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  本文關鍵詞： 風險評估 混合不確定性 蒙特卡羅 證據理論 模糊集理論　出處：《北京航空航天大學學報》2017年12期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：在定量化風險評估中,針對變量分布參數存在依賴時的混合不確定性傳播問題,提出一種考慮分布參數完全依賴、部分依賴以及獨立傳播情形的雙層混合不確定性刻畫與傳播框架,內外層分布參數不確定性分別用概率分布與可能性分布刻畫,采用蒙特卡羅模擬法與模糊擴展原則相結合的數值求解方法。針對認知不確定性分布參數依賴性,構建了統(tǒng)一的認知不確定性分布參數依賴性模型,并給出依賴性系數的概念。為實現認知不確定性分布參數獨立性采樣,設計了基于D-S證據理論與隨機集相結合的不確定性傳播算法,相比于概率刻畫下的雙層蒙特卡羅方法,計算代價有效降低。以某型氫氧發(fā)動機貯箱共底漏氣率為算例,驗證本文方法的有效性與可行性。
[Abstract]:In quantitative risk assessment, a new method is proposed to solve the problem of mixed uncertainty propagation when variable distribution parameters depend on each other. In the case of partial dependence and independent propagation, the two-layer mixed uncertainty characterization and propagation framework, the inner and outer layer distribution parameter uncertainty are described by probability distribution and probability distribution respectively. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method and fuzzy extended principle, a unified model of cognitive uncertainty distribution parameter dependence is constructed for the parameter dependence of cognitive uncertainty distribution. In order to realize the independent sampling of cognitive uncertainty distribution parameters, an uncertainty propagation algorithm based on D-S evidence theory and random set is designed. Compared with the double-layer Monte Carlo method under probability characterization, the computational cost is reduced effectively. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are verified by an example of air leakage rate in the common bottom of a hydrogen-oxygen engine tank.
【作者單位】： 裝備學院裝備發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略研究所;中國衛(wèi)星海上測控部;
【分類號】：O211;V434
【正文快照】： 網絡出版地址:kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2625.V.20170324.1604.008.html引用格式:段永勝,趙繼廣,陳鵬,等.考慮分布參數依賴的風險混合不確定性分析方法[J].北京航空航天大學學報,2017,43(12):2439-2448.DUAN Y S,ZHAO J G,CHEN P,et al.Analysis method for hybrid uncert

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