本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)石油價(jià)格問(wèn)題的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

中國(guó)石油價(jià)格問(wèn)題的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型研究 摘要 近年來(lái)我國(guó)石油需求越來(lái)越大,價(jià)格不斷上漲,石油價(jià)格問(wèn)題已經(jīng)成為老百姓 關(guān)注的話題,所以本人選擇石油價(jià)格展開(kāi)研究,作一個(gè)計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方面的探討。通 過(guò)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)油價(jià)變動(dòng)的敏感性分析和石油生產(chǎn)消費(fèi)預(yù)測(cè),可以得出我國(guó)對(duì)石 油的依賴性越來(lái)越強(qiáng),我國(guó)石油供需缺口越來(lái)越大,石油保證度越來(lái)越低。這樣我國(guó) 的石油風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越高,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要來(lái)源于對(duì)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的不能為力。研究中國(guó)的石油價(jià) 格,昀好從研究世界石油價(jià)格出發(fā),比較國(guó)際和我國(guó)的情況。另外針對(duì)目前油價(jià)高 漲,國(guó)際上傳言是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)快需求膨脹導(dǎo)致,為中國(guó)能源威脅論煽風(fēng)點(diǎn) 火。對(duì)此,本文對(duì)國(guó)家油價(jià)的組成及波動(dòng)因素做了詳細(xì)的論述和分析,并建立國(guó)際 原油價(jià)格形成的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型,然后對(duì)國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)原油價(jià)格互動(dòng)關(guān)系做計(jì)量實(shí)證研 究,得出世界原油對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)原油影響較大而國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)國(guó)際影響較小的結(jié)論,反駁了國(guó)際 上的這種言論。昀后本文以成品油定價(jià)的現(xiàn)狀和國(guó)內(nèi)原油和汽油價(jià)格相關(guān)關(guān)系的計(jì) 量分析為例來(lái)探討我國(guó)成品油定價(jià)存在的問(wèn)題并給出一點(diǎn)意見(jiàn)和建議。關(guān)鍵詞:石油 價(jià)格 安全預(yù)測(cè) 計(jì)量分析 1 中國(guó)石油價(jià)格問(wèn)題的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型研究 ABSTRACT Along with the high - speed development of national economy, the dependence on international oil market is increasing. The balance of supply and demand of petroleum becomes a serious problem in China. And the price is the key problem. Therefore, we present several recommendations and projects for solving the contradiction between supply and demand of petroleum in China correspondingly based on constructing several dynamic models of oil production and consummation. The author suggests that we should enhance the efficiency of oil utilization, use c

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)石油價(jià)格問(wèn)題的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型研究，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。