發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-19 13:22

  本文選題：老齡化 + 老年照料�。� 參考：《華東交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)的逐步向前發(fā)展，人口老齡化問題日益突出。依據(jù)聯(lián)合國對于老齡化社會(huì)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，我國早在1999年就已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了老齡社會(huì)，預(yù)計(jì)2015年，老年人口總數(shù)將達(dá)到2.21億，占總?cè)丝诘?6%，人口老齡化的形勢嚴(yán)峻。與人口老齡化共同發(fā)展的是老年人的照料問題日益嚴(yán)峻。尤其是我國傳統(tǒng)家庭觀念的影響，在加上社會(huì)養(yǎng)老資源的缺乏，家庭照料成為老年人照料的主要模式。 本文主要對照料老年父母對子女就業(yè)狀況的影響進(jìn)行了探討。首先運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究的方法對國內(nèi)外關(guān)于老年人照料方式、老年人照料者、以及老年照料對子女就業(yè)關(guān)系方面進(jìn)行了文獻(xiàn)綜述，并且對于核心概念和相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行概述，以此作為本文研究的理論基礎(chǔ)。為了找到更適用于研究老年照料對子女就業(yè)影響的模型,本文著重研究Logistic回歸模型和線性概率模型(OLS)及離散選擇Probit模型的基本原理，以“中國營養(yǎng)與健康調(diào)查”（CHNS）為樣本進(jìn)行對比研究,重點(diǎn)利用比較與歸納相結(jié)合的研究方法，，對這兩個(gè)模型的有效性進(jìn)行對比并歸納總結(jié)。在探討老年照料對子女就業(yè)影響的過程中，使用Logistic回歸模型，并借助傾向值加權(quán)的方法對回歸模型進(jìn)行了穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)�；貧w結(jié)果表明，虛擬擬合效果較好，但不是很滿意。因此我們使用線性概率模型(OLS)及離散選擇Probit模型，選取“父母是否需要照護(hù)”和“兄弟姐妹數(shù)”兩個(gè)有效工具變量進(jìn)行兩階段最小二乘估計(jì)及工具變量Probit回歸，通過Durbin-Wu-Hausman檢驗(yàn)證明內(nèi)生性確實(shí)存在，回歸結(jié)果表明，Logistic回歸模型在對本文研究樣本的有效性上總體來說不如線性概率模型(OLS)及離散選擇Probit模型。在控制其他變量的情況下，子女老年照料者總體上相比非照料者有較低的勞動(dòng)參與率，女性子女老年照料者的勞動(dòng)參與率普遍低于男性子女老年照料者。 最后,根據(jù)上述分析結(jié)果,提出本文的研究結(jié)論,并結(jié)合實(shí)際情況針對性的提出相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the progressive development of the society, the problem of population aging has become increasingly prominent. According to the standards of the United Nations for the aging society, China has entered an aging society in 1999. It is expected that in 2015, the total population of the aged will reach 221 million, 16% of the total population, and the age of the population is grim. The common development of the population with the population aging is the same. The care problem of the elderly is becoming more and more serious. Especially the influence of traditional family concept in our country, and the lack of social endowment resources, family care has become the main model for the care of the elderly.
This paper mainly discusses the influence of the elderly parents on the employment status of their children. First, the literature review is used to make a literature review on the care of the elderly, the caregivers of the elderly, and the relationship between the elderly care for their children, and the core concepts and related theories. For the theoretical basis of this study, in order to find a more suitable model for the impact of elderly care on the employment of children, this paper focuses on the basic principles of Logistic regression model and linear probability model (OLS) and discrete choice Probit model. The comparative study on "China Nutrition and health survey" (CHNS) is a comparative study, focusing on the comparison. The effectiveness of the two models is compared and summarized. The Logistic regression model is used in the process of the influence of elderly care on children's employment, and the robustness of the regression model is tested with the weight weighted method. The regression results show that the effect of virtual fitting is good, but it is not good. So we use the linear probability model (OLS) and the discrete choice Probit model, select two effective tool variables, "whether parents need care" and "siblings number", carry out two stage least square estimation and tool variable Probit regression, and verify the existence of endogeneity by Durbin-Wu-Hausman test, and return the result table. In general, the Logistic regression model is less effective than the linear probability model (OLS) and the discrete choice Probit model. In the case of controlling other variables, the children and elderly caregivers generally have lower labor participation rate compared with non caregivers, and the labor participation rate of female children in the elderly is generally lower than that of the non caregivers. A male child and an elderly caregiver.
Finally, according to the above analysis results, the conclusions of this study are put forward, and relevant policy recommendations are put forward pertinent to the actual situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：D669.2;F249.2

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