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壓氣站增壓系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-25 01:17

  本文選題:壓氣站 切入點(diǎn):增壓系統(tǒng) 出處:《西南石油大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文


【摘要】:增壓系統(tǒng)作為壓氣站的核心組成部分,在整個(gè)輸氣管道系統(tǒng)中承擔(dān)著給天然氣增壓的重要任務(wù),它的安全與否直接關(guān)系到管道是否能保質(zhì)、保量、按時(shí)向下游用戶提供天然氣。目前國(guó)內(nèi)外還沒有建立起針對(duì)壓氣站增壓系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法,因此,對(duì)壓氣站增壓系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法研究,對(duì)于保障壓氣站增壓系統(tǒng)的安全運(yùn)行意義重大。 由于增壓系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜,各個(gè)組成部分相互影響,而以往的研究大多偏向于某個(gè)問題或某個(gè)設(shè)備,并未考慮到各個(gè)部分間的影響,因此有必要將整個(gè)增壓系統(tǒng)作為一個(gè)整體進(jìn)行研究。本文提出利用影響圖理論來對(duì)增壓系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),并將由燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)驅(qū)動(dòng)離心式壓縮機(jī)組成的增壓系統(tǒng)作為研究對(duì)象。首先,按照功能不同,將系統(tǒng)主要組成部分劃分為7個(gè)子系統(tǒng):離心式壓縮機(jī)本體、燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)本體、潤(rùn)滑系統(tǒng)、空氣系統(tǒng)、燃料氣系統(tǒng)、干氣密封系統(tǒng)、控制系統(tǒng);其次,在辨識(shí)出各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素基礎(chǔ)上,繪制出各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的影響圖及整個(gè)增壓系統(tǒng)的影響圖,并建立起增壓系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,根據(jù)概率影響圖推理算法推理出增壓系統(tǒng)發(fā)生故障的可能性值,考慮到其他因素對(duì)增壓系統(tǒng)的影響,同時(shí)建立了人為因素、管理因素、環(huán)境因素、設(shè)計(jì)因素與增壓系統(tǒng)的影響圖,分析出各個(gè)外部因素對(duì)增壓系統(tǒng)的貢獻(xiàn)度。再次,綜合考慮增壓系統(tǒng)故障后果所帶來的人員死亡、直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和無形損失,利用屬性綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法計(jì)算出整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的后果綜合嚴(yán)重度;最后,根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受準(zhǔn)則,結(jié)合增壓系統(tǒng)的實(shí)際運(yùn)行情況,繪制了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)矩陣圖,并將該方法應(yīng)用于南昌壓氣站增壓系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),所得結(jié)果與運(yùn)行實(shí)際相符。從而驗(yàn)證了該方法的合理性。 本文將概率影響圖引入進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),考慮了系統(tǒng)間相互影響,評(píng)價(jià)所得到的系統(tǒng)故障發(fā)生可能性比獨(dú)立考慮某個(gè)系統(tǒng)時(shí)有所增加,這與實(shí)際情況相符。
[Abstract]:As the core component of gas pressure station, the supercharging system undertakes the important task of increasing the pressure of natural gas in the whole gas transmission pipeline system. Its safety or not is directly related to whether the pipeline can guarantee the quality and quantity. Supplying natural gas to downstream users on time. At present, there is no systematic risk assessment method for pressurized gas station system at home and abroad. Therefore, the risk evaluation method for pressurized gas station supercharging system is studied. It is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of pressurized gas station supercharging system. Because of the complex structure of the turbocharging system, the components of the supercharged system interact with each other, but most of the previous studies tend to a problem or a certain equipment, and do not take into account the influence of each part. Therefore, it is necessary to study the whole turbocharging system as a whole. At first, according to the different functions, the main components of the system are divided into seven subsystems: centrifugal compressor body, gas turbine body, Lubrication system, air system, fuel gas system, dry gas seal system, control system. Secondly, on the basis of identifying the risk factors of each subsystem, the influence diagram of each subsystem and the influence diagram of the whole pressurized system are drawn. The risk evaluation index system of the turbocharging system is established, and the probability value of the supercharging system failure is inferred according to the probability influence diagram reasoning algorithm, considering the influence of other factors on the supercharging system, the artificial factor and the management factor are also established. Environmental factors, design factors and the influence diagram of the supercharging system, analyze the contribution of each external factor to the supercharging system. Thirdly, consider the death of personnel, the direct economic loss and the invisible loss caused by the failure of the supercharging system. The comprehensive consequence severity of the whole system is calculated by using the attribute comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, according to the acceptable risk criterion and the actual operation of the pressurized system, the risk matrix diagram is drawn. The method is applied to the risk assessment of the pressurization system of Nanchang Gas Compression Station, and the results are in agreement with the actual operation, which verifies the rationality of the method. In this paper, the probabilistic impact diagram is introduced to risk assessment, and the interaction between systems is considered. The probability of system failure is higher than that of considering a system independently, which is in accordance with the actual situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西南石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2015
【分類號(hào)】:TE97

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