【摘要】：近年來,隨著人民生活水平的提升,旅游業(yè)得到了空前的發(fā)展。旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)是服務(wù)型產(chǎn)業(yè),作為景區(qū)管理人員必須及時的了解游客的數(shù)量和需求,才能為景區(qū)制定好長期的旅游規(guī)劃。因此,如何準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測景區(qū)旅游人數(shù)和評價景區(qū)當(dāng)前旅游資源是影響景區(qū)未來發(fā)展的兩個重要課題。本文歸納了旅游管理的研究現(xiàn)狀,然后具體以九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)為例,對當(dāng)前景區(qū)的旅游現(xiàn)狀進行評價,預(yù)測了未來幾年的旅游人數(shù),并針對評價結(jié)果解決了主要問題。本文的主要工作如下:1.本節(jié)對九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)的旅游資源進行評價,首先確定九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)旅游影響因子,運用層次分析法構(gòu)建了一個包含1個目標(biāo)層、3個準(zhǔn)則層和11個內(nèi)容層的評價指標(biāo)體系框架,采取問卷調(diào)查的形式,對九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)旅游資源進行評價并分析結(jié)果。2.游客數(shù)量預(yù)測是旅游發(fā)展規(guī)劃的重要內(nèi)容,本節(jié)以九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)近十年的游客數(shù)為基礎(chǔ),運用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和GM)1,1(模型分別對九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)旅游人數(shù)進行預(yù)測。實驗結(jié)果表明,BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對游客人數(shù)預(yù)測較為準(zhǔn)確,并以此預(yù)測未來五年內(nèi)九華山風(fēng)景區(qū)旅游人數(shù)。3.根據(jù)旅游資源評價的結(jié)果,目前景區(qū)待存在的最主要問題是節(jié)假日的交通流量問題,本節(jié)提出了一種基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)最大流理論的旅游流量控制模型,通過控制各條線路上的游客人數(shù),使得游客不再感到擁擠,并使得景區(qū)總接待人數(shù)達到最大。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the improvement of people's living standards, tourism has been unprecedented development. Tourism industry is a service-oriented industry. As a scenic spot manager, he must understand the number and demand of tourists in time in order to make a good long-term tourism plan for the scenic spot. Therefore, how to accurately predict the number of scenic spots and evaluate the current tourism resources are two important issues that affect the future development of scenic spots. This paper summarizes the research status of tourism management, and then takes Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot as an example to evaluate the current tourism situation of scenic spots, predict the number of tourists in the next few years, and solve the main problems according to the evaluation results. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1. This section evaluates the tourism resources of Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot, first determines the tourism impact factors of Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot, constructs an evaluation index system framework including 1 target layer, 3 criterion layer and 11 content layer by AHP, and evaluates and analyzes the tourism resources of Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot in the form of questionnaire. 2. The prediction of tourist number is an important part of tourism development planning. based on the number of tourists in Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot in recent ten years, this section uses BP neural network and GM) 1 (model to predict the number of tourists in Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot, respectively). The experimental results show that BP neural network is more accurate in predicting the number of tourists, and can predict the number of tourists in Jiuhua Mountain Scenic spot in the next five years. According to the results of tourism resources evaluation, the most important problem of scenic spots is the traffic flow problem of holidays. This section proposes a tourism flow control model based on the network maximum flow theory. By controlling the number of tourists on each route, tourists no longer feel crowded, and the total reception number of scenic spots reaches the maximum.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F592.7

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