發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-09 19:33

  本文選題：埃博拉病毒病 + SEIR傳染病模型　； 參考：《大連工業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年03期

【摘要】：為研究埃博拉病毒病的流行規(guī)律和發(fā)展趨勢(shì),選用世界衛(wèi)生組織(WHO)發(fā)布的利比里亞(Liberia)從2014年5月25日至11月16日的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),分別對(duì)控前和控后兩個(gè)階段建立SEIR傳染病模型,模型中的傳染率參數(shù)在采取控制措施后發(fā)生變化。利用最小二乘法擬合及Matlab軟件,模擬傳染病流行趨勢(shì),擬合最優(yōu)參數(shù)值,并給出仿真圖。對(duì)干預(yù)措施開(kāi)始時(shí)間作敏感度分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)累計(jì)最大感染人數(shù)對(duì)其呈指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)規(guī)律,模型預(yù)測(cè)每延遲1d開(kāi)始干預(yù)措施,累計(jì)最大感染人數(shù)會(huì)增加200多人。得出基本再生數(shù)的公式,控前R0=1.43,控后R1=0.2,說(shuō)明采取的宣傳教育、追蹤隔離等控制措施是有效的。
[Abstract]:In order to study the epidemic pattern and development trend of Ebola virus disease, the SEIR epidemic model was established from May 25 to November 16, 2014 with the statistical data of Liberia published by World Health Organization (WHO) from May 25 to November 16, 2014. The infection rate parameters in the model change after taking control measures. By using least square fitting and Matlab software, the epidemic trend of infectious diseases is simulated, the optimum parameter value is fitted, and the simulation diagram is given. The sensitivity analysis of the intervention at the beginning time showed that the cumulative maximum number of infections increased exponentially, and the model predicted that the cumulative maximum number of infections would increase by more than 200 people with each delay of one day to start the intervention. The formula of the basic number of regeneration is obtained, the control measures before and after control are 1.43 and 0.2respectively, which shows that the control measures such as propaganda and education, tracking and isolation are effective.
【作者單位】： 沈陽(yáng)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)理學(xué)院;
【基金】：遼寧省教育科學(xué)規(guī)劃課題(JG16DB389) 中華農(nóng)業(yè)科教基金教材建設(shè)研究項(xiàng)目(NKJ201503031) 遼寧省教育廳科學(xué)研究項(xiàng)目(LSNYB201609)
【分類號(hào)】：O175
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本文編號(hào)：1867136