本文關鍵詞：基于水足跡的京津冀水資源合理配置研究　出處：《中國地質大學(北京)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 京津冀 水足跡 虛擬水 系統(tǒng)動力學 產(chǎn)業(yè)結構 優(yōu)化配置

【摘要】：京津冀位于中國資源型缺水地區(qū),以不足全國的0.7%的水資源,承載著全國約8%的人口、6%的糧食生產(chǎn)和10%的GDP,水資源問題制約著京津冀地區(qū)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本研究在核算了1994-2013年京津冀地區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè)、生活、生態(tài)環(huán)境和虛擬水貿(mào)易五個部門水足跡基礎上,建立了水資源優(yōu)化配置系統(tǒng)動力學模型,然后通過四種產(chǎn)業(yè)政策情景仿真分析,找出水資源優(yōu)化配置方案,最后通過水分生產(chǎn)力排名,確定產(chǎn)業(yè)調整的種類與數(shù)量,促進京津冀地區(qū)水資源供需平衡。主要工作與貢獻體現(xiàn)在以下三點:(1)采用CROPWAT模型和用水定額法核算出京津冀地區(qū)水足跡。區(qū)域整體用水量發(fā)生顛覆性變化,水足跡總量為1770×108m3,是該地區(qū)實體用水的7倍,人均水足跡為1383 m3/yr,是人均實體用水的5倍。地區(qū)之間差距巨大,河北省水足跡為1523×108m3,北京市(138×108m3),天津市(108×108m3),分別是三地實體水用量的8倍、4倍和5倍;人均水足跡河北省為2226 m3/yr,在全國31個省份中排名第二位,天津市(999 m3/yr)和北京市(941 m3/yr)低于中國平均水足跡值。產(chǎn)業(yè)之間差異巨大,農(nóng)業(yè)用水比例為75.4%,生態(tài)環(huán)境用水(18.3%),其中,肉類、禽蛋類和糧食類產(chǎn)品水足跡是農(nóng)業(yè)用水主體;植樹造林用水為生態(tài)環(huán)境部門主體。(2)構建了基于水足跡的京津冀地區(qū)水資源配置系統(tǒng)動力學模型。模型劃分為六個子系統(tǒng),即供水子系統(tǒng)、農(nóng)業(yè)子系統(tǒng)、工業(yè)子系統(tǒng)、生活子系統(tǒng)、生態(tài)環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)和經(jīng)濟子系統(tǒng),涉及70個變量,模型通過了系統(tǒng)一致性檢驗、歷史數(shù)據(jù)檢驗和靈敏度檢驗,能夠反映出京津冀地區(qū)水資源配置時空變化規(guī)律。(3)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品總量下降50%情景是最優(yōu)水資源配置方案。該情景下,2030年京津冀地區(qū)可實現(xiàn)水資源供需平衡,虛擬水貿(mào)易在該地區(qū)水資源供應中占據(jù)重要地位,農(nóng)業(yè)部門用水下降8%,可節(jié)約用水總量為791×108m3。綜上,產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整政策建議為:(1)預測期內(nèi)畜產(chǎn)品實現(xiàn)進口50%為合理目標;(2)糧食產(chǎn)品在考慮地區(qū)安全情況下,通過改良灌溉方式實現(xiàn)節(jié)約用水85%;(3)棉花產(chǎn)品應逐步退出本地區(qū),實現(xiàn)全部進口;(4)改進植樹造林樹種結構,模擬自然林生長環(huán)境,減少水足跡。
[Abstract]:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is located in China's resource-based water shortage area, with less than 0.7% of the country's water resources, carrying about 8% of the population of China's grain production and 10% of the GDP. The problem of water resources restricts the sustainable development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This study calculates the agriculture, industry and life of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from 1994 to 2013. On the basis of ecological environment and water footprint of virtual water trade, the dynamic model of water resources optimal allocation system is established, and then through the simulation analysis of four industrial policy scenarios, the optimal allocation scheme of water resources is found. Finally, through the ranking of water productivity, the category and quantity of industrial adjustment are determined. To promote the balance of water resources supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The main work and contribution are as follows: 1). The CROPWAT model and the water quota method were used to calculate the water footprint of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The total water footprint is 1770 脳 108m3, which is 7 times of that of the real water in this area. The per capita water footprint is 1383 m3 / yrand 5 times that of the per capita solid water. The water footprint of Hebei Province is 1523 脳 108m3, that of Beijing is 138 脳 108m3, and that of Tianjin is 108 脳 108m3, which is 8 times and 5 times as much as that of solid water in the three places. Hebei Province has a per capita water footprint of 2226 m3 / yr. it ranks second among the 31 provinces in the country. Tianjin (999m3 / yr) and Beijing (941m3 / yr) are lower than China's average water footprint. There is a huge difference between industries, the ratio of agricultural water use is 75.4%. The water footprint of meat, poultry, eggs and grain products is the main body of agricultural water use. The dynamic model of water resources allocation system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on water footprint was constructed. The model was divided into six subsystems, that is, water supply subsystem and agricultural subsystem. The industrial subsystem, the life subsystem, the ecological environment subsystem and the economic subsystem, involving 70 variables, the model has passed the system consistency test, the historical data test and the sensitivity test. It can reflect the temporal and spatial variation of water resources allocation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In 2030, water supply and demand balance could be achieved in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Virtual water trade played an important role in water supply, and water consumption in agricultural sector decreased by 8%. The total amount of water saved is 791 脳 10 ~ 8m ~ 3. In summary, the industrial structure adjustment policy suggests that the reasonable target is to realize the import of 50% animal products in the forecast period. (2) under the consideration of regional safety, grain products can save 85% of water by improving irrigation method; Cotton products should be gradually withdrawn from the region to achieve full import; (4) improve the structure of afforestation tree species, simulate the growth environment of natural forest and reduce the water footprint.
【學位授予單位】：中國地質大學(北京)
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：TV213.4

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