成品油消費稅稅率改變對消費需求的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-21 11:13
【摘要】：隨著人均可支配收入的提高和工業(yè)化進程加快,我國對成品油的需求也逐年上漲,2014年全國汽油的消費量為9776萬噸,柴油消費量為17165萬噸。成品油對經濟發(fā)展起著舉足輕重的作用,特別是對工業(yè)、農業(yè)、倉儲及運輸業(yè)尤為重要。從長遠來看,我國的成品油消費需求增長空間仍然較大。但是,油品消費需求的增加,不僅帶來了經濟的快速發(fā)展,也產生了負的環(huán)境外部效應,如碳氧化物、氮氧化物、二氧化硫、顆粒物等空氣污染物。如何在經濟發(fā)展與治理環(huán)境污染之間尋找一個平衡點呢?為環(huán)境付費,讓環(huán)境作為一種成本進入到消費者視線中,或許是解決之道。那么消費稅作為一種環(huán)境稅是否能夠有效影響成品油消費行為?影響成品油消費行為的因素主要有哪些呢?本文以成品油子目錄中的汽油和柴油消費稅為例,研究消費稅和消費需求之間的關系。考慮非理性消費行為,將消費稅和不含消費稅價格區(qū)別開來,以定量研究它們對于消費行為的影響程度。針對成品油消費稅和消費需求之間的關系,本文利用全國總的時間序列消費數(shù)據和20個省(市)的面板消費數(shù)據,綜合考慮影響消費行為的各種因素:不含消費稅價格、單位稅額(稅率)、人均可支配收入、物價指數(shù)、人均汽車擁有量、民生支出水平、城市化率、失業(yè)率、政策虛擬變量等。在多元線性回歸的基礎之上,通過建立雙對數(shù)線性模型,用普通最小二乘估計模型系數(shù),得出回歸方程,然后分析價格需求彈性和稅收需求彈性。在時序數(shù)據模型中,根據模型調整可決系數(shù)、t檢驗伴隨p值、回歸系數(shù)標準誤等方面挑選擬合效果較好的回歸模型,然后對模型進行了異方差、自相關等計量經濟學檢驗,再通過工具變量法,用國際原油價格替換成品油價格,驗證成品油價格的外生性問題,以確保模型正確建立。在面板數(shù)據模型中,同樣采用面板數(shù)據普通最小二乘方法估計全解釋變量模型的回歸系數(shù),然后通過捕獲不同地區(qū)的不同異方差性,對全解釋變量模型進行了改進。最后對模型結果進行了原因分析。文章通過建立成品油市場的雙對數(shù)模型,得出不含稅價格和稅率對消費需求的影響均為負,并且稅率改變對消費需求的影響要大于不含稅價格變動。從彈性角度來說,即為稅收的需求彈性大于不含稅價格的需求彈性,稅收具有凸顯性。人均可支配收入和時間虛擬變量對消費需求的影響也較顯著。面板數(shù)據捕獲了不同地區(qū)之間的異方差性,在一定程度上是對時序數(shù)據的改進。對比分析汽油市場和柴油市場的不同回歸系數(shù),文章發(fā)現(xiàn)稅收的凸顯程度不僅隨地區(qū)發(fā)生變化,還隨不同的消費市場發(fā)生變化。因此成品油消費稅能夠有效影響消費行為,減少空氣中碳排放量,達到“節(jié)能減排”、治理環(huán)境污染的目的。
[Abstract]:With the increase of per capita disposable income and the acceleration of industrialization, the demand for refined oil in China has increased year by year. In 2014, the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in China was 97.76 million tons and 171.65 million tons respectively. Oil products play an important role in economic development, especially in industry, agriculture, storage and transportation. In the long-term, our country's refined oil consumption demand growth space is still large. However, the increasing demand for oil products not only brings about rapid economic development, but also produces negative environmental externalities, such as carbon oxides, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter and other air pollutants. How to find a balance between economic development and environmental pollution control? Paying for the environment, let the environment as a cost to consumers, may be the solution. So, as an environmental tax, can consumption tax affect the consumption behavior of refined oil effectively? What are the main factors that affect the consumption behavior of refined oil? In this paper, the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand is studied by taking the consumption tax of gasoline and diesel in the subcatalogue of refined oil as an example. Considering irrational consumption behavior, the price of consumption tax is distinguished from that without consumption tax in order to quantitatively study their influence on consumption behavior. In view of the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand of refined oil, this paper makes use of total time series consumption data and panel consumption data of 20 provinces (cities) to consider all kinds of factors affecting consumption behavior: excluding consumption tax price. Unit tax (tax rate), per capita disposable income, price index, per capita car ownership, people's livelihood expenditure level, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, policy fictitious variable, etc. On the basis of multivariate linear regression, a double-logarithmic linear model is established, and the regression equation is obtained by estimating the coefficients of the model with ordinary least squares. Then, the elasticity of price demand and tax demand is analyzed. In the time series data model, according to the adjustment of the determinable coefficient, the t test accompanying p value, the standard error of regression coefficient and so on, the regression model with good fitting effect is selected, and then the econometrics tests of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and so on are carried out. Then, by means of tool variable method, the price of refined oil is replaced by the price of international crude oil, and the exogenous problem of oil price is verified to ensure the establishment of the model correctly. In the panel data model, the general least square method of panel data is also used to estimate the regression coefficients of the fully interpreted variable model, and then the full interpretation variable model is improved by capturing the different heteroscedasticity of different regions. Finally, the causes of the model results are analyzed. By establishing the double logarithmic model of the oil products market, the paper concludes that the influence of the price without tax and the tax rate on the consumption demand is negative, and the influence of the change of tax rate on the consumption demand is greater than the change of the price without tax. From the point of view of elasticity, that is, the demand elasticity of tax is greater than that of price without tax, and tax is prominent. The influence of per capita disposable income and time virtual variables on consumption demand is also significant. Panel data capture heteroscedasticity between different regions, to some extent, the improvement of temporal data. By comparing and analyzing the different regression coefficients of gasoline market and diesel market, it is found that the degree of tax salience varies not only with different regions, but also with different consumer markets. Therefore, the consumption tax of refined oil can effectively affect consumption behavior, reduce carbon emissions in the air, achieve "energy saving and emission reduction", and control environmental pollution.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.22;F812.42
本文編號：2284930
[Abstract]:With the increase of per capita disposable income and the acceleration of industrialization, the demand for refined oil in China has increased year by year. In 2014, the consumption of gasoline and diesel oil in China was 97.76 million tons and 171.65 million tons respectively. Oil products play an important role in economic development, especially in industry, agriculture, storage and transportation. In the long-term, our country's refined oil consumption demand growth space is still large. However, the increasing demand for oil products not only brings about rapid economic development, but also produces negative environmental externalities, such as carbon oxides, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, particulate matter and other air pollutants. How to find a balance between economic development and environmental pollution control? Paying for the environment, let the environment as a cost to consumers, may be the solution. So, as an environmental tax, can consumption tax affect the consumption behavior of refined oil effectively? What are the main factors that affect the consumption behavior of refined oil? In this paper, the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand is studied by taking the consumption tax of gasoline and diesel in the subcatalogue of refined oil as an example. Considering irrational consumption behavior, the price of consumption tax is distinguished from that without consumption tax in order to quantitatively study their influence on consumption behavior. In view of the relationship between consumption tax and consumption demand of refined oil, this paper makes use of total time series consumption data and panel consumption data of 20 provinces (cities) to consider all kinds of factors affecting consumption behavior: excluding consumption tax price. Unit tax (tax rate), per capita disposable income, price index, per capita car ownership, people's livelihood expenditure level, urbanization rate, unemployment rate, policy fictitious variable, etc. On the basis of multivariate linear regression, a double-logarithmic linear model is established, and the regression equation is obtained by estimating the coefficients of the model with ordinary least squares. Then, the elasticity of price demand and tax demand is analyzed. In the time series data model, according to the adjustment of the determinable coefficient, the t test accompanying p value, the standard error of regression coefficient and so on, the regression model with good fitting effect is selected, and then the econometrics tests of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and so on are carried out. Then, by means of tool variable method, the price of refined oil is replaced by the price of international crude oil, and the exogenous problem of oil price is verified to ensure the establishment of the model correctly. In the panel data model, the general least square method of panel data is also used to estimate the regression coefficients of the fully interpreted variable model, and then the full interpretation variable model is improved by capturing the different heteroscedasticity of different regions. Finally, the causes of the model results are analyzed. By establishing the double logarithmic model of the oil products market, the paper concludes that the influence of the price without tax and the tax rate on the consumption demand is negative, and the influence of the change of tax rate on the consumption demand is greater than the change of the price without tax. From the point of view of elasticity, that is, the demand elasticity of tax is greater than that of price without tax, and tax is prominent. The influence of per capita disposable income and time virtual variables on consumption demand is also significant. Panel data capture heteroscedasticity between different regions, to some extent, the improvement of temporal data. By comparing and analyzing the different regression coefficients of gasoline market and diesel market, it is found that the degree of tax salience varies not only with different regions, but also with different consumer markets. Therefore, the consumption tax of refined oil can effectively affect consumption behavior, reduce carbon emissions in the air, achieve "energy saving and emission reduction", and control environmental pollution.
【學位授予單位】：云南財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.22;F812.42
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