化解庫存量對需求產能效率準確預測仿真
發(fā)布時間：2019-08-14 11:49
【摘要】：通過化解庫存量對需求產能進行預測,能夠有效解決我國產業(yè)發(fā)展中的產能過剩的問題。對需求產能的預測,需要給出庫存消化均衡因子,得到各個去庫存區(qū)域相似性矩陣,完成對產能需求的預測。傳統方法先獲取庫存預測指標權重,得到需求產能預測指標的區(qū)域相似性矩陣,但由于得到的矩陣參數混亂,導致預測精度低。提出基于加權偏離度統計的化解庫存量的需求產能預測。依據去庫存的約束的不同,結合調控對投機性需求的經驗合理選擇變量的權重,計算變量的加權偏離度,得到去庫存的性能預測指標,提取表征去庫存狀態(tài)的特征向量,給出去庫存區(qū)域內庫存消化均衡因子,組建評價各個去庫存區(qū)域相似性矩陣,完成需求產能的預測。仿真證明,選用方法預測精度和穩(wěn)定性較高,可以為發(fā)展地方經濟提供有力的依據。
[Abstract]:By resolving the inventory to predict the demand capacity, we can effectively solve the problem of overcapacity in the industrial development of our country. For the prediction of demand capacity, it is necessary to give the equilibrium factor of inventory digestion, obtain the similarity matrix of each de-inventory area, and complete the prediction of capacity demand. The traditional method first obtains the weight of inventory forecasting index and obtains the regional similarity matrix of demand capacity forecasting index, but because of the confusion of the obtained matrix parameters, the prediction accuracy is low. A demand capacity forecast based on weighted deviation statistics is proposed to solve the inventory. According to the different constraints of de-inventory, combined with the experience of regulating and controlling speculative demand, the weight of variables is reasonably selected, the weighted deviation degree of variables is calculated, the performance prediction index of de-inventory is obtained, the characteristic vector that represents the state of de-inventory is extracted, the inventory digestion equilibrium factor in inventory area is given, the similarity matrix for evaluating each de-inventory area is established, and the prediction of demand capacity is completed. The simulation results show that the prediction accuracy and stability of the selected method are high, which can provide a powerful basis for the development of local economy.
【作者單位】： 江西科技師范大學數字化社會與地方文化發(fā)展中心;
【基金】：2014年江西省藝術科學規(guī)劃項目(YG2014065)
【分類號】：O227
本文編號：2526555
[Abstract]:By resolving the inventory to predict the demand capacity, we can effectively solve the problem of overcapacity in the industrial development of our country. For the prediction of demand capacity, it is necessary to give the equilibrium factor of inventory digestion, obtain the similarity matrix of each de-inventory area, and complete the prediction of capacity demand. The traditional method first obtains the weight of inventory forecasting index and obtains the regional similarity matrix of demand capacity forecasting index, but because of the confusion of the obtained matrix parameters, the prediction accuracy is low. A demand capacity forecast based on weighted deviation statistics is proposed to solve the inventory. According to the different constraints of de-inventory, combined with the experience of regulating and controlling speculative demand, the weight of variables is reasonably selected, the weighted deviation degree of variables is calculated, the performance prediction index of de-inventory is obtained, the characteristic vector that represents the state of de-inventory is extracted, the inventory digestion equilibrium factor in inventory area is given, the similarity matrix for evaluating each de-inventory area is established, and the prediction of demand capacity is completed. The simulation results show that the prediction accuracy and stability of the selected method are high, which can provide a powerful basis for the development of local economy.
【作者單位】： 江西科技師范大學數字化社會與地方文化發(fā)展中心;
【基金】：2014年江西省藝術科學規(guī)劃項目(YG2014065)
【分類號】：O227
【相似文獻】
相關期刊論文 前6條
1 王海霞,湯文成,鐘秉林;零部件最優(yōu)庫存量控制的研究[J];系統工程學報;2000年03期
2 潘德均;王書田;;機會價格下最佳庫存量的確定[J];軟科學;1989年01期
3 劉樹人;胡奇英;;庫存/定價系統下的最優(yōu)拍賣與訂購[J];系統工程;2007年03期
4 沈璇璇;王傳洋;呂蓉;大橋由雄;;倉庫設施布置及庫存量優(yōu)化研究[J];蘇州大學學報(工科版);2010年02期
5 陳志國 ,楊美廉;計算合理商品庫存量的兩種方法[J];統計;1987年08期
6 韓向陽;于慶年;;差分方程在研究商品庫存與價格系統穩(wěn)定性上的一個應用[J];遼寧財專學報;1993年02期
，本文編號：2526555
本文鏈接：http://www.sikaile.net/kejilunwen/yysx/2526555.html
