特朗普政府對華“掛鉤”政策探析
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-25 06:15
【摘要】：特朗普政府執(zhí)政以來,中美關系實現了平穩(wěn)過渡。在備受矚目的中美元首海湖莊園會晤期間,雙方以構建新的高層對話機制為依托,以在經貿及朝核等重要議題領域達成合作共識為契機,推動中美關系邁入了一個新階段。不難看出,特朗普政府的對華外交呈現出鮮明的"交易型"特征,其問題導向性和去意識形態(tài)化的戰(zhàn)略思維,一方面使中美兩國可以更為務實地應對雙邊關系中的挑戰(zhàn),另一方面也引發(fā)了不少擔憂,特別是一些分析認為特朗普政府的對華政策暗含不確定性和風險。文章認為,特朗普政府的對華政策實質上反映出一種在美國外交中兼具思想源流與歷史經驗的"掛鉤"政策,其核心是與主要戰(zhàn)略競爭者在關乎美國核心利益的重要戰(zhàn)略領域進行全方位協(xié)調與合作,并將雙方在某一領域的合作同其他領域的合作以至于雙邊關系整體進行掛鉤,從而在約束對方行為的同時維護美國的利益。從思想源流看,該政策繼承了漢密爾頓式的現實主義傳統(tǒng),將國家利益而非意識形態(tài)作為對外戰(zhàn)略立足點。從歷史經驗看,該政策往往是在美國處于"雙重弱勢"地位——美國國際戰(zhàn)略地位處于弱勢、總統(tǒng)國內政治地位處于弱勢——之時,面對主要戰(zhàn)略競爭者的優(yōu)先選擇。對于"掛鉤"政策的理論與歷史分析,可以為我們理解當今美國的對華戰(zhàn)略帶來不少現實啟發(fā),并為中國制定應對策略提供可靠的邏輯線索。
[Abstract]:Since the Trump administration came to power, there has been a smooth transition between China and the United States. During the high-profile meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States, the two sides took the establishment of a new high-level dialogue mechanism as the basis, and reached a consensus on cooperation in the fields of trade, economy, and the DPRK's nuclear program as an opportunity to push Sino-US relations into a new stage. It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's diplomacy with China has a distinctive "transactional" characteristic, and its problem-oriented and deideological strategic thinking, on the one hand, enables China and the United States to deal more pragmatically with the challenges in bilateral relations. On the other hand, concerns have been raised, especially with some analysts suggesting that the Trump administration's China policy implies uncertainty and risk. The article holds that the Trump administration's China policy reflects in essence a policy of "linking" between the source of thought and historical experience in American diplomacy. Its core is to coordinate and cooperate in all directions with major strategic competitors in important strategic areas that concern the core interests of the United States, and to link their cooperation in one field with cooperation in other fields and even with bilateral relations as a whole. In order to restrain the behavior of the other side while safeguarding the interests of the United States. From the perspective of ideological origin, the policy inherits the tradition of Hamilton realism and regards national interests rather than ideology as its foreign strategic foothold. From the historical experience, this policy is often the first choice to face the main strategic competitors when the United States is in the "double weak" position, the American international strategic position is in the weak position and the president's domestic political position is in the weak position. The theoretical and historical analysis of the "hook" policy can bring us a lot of practical inspiration to understand the current American strategy towards China and provide a reliable logical clue for China to formulate its coping strategy.
【作者單位】： 復旦大學美國研究中心;
【基金】：筆者主持的2017年度上海市浦江人才計劃項目“冷戰(zhàn)后美國對外戰(zhàn)略演化的國內動因研究”(項目編號:17PGC014)的階段成果
【分類號】：D822.371.2
本文編號：2142886
[Abstract]:Since the Trump administration came to power, there has been a smooth transition between China and the United States. During the high-profile meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States, the two sides took the establishment of a new high-level dialogue mechanism as the basis, and reached a consensus on cooperation in the fields of trade, economy, and the DPRK's nuclear program as an opportunity to push Sino-US relations into a new stage. It is not difficult to see that the Trump administration's diplomacy with China has a distinctive "transactional" characteristic, and its problem-oriented and deideological strategic thinking, on the one hand, enables China and the United States to deal more pragmatically with the challenges in bilateral relations. On the other hand, concerns have been raised, especially with some analysts suggesting that the Trump administration's China policy implies uncertainty and risk. The article holds that the Trump administration's China policy reflects in essence a policy of "linking" between the source of thought and historical experience in American diplomacy. Its core is to coordinate and cooperate in all directions with major strategic competitors in important strategic areas that concern the core interests of the United States, and to link their cooperation in one field with cooperation in other fields and even with bilateral relations as a whole. In order to restrain the behavior of the other side while safeguarding the interests of the United States. From the perspective of ideological origin, the policy inherits the tradition of Hamilton realism and regards national interests rather than ideology as its foreign strategic foothold. From the historical experience, this policy is often the first choice to face the main strategic competitors when the United States is in the "double weak" position, the American international strategic position is in the weak position and the president's domestic political position is in the weak position. The theoretical and historical analysis of the "hook" policy can bring us a lot of practical inspiration to understand the current American strategy towards China and provide a reliable logical clue for China to formulate its coping strategy.
【作者單位】： 復旦大學美國研究中心;
【基金】：筆者主持的2017年度上海市浦江人才計劃項目“冷戰(zhàn)后美國對外戰(zhàn)略演化的國內動因研究”(項目編號:17PGC014)的階段成果
【分類號】：D822.371.2
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