本文選題：狹義/廣義水資源脆弱性　切入點：PSR指標集合　出處：《華北電力大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：氣候變化和人類活動對我國水資源系統(tǒng)的影響不斷加深,出現(xiàn)水資源短缺、水環(huán)境污染、水土流失、旱澇事件頻繁等一系列問題,水資源系統(tǒng)表現(xiàn)出強烈的脆弱性。本文對水資源脆弱性理論與應用進行了研究。主要研究內(nèi)容及成果如下： (1)根據(jù)人類社會對水資源系統(tǒng)是否采取適應性措施,將水資源脆弱性分為狹義水資源脆弱性(Narrow Water Resources Vulnerability,簡稱NWRV)和廣義水資源脆弱性(General Water Resources Vulnerability,簡稱GWRV)。 (2)運用問題樹模型定性分析我國水資源脆弱性問題；在定性分析基礎上,建立水資源脆弱性PSR (pressure-state-response,簡稱PSR)指標集,分別用PS和PSR評價狹義和廣義水資源脆弱性；并提出水資源脆弱性閾值評價方法；運用閾值、最嚴格水資源管理制度以及供需平衡理論,提出水資源脆弱性的綜合適應管理模式。 (3)以我國西北內(nèi)陸區(qū)生態(tài)問題存在最為嚴重的河西走廊地區(qū)及其疏勒河、黑河、石羊河三個流域為例進行水資源脆弱性評價。運用問題樹模型定性分析出河西走廊地區(qū)水資源脆弱性存在的主客觀因素。運用聚類中心確定標準化取值；運用層次分析法確定指標權重。 (4)對2000-2010年河西走廊地區(qū)及其三個流域的水資源脆弱性指標脆弱程度、脆弱性結果、各指標貢獻率以及閾值進行分析。河西走廊及其疏勒河、黑河和石羊河三個流域GWRV均處于重度脆弱,均值分別為0.7341、0.6876、0.7092、0.7653。河西走廊地區(qū)NWRV和GWRV呈現(xiàn)平行變化規(guī)律；GWRV反映具有人類適應性措施的脆弱程度,相對NWRV平均有8.86%的下降空間,更能代表實際現(xiàn)狀的水資源系統(tǒng)的脆弱程度。受人為因素影響較大的指標貢獻率為65%左右,其中以水資源開發(fā)利用率、萬元GDP用水量、畝均用水量這三個指標為關鍵指標。在較為理想的A1模式下,河西走廊地區(qū)的水資源脆弱性閾值下限為0.2367,為輕度脆弱；若發(fā)展控制不好,按照B1模式,河西走廊地區(qū)水資源脆弱性上限為0.9528,為極脆弱。 (5)以2020年為情景年,在20%、50%、75%、95%四種來水頻率下,運用閾值、最嚴格水資源管理制度、供需平衡以及綜合適應管理四種理論,對河西走廊地區(qū)水資源脆弱性進行適應管理研究。結果表明,閾值管理模式較為理想；最嚴格水資源管理制度和供需平衡在根本上不能改變河西走廊地區(qū)水資源脆弱狀態(tài)；綜合適應管理能使河西走廊地區(qū)水資源脆弱呈中等脆弱狀態(tài),但需要從降低農(nóng)業(yè)用水總量、水資源利用總量和萬元GDP用水量等方面采取措施。 本文創(chuàng)新的地方主要體現(xiàn)在水資源脆弱性的概念、問題樹分析、指標評價集、閾值評價方法、綜合適應管理以及針對河西走廊及其三個流域進行系列年和情景年評價等方面。本文針對水資源脆弱性理論與應用的研究,能夠為政府水利相關部門進行水資源規(guī)劃管理提供決策支撐。
[Abstract]:The impact of climate change and human activities on water resources system in our country and the deepening of emergence of the shortage of water resources, water pollution, soil erosion, drought and flood events frequent a series of problems such as water resources system showed a strong vulnerability. In this paper, and use of water resources vulnerability theory. The main research contents and the results are as follows:
(1) according to the adaptability measures of human society to water resources system, the vulnerability of water resources can be divided into Narrow Water Resources Vulnerability (Resources) and generalized water resources vulnerability (General Water Resources Vulnerability, referred to as GWRV).
(2) the use of qualitative problem tree model analysis the vulnerability of water resources in China; on the basis of qualitative analysis, the establishment of water resource vulnerability in PSR (Pressure-State-Response, PSR) index set, respectively PS and PSR evaluation of narrow sense and Guang Yishui resources vulnerability; and put forward water resources vulnerability assessment method using threshold threshold; and the most strict water resources management system and the balance of supply and demand theory, the vulnerability of water resources comprehensive management mode to adapt.
(3) to the northwest area ecological problems in China is the most serious area of Hexi Corridor and the Shule River, Heihe, three case of Shiyang River Basin water resources vulnerability assessment. Using qualitative problem tree model analysis of water resources in Hexi corridor the fragility of the subjective and objective factors. Using the cluster center to determine the standard values; use AHP to determine the index weight.
(4) in Hexi Corridor Area for 2000-2010 years and three watershed water resources vulnerability index of vulnerability and vulnerability results, each index contribution rate and threshold were analyzed. The Hexi Corridor and the Shule River in Heihe, and three in Shiyang River Basin GWRV are severe fragile, respectively NWRV and GWRV mean 0.7341,0.6876,0.7092,0.7653. in Hexi Corridor showed parallel changes; GWRV reflects the degree of vulnerability of human adaptation measures, compared to the NWRV average of 8.86% of the decline in space, the vulnerability of water resources system can represent the actual situation. The influence factors of large index contribution rate is about 65%, the rate of development and utilization of water resources, water consumption of ten thousand yuan GDP mu, the three indexes of water as the key indicators. In the ideal A1 mode, fragile Hexi Corridor Area Water Resources threshold limit of 0.2367, mild crisp Weak, if the development control is not good, according to the B1 model, the upper limit of water resources vulnerability in the Hexi corridor area is 0.9528, which is extremely fragile.
(5) in 2020 for the scene in 20% years, 50%, 75%, 95% and four, using the threshold value, the frequency of runoff, the most stringent water management system, supply and demand balance and comprehensive management to adapt to the theory of four kinds of water resources in Hexi Corridor Area of vulnerability to management research. The results show that the threshold is an ideal management mode; the most strict water resources management system and the balance of supply and demand in the fundamental change of water resources in Hexi corridor can not adapt to the fragile state; comprehensive management of water resources in Hexi corridor area can make the fragile ofmoderate vulnerable state, but from the need to reduce the total amount of water for agriculture, water resources utilization and the total amount of yuan GDP water consumption of such measures.
This article innovation place mainly in the water resource vulnerability concept, problem tree analysis, evaluation index set, threshold evaluation method, comprehensive management and adapt to the series and scenario evaluation for years in Hexi Corridor and the three basin. This article research on vulnerability theory and application for water resources, can provide decision support for the relevant government departments of water conservancy planning of water resources management.

【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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