【摘要】：隨著人口老齡化的加劇,養(yǎng)老問題的重要性日益凸顯,將會(huì)有越來越多的老年人入住到養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)中,這就導(dǎo)致養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)人力資源的需求大大增加。但由于工資待遇低、工作量大及社會(huì)觀念等原因,養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)的人力資源供給遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足,這種供需矛盾嚴(yán)重影響我國(guó)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)的發(fā)展,因此,對(duì)我國(guó)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)進(jìn)行人力資源的供給與需求研究,對(duì)促進(jìn)我國(guó)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要作用。本文依據(jù)人力資源激勵(lì)-保健理論、期望理論及馬斯洛需求理論等相關(guān)理論,采用文獻(xiàn)研究法、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法和系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法進(jìn)行研究。首先,運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究法,搜集整理養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)及人力資源領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)研究成果,并總結(jié)我國(guó)目前養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)人力資源現(xiàn)狀;其次,運(yùn)用SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件對(duì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)供給和需求兩方面的因素進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析及參數(shù)估計(jì);最后,運(yùn)用VENSIM系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)軟件通過因果關(guān)系圖、流圖和結(jié)構(gòu)方程的建立對(duì)2013-2045年養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)人力資源的供給和需求進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)分析。通過系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的構(gòu)建仿真,得出我國(guó)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)人力資源供需比未來變化趨勢(shì):先增加后減小,最大值0.9265。然后對(duì)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)入住比例、服務(wù)人員配置比例、工資增長(zhǎng)率、養(yǎng)老服務(wù)財(cái)政支出比例等參數(shù)進(jìn)行情景分析和敏感度分析,研究這些因素對(duì)人力資源供需的影響作用。最后根據(jù)分析結(jié)果提出增加政府財(cái)政投入、構(gòu)建專業(yè)醫(yī)護(hù)人才培養(yǎng)體系、開發(fā)志愿者人力資源等對(duì)策建議。本研究主要有兩點(diǎn)創(chuàng)新:一是內(nèi)容的創(chuàng)新,即對(duì)我國(guó)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)人力資源體系進(jìn)行供給和需求兩方面多因素研究;二是方法的創(chuàng)新,即運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法對(duì)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)人力資源供需體系進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)仿真,測(cè)算供需平衡狀態(tài)下的人力資源供給和需求,并對(duì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的關(guān)鍵參數(shù)進(jìn)行情景分析和敏感度分析。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of the aging of the population, the importance of the pension problem is becoming increasingly prominent, more and more elderly people will move into the pension institutions, which leads to a great increase in the demand for human resources in pension institutions. However, due to the low wage, heavy workload and social concept, the supply of human resources in pension institutions is far from enough. This contradiction of supply and demand seriously affects the development of pension institutions in China. It is important to study the supply and demand of human resources for the aged institutions in China to promote the sustainable development of the pension institutions in China. Based on the theory of human resource motivation-health care, expectation theory and Maslow's demand theory, this paper uses literature research method, statistical method and system dynamics method to study. First of all, using the method of literature research, collect and organize the related research results in the field of pension institutions and human resources, and summarize the current situation of human resources of pension institutions in China; secondly, The SPSS statistical software is used to analyze the supply and demand factors in the system and to estimate the parameters. Finally, the VENSIM system dynamics software is used to use the causality diagram. The establishment of flow chart and structural equation is used to forecast the supply and demand of human resources in pension institutions in 2013-2045. Based on the simulation of system dynamics model, the trend of human resource supply and demand in China's pension institutions is obtained: first increasing and then decreasing, the maximum 0.9265. Then the paper makes a situational analysis and sensitivity analysis on the factors such as the occupancy ratio of pension institutions, the proportion of service personnel, the rate of salary growth, the proportion of financial expenditure of old-age services, and so on, and studies the effect of these factors on the supply and demand of human resources. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, such as increasing the government financial input, constructing the training system of professional medical and nursing personnel, and developing human resources of volunteers. There are two main innovations in this study: one is the innovation of content, that is, the supply and demand of human resources system of pension institutions in China are studied, the other is the innovation of methods. The system dynamics method is used to simulate the supply and demand system of human resources in pension institutions, to calculate the supply and demand of human resources under the condition of balance of supply and demand, and to analyze the situation and sensitivity of the key parameters in the system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6

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