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基于隨機過程和競爭失效理論的可靠性建模方法

發(fā)布時間:2018-06-12 05:03

  本文選題:可靠性 + 競爭失效; 參考:《蘭州理工大學》2017年碩士論文


【摘要】:在工程領域當中,隨著運行時間的增加,由于機械產(chǎn)品自身性能的衰退和環(huán)境沖擊作用,會使產(chǎn)品發(fā)生失效。在此失效過程中,產(chǎn)品既有可能由于自身的性能衰退造成退化失效,也可能由于環(huán)境沖擊造成突發(fā)失效,產(chǎn)品的失效是由于最先出現(xiàn)的模式引起的?紤]到在運行過程當中,產(chǎn)品的退化是一個連續(xù)的過程,使用隨機過程對產(chǎn)品的退化過程進行描述,可以更好地對產(chǎn)品進行可靠性評估。本文主要討論退化過程和沖擊過程同時存在的產(chǎn)品的可靠性,基于隨機過程和競爭失效理論的描述,建立產(chǎn)品可靠度模型。首先,綜述可靠性與競爭失效的相關背景,介紹可靠性建模的相關理論和特點。給出退化模型的基本概念和可靠性建模過程的分析步驟。對存在沖擊過程的產(chǎn)品進行介紹,對現(xiàn)有的沖擊模型進行描述。其次,在產(chǎn)品的運行使用過程中,沖擊不僅會使產(chǎn)品的失效閾值降低,而且會使產(chǎn)品的退化速率加快;谙嚓P假設以及競爭失效的相關理論,建立了產(chǎn)品在極端沖擊模型下的可靠度模型,該模型認為產(chǎn)品的失效閾值為某一固定閾值。采用微機電系統(tǒng)的相關理論數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行驗證,最終驗證了模型的合理性。最后,進一步考慮在產(chǎn)品使用過程中,沖擊不僅會影響產(chǎn)品的整體失效過程,還會對其自身性能退化量產(chǎn)生一定影響,并且在失效過程中,產(chǎn)品的失效閾值為某一隨機值。根據(jù)這一條件,考慮沖擊對退化的影響以及失效閾值的隨機性,建立產(chǎn)品的競爭失效可靠性模型。使用極大似然估計對相關參數(shù)進行估計,對所建立模型取不同參數(shù),計算可靠度。
[Abstract]:In the engineering field, with the increase of running time, the mechanical products will fail due to the degradation of their own performance and the impact of environment. In the process of failure, the product may either degenerate due to its own performance decline or cause sudden failure due to environmental impact. The failure of the product is caused by the first mode. Considering that the degradation of the product is a continuous process in the running process, the stochastic process can be used to describe the degradation process of the product, which can better evaluate the reliability of the product. This paper mainly discusses the reliability of the products which exist simultaneously in the degradation process and the impact process. Based on the description of the stochastic process and the competitive failure theory, the reliability model of the product is established. Firstly, the related background of reliability and competitive failure is summarized, and the related theories and characteristics of reliability modeling are introduced. The basic concepts of the degenerate model and the analytical steps of the reliability modeling process are given. The products with impact process are introduced and the existing impact models are described. Secondly, the impact will not only reduce the failure threshold of the product, but also accelerate the degradation rate of the product. Based on the relevant hypothesis and the theory of competition failure, the reliability model of the product under extreme impact model is established. The model considers that the failure threshold of the product is a fixed threshold. Finally, the rationality of the model is verified by using the relevant theoretical data of MEMS. Finally, in the process of product use, the impact will not only affect the overall failure process of the product, but also have a certain impact on its own performance degradation, and in the process of failure, the failure threshold of the product is a random value. According to this condition, considering the impact on degradation and the randomness of failure threshold, the model of competitive failure reliability of products is established. The maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the related parameters, and different parameters are taken to calculate the reliability of the established model.
【學位授予單位】:蘭州理工大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:TB114.3

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