本文關(guān)鍵詞： 制造業(yè)PMI 本底趨勢線 X-A-S 損失評(píng)估　出處：《統(tǒng)計(jì)研究》2016年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：2008年金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國制造業(yè)造成巨大沖擊,對(duì)危機(jī)的影響進(jìn)行評(píng)估對(duì)于建立科學(xué)的危機(jī)預(yù)防機(jī)制具有重要的意義。本文運(yùn)用X-13A-S模型將我國制造業(yè)PMI進(jìn)行分解,研究各成分在危機(jī)期間的波動(dòng)情況,分析金融危機(jī)的動(dòng)態(tài)演變過程并構(gòu)建本底趨勢線進(jìn)行損失評(píng)估,最后劃分金融危機(jī)的生命周期。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)X-13A-S模型對(duì)指數(shù)調(diào)整效果較好,長期波動(dòng)趨勢分為三個(gè)時(shí)期;季節(jié)成分波動(dòng)表現(xiàn)為"三波峰、三波谷";異常值與危機(jī)事件相對(duì)應(yīng)。(2)金融危機(jī)全面爆發(fā)前期PMI指數(shù)損失5.11%,平均損失1.28%;爆發(fā)后期指數(shù)損失49.31%,平均損失4.11%,本輪危機(jī)共損失54.42個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。(3)2008年1月至4月為金融危機(jī)生成期,2008年5月至12月為全面爆發(fā)期,2009年1月至5月為衰退期,2009年6月至8月為消亡期,整個(gè)危機(jī)持續(xù)16個(gè)月。(4)金融危機(jī)全面爆發(fā)時(shí)期以8月份為分界點(diǎn),表現(xiàn)出"前期趨勢-循環(huán)成分,后期不規(guī)則變動(dòng)"的動(dòng)態(tài)機(jī)制。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the financial crisis had a great impact on the manufacturing industry of our country. It is of great significance to evaluate the impact of the crisis for the establishment of a scientific crisis prevention mechanism. This paper uses X-13A-S model to decompose the PMI of our manufacturing industry. This paper studies the fluctuation of various components during the crisis, analyzes the dynamic evolution process of the financial crisis, constructs a background trend line for loss assessment, and finally divides the life cycle of the financial crisis. The trend of long-term fluctuation is divided into three periods; the seasonal component fluctuates as "three peaks," "three troughs"; abnormal value corresponds to crisis event.) PMI index loss 5.11, average loss 1.28 before the financial crisis broke out; Index loss 49.31, average loss 4.11, average loss 54.42 percentage points from January 2008 to April. The period from May 2008 to June 2009 is a full-blown period, the period from January 2009 to #date鈪，

本文編號(hào)：1545599