【摘要】：以淮河紫羅山子流域出口日平均流量數據為研究對象,基于超閾值(POT)模型,采用最大似然法估計廣義Pareto(GP)分布參數并計算出重現期水平和相應的置信區(qū)間范圍。擬合優(yōu)度檢驗結果顯示POT模型在擴大洪水樣本提高使用效率的同時,對樣本經驗點據的適線性也較好。通過對5種時段長度的水文實測流量數據重現期計算發(fā)現:實測數據長度對重現期計算結果不確定性有重要影響,在工程水文中推薦選取恰當的置信區(qū)間上界作為設計值加以解決。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of daily average discharge at the outlet of Ziluoshanzi basin of Huaihe River, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution parameters based on the super-threshold (POT) model, and the level of recurrence period and the corresponding confidence interval range are calculated. The results of goodness of fit test show that the POT model not only expands the flood sample to improve the efficiency, but also has a good linearity for the sample experience points. It is found that the length of the measured data has an important effect on the uncertainty of the calculated results through the calculation of the recurrence period of the hydrological measured discharge data of five periods of time. In engineering hydrology, it is recommended to select the appropriate upper bound of confidence interval as the design value to solve the problem.
【作者單位】： 環(huán)境保護部核與輻射安全中心;
【基金】：科技部國家軟科學研究計劃(2013GXS4B075) 環(huán)保部公益性行業(yè)科研專項(201309056)
【分類號】：TV122

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