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基于KLEMS模型的能源投入結(jié)構(gòu)效應研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-04-24 12:28

  本文選題:能源投入 + 結(jié)構(gòu)效應 ; 參考:《產(chǎn)經(jīng)評論》2016年02期


【摘要】:近年來,中國工業(yè)部門出現(xiàn)難以化解的能源與環(huán)境矛盾,能源投入結(jié)構(gòu)改革勢在必行。首先,基于供給方視角提出并論證了能源投入作為生產(chǎn)要素對工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響機理。具體而言,在中國能源投入增長率大于勞動力增長率的背景下,工業(yè)部門能源投入份額的差異會引發(fā)產(chǎn)出增長率的差異,進而產(chǎn)生結(jié)構(gòu)變動效應。然后,基于RAS方法及結(jié)構(gòu)離差方法界定了供給角度下中國工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)主體變動路徑,并發(fā)現(xiàn)變動的主要驅(qū)動因素是技術(shù)的變化;基于KLEMS模型及思想界定了工業(yè)部門能源投入狀態(tài),分兩個時期研究了22個工業(yè)部門能源投入狀態(tài)及變動情況。最后依據(jù)影響機理,將兩方面研究結(jié)果結(jié)合在一起分別從動態(tài)、靜態(tài)兩個角度考察能源投入對中國工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)能源投入促進了4個工業(yè)部門結(jié)構(gòu)變動,對4個工業(yè)部門結(jié)構(gòu)變動具有一般性影響,并對14個工業(yè)部門結(jié)構(gòu)變動產(chǎn)生擾動性影響。在分析產(chǎn)生擾動性影響原因的基礎(chǔ)上,提出建立能源價格市場機制、消除能源效率差異、優(yōu)化能源投入結(jié)構(gòu)等三大應對措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, there are insoluble conflicts between energy and environment in China's industrial sector, so it is imperative to reform the structure of energy input. Firstly, the mechanism of energy input as a factor of production on industrial structure is proposed and demonstrated from the perspective of supply side. Specifically, under the background that the growth rate of energy input in China is larger than that of labor force, the difference of energy input share in industrial sector will lead to the difference of output growth rate, and then produce structural change effect. Then, based on the RAS method and the structural deviation method, this paper defines the main changing path of the industrial structure in China under the supply angle, and finds that the main driving factor of the change is the change of technology, and based on the KLEMS model and the thought circle, the energy input state of the industrial sector is determined. The energy input status and changes in 22 industrial sectors were studied in two periods. Finally, according to the influence mechanism, we combine the two aspects of research results from the dynamic and static perspectives to investigate the impact of energy input on China's industrial structure. The results show that energy investment promotes the structural changes of four industrial sectors. It has a general effect on the structural changes in 4 industrial sectors and a disturbing effect on the structural changes in 14 industrial sectors. On the basis of analyzing the causes of disturbance, the paper puts forward three countermeasures, such as establishing the market mechanism of energy price, eliminating the difference of energy efficiency and optimizing the structure of energy input.
【作者單位】: 黑龍江科技大學經(jīng)濟學院;中國社會科學院數(shù)量經(jīng)濟與技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究所;
【分類號】:F426.2

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