【摘要】：本研究以2012-2013年長(zhǎng)江口魚類資源密度分布為基礎(chǔ),通過動(dòng)態(tài)生物氣候分室模型(DBEM)預(yù)估了不同氣候變化情景下(IPCC,RCP2.6、RCP6.0和RCP8.5)長(zhǎng)江口魚類資源密度增量分布的變化。在RCP2.6、RCP6.0和RCPS.5這3種氣候變化情景下,魚類資源密度增量、底層魚類資源密度增量隨著時(shí)間推移均呈遞增趨勢(shì),且遞增程度和增量重心分布范圍隨著溫室氣體排放的增加而擴(kuò)大(RCP8.5RCP6.0RCP2.6)。魚類資源密度增量重心主要分布在長(zhǎng)江口崇明島沿岸水域,長(zhǎng)江口外側(cè)水域資源密度增量相對(duì)較低,并且資源密度增量重心有向南遷移的趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Based on the density distribution of fish resources in the Yangtze Estuary from 2012 to 2013, the paper estimated the increment distribution of fish resources density in the Yangtze Estuary under different climate change scenarios (IPCCU RCP2.6 RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) by dynamic bioclimatic compartment model (DBEM). Under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 / RCP6.0 and RCPS.5, the increase of fish resource density and the increment of bottom fish resource density showed an increasing trend with the passage of time, and the increasing degree and increasing center of gravity distribution range expanded with the increase of greenhouse gas emission (RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP2.6). The density increment center of fish resources is mainly distributed in the coastal waters of Chongming Island in the Changjiang Estuary, and the increment of resource density in the outer waters of the Yangtze River Estuary is relatively low, and the center of gravity of the increment of the density of fish resources tends to migrate southward.
【作者單位】： 農(nóng)業(yè)部海洋漁業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室山東省漁業(yè)資源與生態(tài)環(huán)境重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室中國(guó)水產(chǎn)科學(xué)研究院黃海水產(chǎn)研究所;青島海洋科學(xué)與技術(shù)國(guó)家實(shí)驗(yàn)室海洋漁業(yè)科學(xué)與食物產(chǎn)出過程功能實(shí)驗(yàn)室;中國(guó)科學(xué)院海洋研究所;
【基金】：鰲山科技創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃(2015ASKJ02-05) 農(nóng)業(yè)部財(cái)政項(xiàng)目“黃渤海漁業(yè)資源調(diào)查” 山東省泰山學(xué)者專項(xiàng)基金共同資助
【分類號(hào)】：S931.1

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