have been launched. In 2015, Wu Dinghue of the National League for Democracy won the first general election since the implementation of the new Constitution. In 2016, as the first elected president after more than 50 years of military rule, Wu came to power. This is a landmark step on Myanmar's long road to democracy. Looking back on the history of Myanmar's political development after independence, the road to democracy can be described as long and tortuous. A brief parliamentary democracy was curtailed, and the history was written by the old and the new military junta. It is not easy for a small developing country to finally get there. So it makes people wonder why Myanmar has been ruled by a military government for more than half a century so that it can open the way to democratic transformation and finally complete it. There has been some research on this in academic circles. Combing the existing literature, domestic and foreign studies either emphasize the internal reasons of the transition, or emphasize the external intervention of the transition, all from different aspects of the description and analysis to explore the reasons for its transformation. On the basis of previous studies, I try to introduce the theory of political opportunity structure, and consider the realistic factors of Myanmar political society from each factor, and conclude that the democratic transformation of Myanmar military government lies in its special political opportunity structure factor. Many centers inside and outside the regime, limited institutional structure, unstable political alliance, supporters of challengers and timely advance of the junta. The elements of political opportunity work together in Burma's military junta before democratic transition can be restarted and gradually pushed forward. The paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction: by combing the domestic and foreign literature, as the theoretical premise of the research, and defining the concepts of military government and authoritarian system, democratization and democratic transformation and political opportunity structure theory. The second part summarizes the historical background of Burma's military government before the democratic transition, and briefly analyzes the historical stages after Myanmar's independence. The third part mainly describes the political forces in the process of transformation, and outlines the three political forces: the military group, the democratic forces and the armed groups of ethnic minorities. The fourth part mainly expounds the political situation after the military junta's transformation: in the face of the legacy of the authoritarian regime, the civil government must carry out economic reform and seek social development in order to meet the challenges in the period of consolidation of democracy. The fifth part is the end of the paper, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of the background before the transition of the military junta in Myanmar, the game in the transition and the situation after the transition, it is concluded that the reason for the democratic transition of the military junta of Myanmar lies in the political opportunity institutional factor. The characteristics of the transition process are summarized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D733.7
，
本文編號(hào)：2265563
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