銅是贊比亞經(jīng)濟的支柱。從20世紀20年代采礦活動開始以來,銅出口在該國出口和外國收入的占比最大。然而,大多數(shù)人認為銅對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方案的貢獻不夠,遠遠低于國民的期望。他們將當前的失敗歸因于銅價波動、國際市場力量、所有權、政府無能以及新自由主義的后果。鑒于建立和經(jīng)營銅礦所需的大量費用,該國在很大程度上依賴外國資本。在贊比亞開采的銅礦中,很大一部分是在一個未經(jīng)國內企業(yè)加工后出售,這剝奪了該國的額外收入。本研究利用Persaran和Shin（1999）提出的協(xié)整邊界方法,研究了贊比亞銅出口價格對贊比亞經(jīng)濟增長的影響。據(jù)說贊比亞的經(jīng)濟依賴于銅礦開采,經(jīng)濟人士分析假設贊比亞的經(jīng)濟增長依賴于外部國際銅價。這有點問題,因為它吸收了決策者和政府的責任,以產(chǎn)生可持續(xù)增長。為了驗證這一假設的有效性,本研究估計了一個以銅價為關注變量的自回歸分布滯后（ARDL）模型。估算結果表明,從長期來看,經(jīng)濟增長取決于實物資本、匯率、通貨膨脹、原油價格、政府支出和農業(yè)生產(chǎn)率;國際銅價僅在短期內影響增長。因此,只要有適當?shù)囊?guī)劃和戰(zhàn)略政策干預,贊比亞即使在國際銅價下跌的情況下,仍然能夠實現(xiàn)更高的可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟增長。 

【文章來源】：江西財經(jīng)大學江西省

【文章頁數(shù)】：40 頁

【學位級別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
摘要
ABSTRACT
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION
    1.1 Background Information
        1.1.1 Theoretical background
    1.2 Statement of the problem
    1.3 Objectives of the study
        1.3.1.Specific Objectives
    1.4 Significance of the study
    1.5 Organization of the study
CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW
    2.1 Theoretical literature
        2.1.1 The Solow-swan model
    2.2 Empirical literature
        2.2.1 The impact of copper export prices on economic growth
        2.2.2 Macroeconomic determinants of economic growth
CHAPTER THREE OVERVIEW OF THE ZAMBIAN ECONOMY
    3.1 Economic prospects
    3.2 Zambia’s Gross domestic product
    3.3 Economic growth
    3.4 The Role of Copper Mining
CHAPTER FOUR METHODOLOGY
    4.1 Theoretical framework
    4.2 Data
    4.3 Models and the Estimation techniques used
        4.3.1 Unit-root tests
        4.3.2 The Autoregressive distributive lags model（ARDL）
        4.3.3 Bounds test
    4.4 Research hypotheses
CHAPTER FIVE ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT
    5.0 Descriptive statistics
    5.1 Unit root test
    5.2 ARDL model estimations
    5.3 Diagnostic tests
    5.4 Bounds test
    5.5 The cointegrating equation
    5.6 Discussion of results
        5.6.1 Dynamics of economic growth
        5.6.2 What Determines economic growth
    5.7 Conclusion
CHAPTER SIX POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Policy implications
    6.1 Economic growth policies
    6.2 The impact of copper prices
    6.3 Conclusion
REFERENCES



本文編號：3143704