本文選題：非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件 + 群體性事件��； 參考：《上海交通大學》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：科學構(gòu)建社會安全防范體系，著力解決由眾多深層社會矛盾累積而成，并且日漸多發(fā)的各類群體性事件，尤其是其中聚集規(guī)模更大、強度和烈度更高、且易于產(chǎn)生連鎖反應(yīng)、具有明顯復雜性特征和潛在衍生危害，嚴重危及社會秩序，同時運用常規(guī)管理方式難以應(yīng)對的非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件，既是當前加強和創(chuàng)新社會管理、構(gòu)建和諧社會、踐行科學發(fā)展觀的重要抓手和關(guān)鍵任務(wù)，也是理論研究持續(xù)關(guān)注的重點領(lǐng)域和熱點問題。深入探討我國非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件的內(nèi)在演化機理，尋找對于應(yīng)急決策具有實質(zhì)性、決定性作用的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)，對于指導政府相關(guān)部門的應(yīng)急決策實踐、提升群體性事件治理能力和水平具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義，，對于創(chuàng)新和發(fā)展公共危機與應(yīng)急管理理論體系具有一定的探索意義。 轉(zhuǎn)型時期我國社會結(jié)構(gòu)性張力和制度化利益表達機制有效性缺失的客觀現(xiàn)實，以及投射于社會心理并在日積月累中形成的社會怨恨構(gòu)成了非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件不斷發(fā)生、演化的社會情境。從社會矛盾的淤積、群體內(nèi)部能量的積聚、導火索事件的誘發(fā)，到最終演化為非常規(guī)群體性事件往往是一個高度動態(tài)性的復雜系統(tǒng)和社會過程。聚集人群規(guī)模的擴大、行為手段的升級、行為目標的轉(zhuǎn)移以及影響范圍的擴散成為其演化的重要表征體系。依據(jù)事件發(fā)生、發(fā)展的趨勢和路徑依賴可將其演化過程分為醞釀階段、激化階段、全面爆發(fā)階段以及平息階段。其中各類次生事件相互刺激、相互激勵、相互耦合、相互關(guān)聯(lián)，大體呈現(xiàn)出階段反復式演化、直線式演化、并行式演化以及循環(huán)式演化等各種演化路徑。 借用扎根理論方法，在對所選取的近年來我國非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件典型群案例進行逐一的數(shù)據(jù)信息收集、比較、聚類和編碼分析基礎(chǔ)上，可以得出導火索事件情景刺激、導火索事件社會認知、聚集群體結(jié)構(gòu)以及聚集群體心理四個在演化過程中重要且重復出現(xiàn)的關(guān)鍵影響因素。其中導火索事件情景形成對聚集群眾的強烈外部刺激，社會認知和集體解讀成為其行為選擇的中介變量，群體結(jié)構(gòu)和群體心理則直接推動非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件的演化升級。 基于群體動力學理論，導火索事件雙方的力量對比和行為表現(xiàn)、事件耦合度、時空環(huán)境、政府干預(yù)效果、政治風險和同類事件示范效應(yīng)作為外源動力提供演化的外部條件和推動力，導火索事件社會認知、群體結(jié)構(gòu)、群體情緒、集體效能感作為內(nèi)生動力形成演化的基礎(chǔ)和原動力。依據(jù)作用的性質(zhì)和效果，可進一步細分為正向外源動力、負向外源動力、正向內(nèi)生動力和負向內(nèi)生動力，非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件的演化正是在上述群體力場中各種動力相互影響、相互作用的結(jié)果。 在前述研究基礎(chǔ)上，建立非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件演化的各個要素之間復雜關(guān)聯(lián)或因果序列的理論假設(shè)，結(jié)合湖北石首事件的真實案例，設(shè)計調(diào)查問卷，實地調(diào)研收集數(shù)據(jù)，運用結(jié)構(gòu)方程建模技術(shù)驗證假設(shè)，辨明各個要素分別作為自變量、因變量、中間變量的交互作用關(guān)系，總結(jié)和歸納出非常規(guī)群體性突發(fā)事件演化的一般規(guī)律。
[Abstract]:Scientific construction of social security prevention system, and efforts to solve the accumulation of many deep-seated social contradictions, and the growing number of various groups of mass events, especially in which large scale, intensity and intensity is higher, and easy to produce chain reaction, with obvious complex characteristics and potential derivative harm, seriously endangering the social order, at the same time transportation. Unconventional group emergencies which are difficult to deal with by conventional management are not only the important grippers and key tasks of strengthening and innovating social management, building a harmonious society and practicing Scientific Outlook on Development, but also the key areas and hot issues of continuous attention in theoretical research. The internal performance of unconventional mass emergency in China is discussed in depth. It is of great practical significance to guide the emergency decision-making practice of the relevant government departments and improve the ability and level of group event management. It is of great significance to the innovation and development of the theoretical system of public crisis and emergency management.
The objective reality of social structural tension and the lack of effectiveness of institutional interest expression mechanism in the period of transition, as well as the social resentment that is projected on the social psychology and accumulated in the accumulated months, constitute the continuous occurrence of unconventional mass emergencies and the social situation of evolution. From the accumulation of social contradictions, the accumulation of energy within the group, and the guidance of the social situation. It is often a highly dynamic complex system and social process that the trigger of the fire cord events, and the eventual evolution into the unconventional group events. The expansion of the population size, the upgrading of the behavior means, the transfer of the behavior targets and the diffusion of the influence range become the important characterization system of its evolution. The path dependence can be divided into the brewing stage, the intensification stage, the full explosion stage and the rest stage, in which the secondary events stimulate each other, encourage each other, interact with each other, and relate to each other, and generally present a variety of evolutionary paths, such as repeated evolution, linear evolution, parallel evolution and cyclic evolution.
By using the method of grounded theory, on the basis of data information collection, comparison, clustering and coding analysis of the selected typical group cases of unconventional Group Emergencies in China in recent years, we can get the stimuli of the scene of the fuse event, the social cognition of the fuse event, the group structure and the group psychology of four. The important and repeated key influencing factors in the process of transformation are the intense external stimulus to the crowd, the social cognition and the collective interpretation become the intermediary variables of their behavior selection, and the group structure and group psychology directly promote the evolution and upgrading of unconventional group emergencies.
Based on the group dynamics theory, the force contrast and behavior performance of the two sides of the fuse, the event coupling, the time and space environment, the effect of government intervention, the political risk and the demonstration effect of the similar events provide the external conditions and impetus for the evolution of the evolution, and the social cognition, the group structure, the group mood, the collective efficacy of the fuse events. Based on the nature and effect of the action, the evolution of endogenous dynamics can be further subdivided into positive exogenous power, negative exogenous power, positive endogenous and negative endogenous dynamics. The evolution of unconventional mass emergencies is the result of interaction and interaction of various dynamic forces in the group force field above.
On the basis of the previous research, we set up the theoretical hypothesis of the complex association or causality sequence among the elements of the unconventional group emergencies, and combine the real cases of the Hubei Shishou event, design the questionnaire, collect the data in the field, verify the hypothesis by using the structural equation modeling technique, and identify the factors as independent variables, The general rule of the evolution of unconventional mass incidents is summarized and concluded by the interaction between the dependent variables and the intermediate variables.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：D631.43

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