【摘要】：為了定量評(píng)估埋地金屬管道腐蝕泄漏的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),將貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)和蒙特卡羅模擬方法用于計(jì)算管道腐蝕泄漏及擴(kuò)散范圍概率。建立了埋地金屬管道腐蝕泄漏貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),量化了各事件之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。在已知先驗(yàn)概率的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用貝葉斯概率計(jì)算得到管道腐蝕泄漏的后驗(yàn)概率值。利用蒙特卡羅模擬方法對(duì)泄漏后氣體擴(kuò)散范圍進(jìn)行了數(shù)值模擬,給出了主要模型變量的概率密度函數(shù),得到了擴(kuò)散區(qū)域范圍概率分布特征。研究結(jié)果表明,管道腐蝕泄漏過(guò)程受輸送介質(zhì)和土壤腐蝕性、防腐措施有效性和大氣擴(kuò)散條件的影響,具有較大的不確定性。分析方法考慮了模型參數(shù)隨機(jī)性對(duì)計(jì)算結(jié)果的影響,評(píng)估結(jié)果可以用于比較不同條件下埋地金屬管道腐蝕泄漏擴(kuò)散的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively evaluate the risk of corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline, Bayesian network and Monte Carlo simulation method are used to calculate the probability of corrosion leakage and diffusion range of buried metal pipeline. The Bayesian network of corrosion leakage of buried metal pipeline is established, and the correlation between the events is quantified. On the basis of known prior probability, the posterior probability value of pipeline corrosion leakage is obtained by using Bayesian probability. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the gas diffusion range after leakage. The probability density function of the main model variables is given, and the probability distribution characteristics of the diffusion region range are obtained. The results show that the corrosion leakage process of pipeline is affected by the corrosion of transport medium and soil, the effectiveness of anticorrosion measures and atmospheric diffusion conditions, and there is great uncertainty. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the randomness of the model parameters on the calculation results, and the evaluation results can be used to compare the risk of corrosion leakage and diffusion of buried metal pipelines under different conditions.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)研究院;國(guó)家安全生產(chǎn)監(jiān)督管理總局信息研究院;
【基金】：中國(guó)安全生產(chǎn)科學(xué)研究院基本科研專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(2017JBKY13，，2016JBKY07)
【分類號(hào)】：TE988.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 蔣永清;任U

本文編號(hào)：2522366