【摘要】：海洋油氣開發(fā)是世界上公認風險最大的行業(yè)之一。海洋平臺作為油氣勘探開采的主要生產設施,所處環(huán)境惡劣,事故發(fā)生概率較高。在事故發(fā)生時應急撤離扮演保障人員生命安全的關鍵角色,因此開展相關研究對于提升我國整體海洋油氣應急水平具有重要意義。本文以海洋平臺人員應急撤離過程為研究對象,結合安全生產監(jiān)督管理總局2012年安全科技“四個一批”項目“南海深水油氣鉆井風險管理及應急關鍵技術研究”(2012-507)及中央高校基本科研業(yè)務費專項資金資助項目(14CX06130A),開展海洋平臺應急撤離風險分析與控制研究。1海洋平臺應急撤離風險致因分析統計分析海洋平臺應急撤離事故案例,判別燃爆、平臺傾覆、熱帶氣旋是應急撤離的主要誘發(fā)場景。結合應急撤離方式多樣性特點,基于TOPSIS構造海洋平臺應急撤離方式決策模型,通過工程實例驗證應用價值。以保障人員生命安全為目標,建立海洋平臺應急撤離響應模型,劃分子階段。采用EER HAZOP辨識不同階段人因、設備、環(huán)境和管理方面的風險因素,并利用DEMATEL量化因素邏輯關系,以方差和均值為依據設定合適閾值,繪制風險因素主要關聯路徑圖。2海洋平臺應急撤離人因可靠性定量分析結合模糊數學和CREAM方法,構造海洋平臺應急撤離人因可靠性風險分析模型,明確人因可靠性任務分析步驟、共同績效條件評判標準、控制模式模糊函數及量化規(guī)則。基于事故調研結果和國外已有案例,重點定量評估泄漏燃爆、平臺傾斜、臺風三種典型事故場景的人因績效,預測人因失誤概率、篩選應急撤離關鍵步驟、辨識主要失效模式及受損認知功能。3海洋平臺應急撤離事故耦合風險分析以火災事故為例,結合工程資料建立海洋平臺疏散仿真數值模型,確定火災風險和人員疏散風險臨界準則。采用FDS軟件探究溫度、熱輻射、能見度、氣體濃度等主要指標的變化規(guī)律和危險區(qū)域范圍,確定主要疏散出口的可用安全時間和最小人員安全半徑。進一步借助EVAC模塊對比量化火災事故對海洋平臺人員疏散階段的風險耦合程度;為評估疏散路線動態(tài)風險,建立基于圖論的海洋平臺應急撤離路徑拓撲模型,分析疏散路徑網絡可靠性,結果表明平臺不同區(qū)域之間存在較為緊密換聯關系。基于Dijkstra算法尋求不同位置前往不同集合點的最短路徑方案,并給出考慮火災障礙、擁擠堵塞等常見情景的最優(yōu)路徑方案。4海洋平臺應急撤離安全屏障分析與優(yōu)化利用安全屏障技術理念,建立海洋平臺應急撤離響應安全屏障模型,劃分屏障功能,辨識屏障作用路徑,確定系統薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。結合RFID、ZigBee等信息化技術,提出開發(fā)海洋平臺人員應急管理系統的屏障優(yōu)化方案,能有效實現人員定位管理、疏散實時仿真、路徑優(yōu)化設計的功能集成,并完善系統框架設計。
[Abstract]:Offshore oil and gas development is recognized as one of the most risky industries in the world. Offshore platform, as the main production facility of oil and gas exploration and exploitation, is in a bad environment and has a high probability of accident. Emergency evacuation plays a key role in ensuring the safety of personnel in the event of accidents, so it is of great significance to carry out relevant research to improve the overall emergency level of offshore oil and gas in China. In this paper, the emergency evacuation process of offshore platform personnel is taken as the research object, combined with the 2012 Safety Science and Technology "four batch" projects of the State Administration of Safety production Supervision and Administration "Research on risk Management and Emergency key Technologies of Deep Water Oil and Gas drilling in the South China Sea" (2012 / 507) and the special funding project (14CX06130A) for basic scientific research expenses of central colleges and universities. The risk analysis and control of emergency evacuation of offshore platform are carried out. 1 the causes of emergency evacuation risk of offshore platform are statistically analyzed, and the cases of emergency evacuation accident of offshore platform are statistically analyzed, and the main inducing scenarios of emergency evacuation are identified, such as explosion, platform overturning and tropical cyclone. Combined with the diversity of emergency evacuation mode, the decision model of emergency evacuation mode of offshore platform is constructed based on TOPSIS, and the application value is verified by an engineering example. In order to ensure the safety of personnel, the emergency evacuation response model of offshore platform is established, and the molecular stage is divided into two stages. EER HAZOP is used to identify the risk factors of human factors, equipment, environment and management in different stages, and DEMATEL is used to quantify the logical relationship of factors. Based on the variance and mean value, the appropriate threshold is set up, and the main correlation path diagram of risk factors is drawn. 2 the reliability quantitative analysis of emergency evacuees of offshore platforms combined with fuzzy mathematics and CREAM method is used to construct the reliability risk analysis model of emergency evacuees of offshore platforms. The steps of human reliability task analysis, the evaluation standard of common performance conditions, the fuzzy function of control mode and the quantitative rules are clarified. Based on the results of accident investigation and existing cases abroad, the human performance of three typical accident scenarios, leakage explosion, platform tilt and typhoon, is evaluated quantitatively, the probability of human error is predicted, the key steps of emergency evacuation are screened, and the main failure modes and damage cognitive functions are identified. 3 the coupling risk analysis of emergency evacuation accident of offshore platform takes fire accident as an example and establishes the numerical model of evacuation simulation of offshore platform combined with engineering data. Determine the critical criteria for fire risk and evacuation risk. FDS software was used to explore the variation law and dangerous area range of the main indexes such as temperature, thermal radiation, visibility and gas concentration, and to determine the available safety time and the minimum safety radius of the main evacuation exit. Furthermore, with the help of EVAC module, the risk coupling degree of fire accident to the evacuation stage of offshore platform is compared and quantified. In order to evaluate the dynamic risk of evacuation route, a topological model of emergency evacuation path of offshore platform based on graph theory is established, and the reliability of evacuation path network is analyzed. the results show that there is a close switching relationship between different regions of the platform. Based on Dijkstra algorithm, the shortest path scheme for different locations to different assembly points is found, and the optimal path scheme considering fire obstacles, congestion and other common scenarios is given. (4) the safety barrier analysis and optimization of emergency evacuation safety barrier of offshore platform are carried out, the safety barrier model of emergency evacuation response of offshore platform is established, the barrier function is divided, the action path of barrier is identified, and the weak links of the system are determined. Combined with RFID,ZigBee and other information technologies, a barrier optimization scheme for the development of emergency management system for offshore platform personnel is put forward, which can effectively realize the functional integration of personnel positioning management, evacuation real-time simulation, path optimization design, and perfect the system framework design.
【學位授予單位】：中國石油大學(華東)
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE58

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