本文選題：鉆井作業(yè) + 風(fēng)險評價　； 參考：《西南石油大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：在石油行業(yè),鉆井作業(yè)是一項投資大,風(fēng)險高的工程。它的特點是多工種、多工序、連續(xù)作業(yè)、環(huán)節(jié)多、規(guī)模大、技術(shù)復(fù)雜。本文主要從鉆井作業(yè)現(xiàn)場人的不安全行為與物的不安全狀態(tài)兩方面來分析其中的不安全因素。鉆井作業(yè)是石油勘探與開發(fā)中的一個十分重要的環(huán)節(jié)與手段。近些年來石油勘探開發(fā)規(guī)模的不斷壯大,整個國家對石油的需求量增加,從而對鉆井作業(yè)的安全性要求逐漸提高。為了保證鉆井作業(yè)的安全,對其進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價勢在必行。 相比傳統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險評價方法,貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在堅實的數(shù)學(xué)基礎(chǔ)上克服了多態(tài)性、非獨立性、時序性等問題,通過概率圖形的方式直觀的表示元素、節(jié)點之間的依賴關(guān)系,具有雙向推理的性能,從而可以進(jìn)行前向預(yù)測分析以及后向的診斷分析。因而,本文進(jìn)行了貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在鉆井作業(yè)風(fēng)險評價中的研究,主要包括以下幾個方面： (1)了解國內(nèi)外有關(guān)風(fēng)險評價的研究現(xiàn)狀,對現(xiàn)有的風(fēng)險評價方法進(jìn)行比較。 (2)識別鉆井作業(yè)的風(fēng)險和確定風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。鉆井作業(yè)的風(fēng)險包括人的不安全行為和物的不安全狀態(tài)等影響因素。并根據(jù)鉆井安全等相關(guān)研究確定了風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 (3)采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法對鉆井作業(yè)的風(fēng)險隱患進(jìn)行分析；在鉆井作業(yè)風(fēng)險評價模型的結(jié)構(gòu)學(xué)習(xí)基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建出風(fēng)險評價的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖；在鉆井作業(yè)風(fēng)險評價模型的概率預(yù)測部分,使用Matlab計算出某個時間段內(nèi)鉆井作業(yè)現(xiàn)場的風(fēng)險概率,根據(jù)風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)對這個時間段的鉆井作業(yè)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險級別的歸類。 (4)綜合運用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的結(jié)構(gòu)學(xué)習(xí)和概率預(yù)測設(shè)計了貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)鉆井作業(yè)風(fēng)險評價模型。通過現(xiàn)有的安全評價系統(tǒng)中的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)對貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)險評價模型進(jìn)行驗證。 最后本文采用C/S結(jié)構(gòu)和.NET開發(fā)環(huán)境,在Windows環(huán)境下以Visual Studio2010為開發(fā)平臺,使用C#語言和Sql Server數(shù)據(jù)庫,對鉆井作業(yè)風(fēng)險評價模塊進(jìn)行設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:In the petroleum industry, drilling operation is a project with high investment and high risk. Its characteristics are multi work, multi process, continuous operation, many links, large scale, and complex technology. This paper mainly analyzes the unsafe factors in the two aspects of the unsafe behavior of the people in the drilling operation and the unsafe state of the objects. In the development of a very important link and means. In recent years, the scale of oil exploration and development is growing, the demand for oil is increasing in the whole country, thus the requirements for the safety of drilling operations are increasing gradually. In order to ensure the safety of drilling operations, it is imperative to evaluate the risk of the drilling operation.
Compared with the traditional method of risk assessment, Bayesian networks overcome the problems of polymorphism, non independence, timing, etc. on the basis of solid mathematics, which are intuitively expressed by the pattern of probability, and the dependence between nodes has the performance of bidirectional reasoning, so that the forward prediction analysis and the backward diagnosis can be analyzed. In this paper, the research of Bayesian network in risk assessment of drilling operation is carried out, mainly including the following aspects:
(1) to understand the research status of risk assessment both at home and abroad, and compare the existing risk assessment methods.
(2) identifying the risk of drilling operations and determining the criteria for risk assessment. The risk of drilling operations includes factors such as unsafe behavior of human beings and the unsafe state of objects, and the risk assessment standards are determined according to the related research of drilling safety.
(3) the Bayes network analysis method is used to analyze the risk of drilling operation, and on the basis of the structure learning of the drilling operation risk assessment model, the Bayesian network diagram of risk evaluation is built. In the probability prediction part of the drilling operation risk assessment model, the wind in a certain time period is calculated by using Matlab. Risk probability is classified according to the risk assessment standard for drilling operations in this time period.
(4) the Bayesian network drilling operation risk evaluation model is designed by using Bayesian network structure learning and probability prediction, and the Bayesian network risk evaluation model is verified by the relevant data in the existing security evaluation system.
At last, this paper adopts C/S structure and.NET development environment, and uses Visual Studio2010 as the development platform under Windows environment, uses C# language and Sql Server database to design and implement the drilling operation risk evaluation module.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TE28;TP18

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